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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Good morning from Tempe, happy to be home and back with you, let's get to it...
RS
12:04
Not a Giants fan, but I’m surprised Josuar Gonzalez isn’t considered a top 10 prospect. His batted ball metrics are impressive and the reports on his defense are even more impressive. Is it a proximity thing?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
The proximity and time-to-maturation pieces of it matter, yeah, and with that comes an added degree of uncertainty. Josuar is so young that aspects of how he's going to develop athletically and bodily are also more difficult to project at this time...
12:07
For instance, there was a point where Starlyn Caba's report was, "Elite defender, elite contact rate (like 90%) DSL SS."
12:09
I like Caba, but he's developed as an athlete in such a way (he's remained like 5-foot-9, he's a smaller guy) that limits his ceiling. SOmething like that *could* still happen to Josuar.
12:10
But there's also the outcome where he develops, physically, like Lindor. That Josuar even has that kind of ceiling is a special thing in the prospect space, even if it isn't the likeliest outcome.
12:11
That sort of right tail demands prioritization but idk if I think it's up at 10.
like 30? Still pretty aggressive but reasonable.
The Fifth Rule
12:12
If you had to take one rule-5 eligible position player, who would it have been?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
It would depend on what the roster needs, but in a vacuum, I like Cameron Cauley.
12:13
Like two guys I'd have taken if I were a team strictly browsing the untaken guys for ceiling: Cam Cauley, Allen Facundo
12:14
I think the same risks that apply to Spencer Miles (who I like a lot) apply to Facundo.
ABS before leg day
12:14
Any additional info on Miguel Caraballo beyond the short blurb in the Rule 5 piece?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
No, film work on the DSL guys always requires more time than is worth it when I'm just working on an individual target. We'll update his report in full when we do the Twins list.
Max
12:15
Thoughts on Kendry Chourio and David Shields on the Royals? Any chance they jump onto a top 100 prospect list in the next year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
Chourio has a live arm and creates real action on both of his secondary pitches. It's like 94-97 with plus curveball and changeup. His delivery is pretty violent and he's on the smaller side, an even six feet or so. I'm more inclined to 45+ a guy with this degree of risk, he threw 51 innings.
12:19
He's really exciting, just wanna see the stamina piece demonstrated before I slide him ahead of the Parker Messick types who have proven it and are right there.
12:23
Shields I'm not on as much, I have a harder time seeing ceiling and think he's more like a low variance backend starter type. I get it, he can pitch, the fastball has punched above its weight, I'm not sure he'll have the secondary pitch quality of a Jose Quintana or anything like that.
Jonathan
12:23
What are the first things you look at when observing/analyzing a prospect for the first time?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
It just depends on how it is I first interact with them. Sometimes the first thing I've looked at is the number of innings they've pitched because that's what I sorted on the minor league leaderboard. Sometimes it's a different sort of data point like their extension, sometimes I'm introduced to a player when the PA announcer says the guy's name as he steps up to take BP at a showcase.
Eli
12:26
Lot of angst about the Yankees not trading Spencer Jones during his hot streak but presume that all the consensus concerns about his hit/K rates around the league haven't abated at all?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
I think teams have properly evaluated and valued him, and that the internet zeitgeist has probably not.
Chooch
12:28
Curet, haven't seen a ton of talk on this little trade with the phillies. Any insight on where he is at right now?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
His delivery looked out of whack to me when he came back. It might take someone who is better at articulating the biomechanics of it to explain why, his arm action and power through release just seemed less comfortable and authoritative to me...
12:32
I really liked this guy, but here's a counter example to my Chourio screed: Curet is someone who, at least during the last ten months or so, the track record of stamina and performance was there but the player still wasn't a lock to contribute quickly...
12:33
Remember there was a multi-year period across which Curet led the entire minor leagues in K's.
Guest
12:34
Did Yoniel Curet really go that much backwards last year that he deserved to be DFA'd?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Some of it is more about the Rays feeling like they don't have the time or roster space to dick around with. This guy could get right, lots of pitchers go through this, but he didn't look like a rosterable guy at the end of the season.
mmddyyyy
12:35
How do you take your caffeine?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Just coffee
12:37
My mom 60-year-old mom handed me a Celsius last week and either assumed I knew what it was (which I did, even though I've never tried one) or didn't feel the need to tell me that it's caffeinated, or doesn't herself know that it is.
I think it was the first one.
RIght?
Draft Man
12:38
How does the top of this draft class compare to last year's?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
I feel like the top tier is two or three players deep. I bet a couple pitchers emerge in the spring and will join them. Probably a little shallower right now than average.
Christina
12:40
With Alonso out of NY, does open the door for Ryan Clifford? Could he be in play for their opening day 1B?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
I think he's in the medium term mix. I think they have so many on-roster options right now (permutations with Vientos at 1B, or maybe a Ketel trade or something at 2B and Semien moves to 1B {just spitballing}) that they'll like set sail on 2026 with Clifford in the minors...
12:43
But if he crushes during Spring Training and is crushing when the calendar turns May while, i dunno, Vientos is slumping or something, that is when he might get an opportunity.
Scott
12:43
I'm curious about how guys like Isaac Lyon get included in trades. Who brings him up in the conversation? Does the acquiring team actually think he's a fringe prospect? Was he on anyone's radar as anything more than roster filler? Is he now? It's hard for me to understand valuations so precise that a team would believe that Ferrer for Ford is almost fair, but need a guy like this to even it out.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
I know there are folks with clubs who have coveted Ferrer. I was not on him to *that* degree, and had him more as a lefty middle inning option.
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