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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:01
Howdy from the kitchen island in Tempe, where I need to pour coffee #2 before we start.
Tyler
12:02
Hi, Eric! Where are you at on Colt Emerson? He made some nice swing adjustments this year (dropping the leg kick for a toe tap) that helped him stay on his backside better, and he handled the AAA promotion well, albeit in a small sample.
Eric A Longenhagen
I bet he factors into the Mariners big league middle infield next year
Thomas
12:02
Has your evaluation/prognostication on Teey Yesevage changed at all with his performance over the last month (in either direction)?
I don't really have a question, but...
12:02
Trey Yesavage?
Hazmat Corntail
12:03
Any thoughts on Yesavage’s postseason performance vis a vis the scouting report and expectations? I’ve only caught glimpses and it seems like he’s got the mental part down, but has had bouts with shakiness
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Monster splitter, probably better than my eval, and the unique height of his delivery seems to be helping him. He's great.
Dan S.
12:03
Thoughts on Enrique Bradfield Jr.? Very little power and some struggles against lefties, but good K:BB and he has set new max EVs in the AFL (107.1), which makes me hopeful he can at least tap into more gap-to-gap power. With plus speed and defense he could probably be a regular even with like an 80 to 85 wRC+, no?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
I like him, tend to think he's going to produce more like a low-end regular when you look at the six year window of control as a whole. Take a peek at the CF WAR leaderboard from the last half decade or so....
12:05
You don't start seeing players who SLG under .400 until way down the list, past where I'd be comfortable putting a 50 on the guy.
12:06
I really like Bradfield and agree he's going to be a contributor soon, I just see him more as a nine hole hitter than a Trea Turner type in CF
Hazmat Corntail
12:06
Dbacks are going to try out Lawlar in CF in winter ball. How do you see that working out?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
It's a great idea but I have no idea how it'll go. He can really run, so it might work.
Will
12:08
Do you ever feel detached from the goings on of the Major League game? I feel so with the A's + more interest in College Ball.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
When I first took this job I'd probably have told you that my understanding of the big league happenings would slip, but I don't think that's been the case. I watch and engage with big league games constantly. Some of that is because I get to be on a west coast schedule.
Balker Woohler
12:10
3 good innings in the AFL and I'm ready to fire up the Daniel Espino hype machine-- on a scale of 1 to Jose Pett how delusional am I?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
I think he could be a set-up man
GB
12:10
Any word on Jacob Steinmetz?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
I'll ask media relations folks, he's no longer on Salt River's roster but I am not aware why.
Alec
12:10
Will Gabriel Gonzalez have a shot to debut next season on a potentially thin Twins roster? My incredibly basic boxscore-watching tells me his overall production across the minor leagues improved notably compared to last season and he played his way up to AAA. What do the counting stats and basic measurables not say about his game?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
It's plausible, he needs to be put on the 40-man this offseason and he's in position to debut just by virtue of injuries and attrition. There are still a lot of guys ahead of him on the depth chart, though. Gotta give Rodriguez and Roden more runway than they've had, for instance.
12:17
Gonzalez stuff beyond the surface stats: The chase rate (over 30%) is a standard deviation worse than the big league average, he's kind of a squat guy. There are some warts, doesn't mean he's bad, in the top 100 mix this offseason but not a lock.
Logan
12:17
For the teams that are successful at scouting international players, how much of it do you think is having good scouts vs having good analytics vs pure luck?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Tough question, the recipe definitely has all three of those factors. I spoke with someone weeks ago who said the correlation between player bonuses and their performance has slipped since the latest changes to the rules, which makes sense when you consider that players are committing younger and younger and are therefore more volatile.
Big Fan
12:18
Thanks so much for your AFL update this week.  What have you seen from ATL's Jim Jarvis and LJ McDonough so far?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
Jarvis is playing a nice shortstop, compact athlete with a short swing, sees the ball well, looks like a contact-oriented utility guy.
12:20
McDonough it's a whacky, high-effort stride down the mound, funky arm stroke, deceptive fastball/slider combo with 20 or 30 grade command.
Scotty
12:20
Your AFL article had a positive write up about Jared Thomas. He still has a 15:1 K:BB ratio in the AFL. Is the approach the biggest issue with him right now?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
Real juice in his hands, still has room on his frame for strength. Volatile guy.
Logan
12:20
Would you 50 any prospects in the DSL this year other than Josuar Gonzalez?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
Maybe one or two more with deeper analysis needed during the offseason.
Lin
12:21
Thoughts on Chen-Wei Lin in the AFL so far?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
My first look was yesterday, and it was bad. Built and moves like an MLB starter, but was mechanically inconsistent yesterday, secondaries were generic. I'm not inclined to bury him off of yesterday, just means I need to see him again.
Dan S.
12:22
Nate George is listed as the Orioles #38 prospect, but BA has him in the Top 100 overall (78). He was a 16th round pick out of a cold-weather HS but he did nothing but hit in his pro debut with elite speed and good CF edfense. Is he a guy we should expect to see move up the FanGraphs list soon?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
I tend to be skeptical of the guys who can't turn on the ball at all. Looks like a speedy 5th OF to me.
Joe
12:23
What’s the best way to differentiate between an MILB player with too high a K% to be successful in MLB and one that can survive it. Alcantara and Caissie are both a little high, but clearly Judge adapted. Can those two? Thanks.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
Check the swinging strike rate, too. Someone's K% might be elevated because they run deep counts. The contact rate and swinging strike rate gives you a more isolated idea of the bat to ball skill. ALso watch to see if there's barrel feel. Judge and Shohei swing and miss a lot but you can still see them moving the barrel around in ways that max out the quality of their contact when they do connect. There are power-on-contact metrics (like xwOBAcon) not publicly available for many minor leaguers that help me parse the guys you're talking about.
NFP
12:26
Industry data question: when we see batter performance against velo, it's usually split at 93/94 mph - do teams do research every couple of years to verify that that's still the right threshold, or is that "just" average ML velo? The same goes for how teams do the sliding scale of EV vs contact%, etc. Anyway, did Kazuma Okamoto do better against velocity in 2025?
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