JotCast | Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

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Eric A Longenhagen

12:28

It's a good question. I think you can approach it a couple different ways at the same time. You can se the bar as "average mlb velo" and you can set the bar higher than that to perhaps get a better understanding of how the hitter would look at this time of year against better, rested pitching staffs. Your splits could also be "vertical fastballs" versus "lateral" ones....

12:30

Okamoto has done well the last two years combined versus 94+ mph velo: 475 pitches 93+ mph in that sample, he hit .294 with an OPS just shy of .900, 13% miss rate

tbone26

12:30

any updates to atsuki taniechi’s report? thoughts on his secondaries and how they’d play against mlb competition?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:30

Working on him today, actually, have nothing fresh on him as I sit here right now, will have updated info on the site next week.

Bencle Mens

12:30

What's your coffee setup?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:31

Just a drip machine, nbd

WWeis

12:31

Comp for Kayson Cunningham? Ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:31

The "Boy, this worked out exactly as well as it possibly could have" comp is lefty-hitting Placido Polanco

Jace, The Mind Sculptor

12:31

You mentioned Dax Kilby maybe being an offseason 45+... are you now ranking the HS draft day SSs Holliday, Willits... Kilby?... Carlson, JoJo Parker?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:32

I don't think Dax is a SS but I do think his hit tool is more stable than Carlson's (who is a 70 SS defender, tho)

Syndergaardengnomes

12:32

You never hear anyone talk about Nick Morabito (not even a 35+ grade), but he held his own in AA this year, and looks like he could at least be a 5th OF due to defense and speed. Any thoughts on him?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:32

Nate George copy and paste

flightsongs

12:32

Lots of ink spilled on Roki, but do you have any opinions on how the other rookies and recent grads in that Dodgers pen (Sheehan/Dreyer/Wrobleski/Henriquez/Klein) have progressed since you last published an eval of them?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:33

Sheehan looks like a real impact mid rotation guy, Dreyer should get some down ballot RoY votes, Wrobo was worse than I hoped this year, Henriquez I think will eventually be an 8th or 9th inning guy, Klein (at least what I saw) was pretty wild

Mike

12:34

Mendez not playing first in the AFL is a disappointment. He's behind like six guys for an OF job.... Could be still transition?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:34

Think he left due to reasons of bereavement. Looked good before that.

I think learning 1B from scratch in this league would be a big ask.

Tom, D

12:35

Juneiker Caceres backed 24 DSL and 25 Complex stats reasonably in low-A (SSS, of course) wondering what a realistic projection is for him? Table setting CF?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:35

More like contact-driven corner guy for me.

12:36

Like a Nootbaar type?

Kate

12:36

Zach Cole got some heat at the end of the year. Can he keep enough of the AAA contact gains to let the loud tools play at the MLB level?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:37

It's possible, he's yoked and quite athletic, guys with overt big league physicality are sometimes the ones who keep improving

Kate

12:37

Sounds like Morlando and Brailer have looked pretty awful in AFL. How far down are you moving these guys after this kind of showing?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:39

Yeah both those guys are really going through it out here. Brailer was clearly just no ready for this level of play. He's made procedural mistakes on defense, the pitches he decides to challenge have been pretty bad. But he's also a physical freak (like edge rusher build) with plus-plus bat speed, he's barely played, he's really young. Morlando looks like he was in the weight room too much and he's bulked up and lost twitch and flexibility.

I don't know how much both those guys will dip for me this offseason, but they will.

Damien

12:39

All the reports on George Lombard Jr are still glowing, but I'm getting nervous about his ability to put up numbers so far (outside of his 25' A+ stretch). Should I be??

Eric A Longenhagen

12:39

Gonna K a bunch, but plus shortstop D and power will play.

AstrosAllDayEveryDay

12:39

Do you think Walker Janek is coming up next year on opening day?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:39

That's too early, he couldn't catch a big league staff right now.

Insert Witty Name Here

12:40

If you could scout any pitcher or hitter in history when they started in A ball, who would you like to see?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:41

I don't think Roberto Clemente even played A ball so he might be a fraudulent answer.

John Olerud

12:41

Realistically, in your estimation which and how many of their MLB-ready or near-ready prospects (including guys who have already had a cup of coffee) can the Mariners rely on to provide ample production for them to rely on as roster stalwarts on a competitive team in 2026?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:43

I think they have enough MIF candidates to throw at the wall that two will emerge from the Young/Emerson/Arroyo cluster and help out somehow. I'd be surprised if Montes/Farmelo raced there fast enough to help out in '26.

Farmelo has serious juice btw

12:44

Hey Eric - Last year around this time, I asked you about Justin Crawford and you were concerned about his GB rate. Looks like the rate is still high, but he has pop. All indications are that the Phillies want him to be their leftfielder at some point next year (maybe Opening Day). My question is "should he be?". Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen

12:44

I'm still worried he's Zac Veen

The underlying metrics are great, but I worry he's gonna get absolutely worked by big league velo.

Mike

12:45

Do you know why Josue de Paula was removed from the AFL roster?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:45

Hammy

Trey

12:45