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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:01
Howdy howdy, I'm on the road seeing family for the holidays while still hammering away at writing and Board maintenance, but still wanted to squeeze in one last chat before the site is dark starting in the middle of next week through New Year's Day. So let's boogie.
fried rice
12:01
why is ZIPS so bullish on colt emerson's 3B defense?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Good question, I think it's probably just mapping to 3B the metrics Dan's using from SS/2B based on historical data when a player makes a similar move. But it's Danny's model, I don't know for certain.
AD
12:03
Jordy Vargas came back after a really long injury layoff. Looks like he struck a ton of dudes out, but the walks were crazy. Is this normal injury rust, or had something noticeably changed?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
I thought his delivery looked *better* in a sense, namely that the traits I'm looking for in a delivery (in this case I thought Vargas was getting down he mound better than before, I haven't looked at the extension data to check tho) were more present than before, his arm slot was kind of all over the place late in 2023 and was more consistently 3/4s in 2025...
This plus rust coming off the TJ means I'm not super concerned (the breaking ball still performed like a 70 last year) but obviously the Rockies track record with arms hasn't been great.
Dan S.
12:08
How do you think Coby Mayo is perceived around the league at this point? Former top 20 prospect, got exposed and struggled as he adjusted to MLB pitching and moved off 3B, but finished 2025 strong. Is there still enough upside for him to anchor a package for a good starter?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
It would depend on fit, I don't think he's at the top of the pecking order of Orioles I'm asking for if I'm trading a no. 3 or better, though.
Mayo feels like the second piece in a deal like that
Shawn miller
12:09
any updates on yohanfer Santana?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Can you be more specific? It's the offseason and he was talked about in last week's chat (including a link to video of one of his outings) so, not really.
Matt
12:09
I would be curious to hear your thoughts on Drew Burress, who seems like a unique prospect to say the least. Short and RHH but also maybe the best hitter in the draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
It's rare for outfielders that small to actually hit it big.
I think falling for Madrigal, etc. has pushed me more towards preferring overt physicality.
Dan S.
12:10
Will Enrique Bradfield Jr. hit enough to be a (good) regular? Or is he more of a glove-fist bench/platoon option?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
45, plus defender, 70 runner. Useful 9 hole hitter.
12:11
Look at the CF population from any prolonged period of time. The ones who produce like 50s or better hit for power, unless you're Kiermaier.
tbone26
12:11
which lists are we getting next?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Reds, White Sox, Mariners, probably one of Cleveland and Philly in there too. CIN and CHW next week before we're dark, SEA, CLE, PHI in the New Year
Jonathan
12:12
What is Sung-mun Song's defense like? Is there any defensive versatility considering Machado is still at 3B for the Padres?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
plus glove at 2b/3b
Great athlete, I imagine he'll rove beyond those two spots, but he's very good at both. Gorgeous footwork and actions.
Dan S.
12:12
Trey Gibson stumbled a bit with the new ball in AAA but pitch models have me salivating over his arsenal. What’s the upside/floor there?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
A good team's no. 4, has the stuff to take the ball in a playoff series
JD
12:13
Thoughts on Sung Mun Song signing with the Padres?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
For the amount they signed him for, it's good. I'm skeptical he'll hit very much but at this AAV it'd be okay if he's a glove-first utility guy.
Res
12:13
Did Caleb Bonemer’s showing in A ball increase your confidence in his hit tool at all?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
Yes, James is stuffing him.
12:14
Real barrel feel, excellent vertical plate coverage, we're in.
Jeremy
12:14
How do you evaluate big-bat guys like Chris Hacopian knowing they don't have traditional speed / athleticism to boost the rest of their package?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
Does he have at least one 70 grade something on offense? If he does then you can feel free to ignore some of the other stuff.
Jeremy
12:16
In hitting, how much do teams value present abilities versus things they think are fixable, e.g., does a guy with good chase but bad pull air % rank above a guy who already pulls with authority but has poor discipline?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
I think it depends on how well-integrated player dev and scouting are for that particular team. Can you see the changes that need to be made? Have your scouts been armed with the knowledge that, for instance, lower body strength matters a lot for pitchers and maybe watch your orgs with that in mind searching for guys who don't have that yet?
12:18
Sometimes I think teams, even individual executives, have personal tastes that might lead them to value Emmanuel Valdez (an upper level performer) in a trade but not Estuar Suero (all projection).
Jeremy
12:18
How does 2026's draft class stack up to recent drafts? Anyone stand out to you besides Cholowsky? Are there categories that looks particularly strong or weak this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
Roch in tier 1 alone right now, then Grady Emerson and Justin Lebron. I bet a college pitcher or two joins them by July. Good college hitter draft into the middle of round 1.
Jeremy
12:19
What's your read on Genei Sato? Are we likely to see more foreign college students come stateside before starting pro careers?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
He's okay. Fairly mature build, delivery features a good bit of effort. Throws hard, secondary stuff not great...35+ type
I do think we're gonna get more and more guys doing this, but as the world seems to finally be learning with Rintaro Sasaki, it doesn't mean they're good.
12:26
Fun, nice story, RIntaro seems like a sweet kid, but he was pretty obviously not that good right away, hype created out of thin air by the internet basically
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