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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
1:06
but mostly I'm looking at data to do what you're describing. I'm looking at the gap between a hitter's overall chase, and what it looks like with two strikes. I'm looking at how often they swing versus pitches down the middle compared to the big league norm, i'm looking at chase splits against offspeed stuff
Some guys just stand there.
Tom
1:06
What % of 50 grade prospects pan out to be average regulars, and what % turn out to bevery good to elite?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:07
The bust rate for 50 FV prospects is pretty high, like 50%. By virtue of the definition of "elite" only one or two turn into that kind of player.
1:08
Like Judge was a 50 FV prospect who (from a time when I was reading comments) some people didn't think belonged on the list at all because of all the K's.
He's elite now.
Rangers fan
1:08
How did Murakamis defense look this past year?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:09
Below average but not intolerable. There are guys about as good as Murakami who play big league 3B regularly but you're gonna live with some plays a good 3B makes that he won't.
sodo mojo
1:10
Does Michael Arroyo have enough arm strength to play 4rd?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:10
He may not have the hands to play the infield at all.
(don't sweat typos like this btw, we all know what mojo meant)
Guest
1:11
Max Anderson just continues to hit everywhere he plays. How has the past year impacted his projections? Is he now being viewed as a legitimate everyday player? Or are there still holes that MLB pitching will exploit?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:11
I dig him more than a year ago, more on time to pull. Still chases too much and I think he's an outfielder, but he has barrel feel and real power.
Guest
1:11
Do you have any insights or heard any data on Kevin McGonigle's average/max exit velocities? I know there was a report of a foul 118mph ball at the AFL but I'm highly skeptical that he has that much raw power. I would guess 112-113 would be his max and 90-91 his average.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:12
Yeah he supposedly hit a foul ball really hard, he turned on it so much that you can't in good conscience say it's a repeatable skill in fair territory. Here are KMac's power numbers from the season:
1:15
113.3 max, 113.3 airborne max, 47% hard hit rate, 105 EV90. Those are plus, above average, and average, respectively.
On a big league scale.
Wade Boggs
1:15
Turducken or Deep Fried Turkey??  I'll take a bucket of fried chicken over both any day of the week.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:16
Small wet-brined turkey and a second, auxillary meat of some kind, like a ham or maybe tamales or something
Adam
1:16
Dylan Lesko has no command and it seems there is little hope of him gaining it.

Are you aware of any player who has had similar command issues and been able to overcome them to actually reach the Majors?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:16
Tyler Matzek
Daniel Bard
Sir Nerdlington
1:17
With the NCAA continuing to lose court cases and shoot themselves in the <redacted>, do you think we see changes to the draft pool in the next CBA to compete with D1 money or is this all working perfectly to transfer costs onto big 4 programs?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:18
In the view of MLB I think it's the latter. I think we'll see yet another affiliate eliminated in the next CBA, more development will occur at the Complexes (good for me as long as I live here, bad for baseball) and an attempt will be made to outsource development more to college programs. We may even end up with a one and done rule like the NBA instituted, or so I've heard from people in the game.
Phil
1:19
Last year there were reports of frustration among GMs that Breslow was overvaluing his prospects. Do you think that is generally true of him, or just a mismatch on specific guys? I know there are guys in the system that could be traded for, say, Joe Ryan--my question is, are there guys that Breslow is willing to trade who could be traded for Ryan?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:19
I think teams who take a hyper-analytical approach tend to hug their prospects a little too much, and Boston likely fits that bill. The padres are the other extreme.
2022 draft
1:20
Think any of the first round hitters get taken in the Rule 5 draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:22
A scout sent me a funny tweet from some guy who couldn't believe so many early 2022 first rounders were left unprotected. Any hitter taken in the rule 5 would have to fit a very specific need for a team to take them, I guess if someone needs a corner platoon outfielder maybe Cross is on the table? Otherwise, these guys have all been pretty bad.
Scott
1:22
What are your thoughts on Brayden Taylor’s struggles? And the likelihood that he can improve enough as a hitter to become a decent Big Leaguer?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:23
I like him about the same as I always have: plus glove 2B/3B, limited raw power but decent playable pop because of how his swing works, good athlete, still projectable and pretty young for a recent college draft. 45
Chase
1:23
Hey Eric, I've thought recently about the possibility of seeing any big league scouting pieces on Fangraphs. Is that something you guys have ever entertained? When a player graduates and plays in the majors for a few years, it tends to be just about looking at their data and trying to paint a picture using the data, but players change physically, gain skills over time. As an example, what would a periodic big league scouting report have said about Geraldo Perdomo over the last calendar year?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:25
I guess the How's My Driving pieces act as a sort of big batch version of this. People have liked in the past when I've scouted big leaguers, so I could see doing it. In Perdomo's report I'd highlight: Hey, this guy just continued to get bigger and stronger than I would have expected and he retained all of the baseball skills that made him a good prospect. We've also learned more about his personhood and the way he carries himself in the big league environment and not only can he handle it, but he thrives in it and became the emotional leader of a really talented team.
Okra
1:25
If a told told all their pitchers to throw 2-3mph slower on average, it would result ___% worse results and ____% fewer injuries?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:25
I don't think I'm smart enough to answer that.
Mike
1:26
Between a tough statistical year and the injury, 2025 wasn't a season to remember for Humberto Cruz. What were evaluators saying about him this year, and is he someone you're still as intrigued by as you were last offseason?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:29
He looked like a guy who I thought could be a top 100 prospect twelve months from now. My notes from May: 93-95 with big carry, commanded to the top of the zone, above-average slider, two bad changeups. Plus fb/sld/cmmd projection, mid-rotation ceiling, changeup could come based on the delivery and athleticism. Had surgery in august, see you in '27
Guest
1:29
Tigers retained Gleyber...can Professor McGonigle hack it at SS?  That seems to be his path at this point
Eric A Longenhagen
1:29
Not for me
Okra
1:29
Non-scouting, just there to enjoy the game.  What part of the stadium do you like to sit in?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:30
Same spot, I'm spoiled now.
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