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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Howdy, y'all, it's cloudy and rainy here in Tempe as the weekend slate has been disrupted by the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla. We need to precip, though, so it's all good. Looks like starters for tomorrow's game got moved up a day? At least it appears Rhett Lowder has. Let's discuss...
Hazmat Corntail
12:03
Where do you see Jonathan Long fitting in long term with the Cubs, or does he need a trade? He seems pretty blocked right now
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
Multi-positional part time corner guy
Ben
12:04
Hey Eric, hope you’re doing well. Who are you most excited about seeing in the AFL and why is it Alfredo Duno?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
It's honestly just the guys I haven't seen, or at least haven't seen in a while, which is almost always players from orgs based in Florida.
12:06
Also, and perhaps this was already reported but clearly I'm off the socials so I don't know, Josue De Paula has a hammy thing and is probably a couple weeks out.
Jason
12:06
Hi, just want you to break down the difference between low contact power hitters Bryce Eldridge and Lazaro Montes. Why is one so high and one not ranked? Not debating the rankings as much as I’m curious what the difference is. Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Good question. Eldridge contact data: 67% overall, 78% in zone
Montes contact data: 62% overall, 68% in zone
12:07
For Eldridge we at least have several examples of players with contact rates that low who thrive:
Whereas there are none at the rates Montes makes. Like zero.
Miller
12:08
Would it be out of the ordinary for a new PBO/GM hire to enter an org and say, I wasn't as high on certain prospects in recent drafts that this team selected so let me use their value right now to flip for players I am more fond of?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
I kinda think this happened in San Diego right after they hired Preller with Trea Turner etc. I do think there are players in a new PoBO's org who they probably have preconceived notions and opinions about, and that one might be more inclined to move on from the players you don't like so much
I would be
Guest
12:10
Any new trends or developments that you are hearing that might be the next analytical leverage that teams try and explore?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
I wanna read Henry Abbott's new book and ask people about it
Guest
12:11
Is there anything new you've seen or intel received on Kaelen Culpepper based on the season he had?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Just the full season hit data, which is pretty positive from a contact standpoint and a shade below average from a power standpoint. My assessment of his defense is stronger now than when he was in college. Good prospect.
Kate
12:12
Not sure how much dope you've gotten on this year's DSL crop so far, but curious your thoughts on Kevin Alvarez's 2025.  To my eye, his year looked pretty good from a stat line perspective as he made a ton of contact and appeared to have a good approach and his huge frame would seem to portend big incoming power.  However, I think I heard the EV data was pretty meh.  How much do you rely on body projection for pop with a guy like this and how much do you take into account the current EV data (which obviously needs to be adjusted for age and level)?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
His current EV data is kinda meh but not *bad*, and you're right that an adjustment for the level alone needs to be made because guys in the DSL aren't throwing all that hard....
He's super duper projectable, I consider him an offseason top 100 candidate. My grade when he was coming out was pretty aggressive and he's at least held serve on that score.
George
12:14
I was very interested by Paul Tobinis interview on DC sports radio yesterday. Talked a lot about better marrying player acquisition with development. With your knowledge of the current state of the system and structure of the Nats, how long would that sort of change take to see results? Is it so broken that it’s more of a 3 year process?
RS
12:15
How are you ranking Josuar Gonzalez, Luis Hernandez, and Jhonny Level? Seem like very different paths to success for each.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
Oops, I'll don one after the other...
12:17
To George's question: It depends on what kind of player dev infrastructure they already have in place, both from a data warehousing and processing standpoint, as well as a technological one. If at least some of that stuff is already in place then I think we've seen from some recent regime changes, including in Boston under Breslow, that pitchers can be changed and improved really quickly. I would say by 2027 we'll wanna start looking at WSH arms with an attempt to recognize patterns of changes, maybe more thru 2028 as far as draft strategy is concerned.
12:18
For RS: Probably in that order. I could see Level sneaking into the back of the 50 FV tier, I thought he had the arm for SS but not all of my sources think he stays there. He's a smaller kid. Josuar was a little over-aggressive for me this fall but holy cow the tools, especially the defense. Looks like young Lindor on defense.
Kate
12:19
Did you get any looks at Letson after he came back late in the year?  If so, how did he look?  Is this a guy we're always going to need to ding FV-wise until he shows he can handle a certain amount of innings?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
i didn't see him. Lemme looks at the scout WhatsApp group real quick from the time period before he returned to affiliated ball to see if his name is on a lineup card from that week or two, I could maybe find someone who came across him...
12:21
But you're probably correct about the innings load thing. Much as I'd like the Picks to Click feather in my cap, the approach of having durable, proven, near-ready guys in the top 100 (like Parker Messick entering the year, for instance, and not some hard-throwing teenager in rookie ball) has been more correct
Letson is still maybe two years away from debuting, too. He's a post-2027 40-man add.
Devon
12:21
Hey Eric! I was curious about how you handle reports on makeup or behind the scenes stuff. Are there instances where you are privy to something that you might not be able to put in your written analysis?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
Yes. It cuts both ways, sometimes you learn the kid is great. For the bad stuff it can be complicated to cover because a) in attempting to do this job at the scale I do, I can't get thorough makeup reports for every single dude, and so applying it only for some guys feels wrong....
12:24
b) sometimes you feel icky for ding'ing a guy's grade based on stuff he's done because then you feel like you're quantifying the infraction. I did this with Verdugo a few years ago, wasn't great.
12:26
c) also I try to avoid anything that remotely resembles wrecking or seriously disrupting someone's life for clicks or clout, especially when they're such young people who are inevitably going to make mistakes. Sometimes qwhen the draft is involved and a player is falling for this or that reason you have to cover the infraction then, because it's having a baseball-related impact, I'm not just solely standing in judgement of whatever it was they did.
George
12:26
Really appreciated your piece on Fall league guys. I’m interested in whether Seaver King has shown anything more. The rest of his draft class seems to have passed him by, even if he was a relatively raw college bat.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
He's going to be an interesting one. Scout here already recognize the tools and athleticism, he hit the Charro Lodge the other day. I've had guys suggesting this and that fix to his swing to get him going... I know he had a rough year but I don't think he should be dismissed so quickly.
Mark S.
12:27
Hi Eric, how far off were either Elmer Rodriquez-Cruz or Jhostynxon Garcia from your top 100? What gains do they need to make next year to enter that territory? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
Password's chase is the lone thing there that I think will make his production fluctuate quite a bit. Elmer will probably be an offseason addition. He's a skinny, frail-looking guy but was pumping 97 late in the season, he has the tools to get lefties out even though he's breaking ball-oriented and throws them a ton of curveballs.. he's good and likely debuts in 2026...my kind of pitching prospect
Alex B
12:30
Is Tucker Musgrove a guy you could see rising up prospect lists this next year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
No doubt, touched 100 for me this week. Secondaries are just okay.
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