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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Good morning from Tempe, where we'll hit 100 degrees again today, hopefully for the final time this calendar year.
12:22
I did an end of year update to the Top 100 Prospects list. The piece with all the writing is still with editing and will be published at some point today, but for now you can view the fresh list over on The Board.
12:24
Today is Fall League Media Day and also one of the last days remaining on the instructional league calendar, so this will likely be more of a 45 minute chat today so I have the option of hitting both.
Rube
12:24
What happens in an expansion draft and what excites you about it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
It probable the rules would be different from the last time MLB had one (like '96 ish I wanna say?) but essentially teams got to protect 15 players on their roster from selection. The expansion team(s) gets to take a player from each other club in "round one", and then those clubs get to protect a few more of their players before round two (I think it was three more guys)...
12:29
You pretty quickly end up in a spot where the expansion team is filling their big league roster spots with players on the fringe of the other clubs' rosters, older Triple-A guys as well as some prospects. Oh I think recent draftees are also carved out of the selection process, but I forget the specifics of that.
12:30
And it seems fun to me because, in a world where most teams' scouts cover a handful of orgs, I cover all of them, and weirdly have a very specific understanding of the player population that I think would make me particularly helpful in the room.
MarinersFan
12:31
How real is Colt Emerson's increased power this season? Seems like a lack of power has been his biggest flaw as a prospect
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
He has great bat speed and raw power, but his swing hasn't tended to allow him to tap into it in games. He's made some adjustments to his footwork that looks like they've got him in a better spot to do that, and I thought enough of the changes he made to elevate his FV grade on this update.
He went from the top of the 50 FV tier, to the top of the 55 FV tier
Matty G
12:32
Were you impressed with Sal Stewart's cup of coffee and playoff appearance? Where does he slot into Cincy's plans long term, he looked a bit sloppy at 1B, but is blocked by Steer there and blocked by Hayes at 3B.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
I like the kid a lot. He's a fiery, competitive SOB, he was beside himself yesterday after the game and taking responsibility for this and that even though he's the rookie in the locker room. His ability to match and barrel secondary stuff is great. I do worry that his build/athleticism is always going to make him a bit of a liability on defense, and I have questions about how he'll handle big league velocity. It looked to me like he had made some mechanical tweaks in effort to deal with fastballs better and I just won't know how those work out until we see him across as bigger sample.
12:36
In short, I still like the 45 FV I have on him, which is more of a 400 PA type role player, still a key cog on a competitive team but not a true every day, every situation type guy
Mitch
12:36
Are you putting any weight into Luis Pena’s struggles at High A? Or not a concern?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
I'm not too concerned, but the gap in his performance between Low and High A is big enough that there does need to be some reconciliation. I didn't think his pure Low-A stats were necessarily indicative of his actual ability (otherwise he'd be a top 5 prospect himself right now), the way his BABIP tanked after promotion explains some of the gap, but the doubling of his K% means something to do with *him* also changed...
12:42
In this case it was offspeed chase/miss, he offered at north of 40% of sliders and even more changeups. That's not good, and if it continues then I would say re-evaluation is perhaps needed.
TameImp
12:42
What did Yankees dev do with Cam Schlittler and how do you bottle it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
I don't know but they seem to have. On some level it makes perfect sense: he's an enormous, well-built guy who's athletic for his size. With dev this good (industry-wide, but especially NYY and a few others) your scouts get to go care about size and athletic traits that the org can later mold, and I think it's so much fun to scout that way.
12:46
I think NYY has preconceived notions about how they can help these guys get better before they draft them, either via physical conditioning or mechanical changes, and they make them during the first offseason they have with the player.
Philip
12:46
Has Cam Schlittler had the biggest jump in prospect rankings this year? Related, how much stock do you put in one transcendent outing?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:47
I mean, if he's going to sit 98+ for 150+ innings. I'm just glad I didn't have Roderick Arias ahead of him coming into the season. I felt like I was being aggressive with where I had him at the time but it was still too low. New York Yankees Top 45 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball
PCA’s stylist
12:48
Matt Shaw was graded at 60 raw but despite some dingers this man has no exit velo just hits fly balls. Were evaluators wrong or is he just not tapping into it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
Looks like I was heavy. Lemme look at '24 data real quick and see if it was nutty...
12:50
Stuff was average in '24, shame on me
Mark
12:51
What did you think of Early last night? Has your evaluation changed since his call up?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
He'll probably be on the Feb '26 hondo
SCJH
12:51
Do you think there's any pro scouting benefit to Arizona/Tampa from the fact that half the teams in the league have training complexes in each team's back yard, closer to top scouts/top brass?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
Yes
If your scouting director can literally hop in his car and see whoever, whenever...that's a big deal.
Keith (Connecticut)
12:51
Thanks Eric! Dax Kilby had some really impressive Low A numbers, but small sample size (81 plate appearances.) Am I wrong to boost my expectations for his ceiling?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
I was talking to an executive about him this week. This guy's team picked toward the back of the first round and had Dax in their mix but took someone else, they couldn't believe he lasted as long as he did after their pick. I haven't sat to dive deep into his post draft film but I had him ranked like 20 spots higher than he was drafted. I think he's a "stock up" guy" as far as the whole indsutry is concerned, but maybe not so much for me because I already stuffed him.
Garrett
12:54
Just wanted to get your thoughts on Seaver King heading to the fall league. It feels like an important developmental step to hear from other voices around baseball and hopefully improve his game.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
Yeah, I just want to watch him play defense and hopefully have a better quality of atbat than he did during the summer.
Luis Campusano
12:55
I know he isn't a prospect anymore, but is there anything to make of him leading the PCL in wRC+? Pads fan looking to drown my sorrow in any form of youthful hope.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
Betcha they trade him
12:57
There was moderate interest around the deadline and you can guess who might be in on him based on some recent rumor mill headlines. San Diego's posture around him at the deadline was purportedly weird. They' clearly don't care for him and he doesn't play, but they were reticent to move him, they valued him in trade talks more than they seemed to on the field by kind of a lot.
flightsongs
12:57
Big jump for Quintero on The Board! What caught your eye?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:57
His top hand is much more involved in his swing now than at the start of the season, I'm more confident he can actually turn on the baseball now.
Chadwick
12:57
What's the best place for the average fan to find minor league statcast numbers as well as things like contact%?
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