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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Howdy ho from a brisk and refreshing Tempe, Arizona, where I'll be able to see baseball in person a week from today.
Thanks for joining me for the first chat of the calendar year. If you're new, we talk about prospects in this space for about an hour on Fridays.
Scotty
12:13
Happy Friday, Eric. How often in your analysis do you use comps to shape your thoughts about players? I was thinking about who is a starter comp for Jaxon Wiggins and I was coming up with a blank.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
If I go looking for a comp it's usually via the shape of a player's data. Like, "Alfonsin Rosario's contact rate is X% and his measured power is Y, what big leaguers have a similar contact rate and measured power, etc. and what did they perform like in the bigs...
It's more about understanding viable MLB baselines than going looking for a comp player to player
12:16
And then sometimes you're just watching a guy and think, "This guy looks like Jon Garland" or whatever
NFP
12:16
What do you feel are the biggest process changes since Gawlowski joined?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
He's the first prospect coworker who has a little kid (a little kid who's speaking two languages btw, unreal) and so sometimes there's jelly all over the scouting reports.
Roman Anthony Enjoyer
12:19
If the Red Sox decide to trade Duran for prospects would the return be larger than what the Marlins got for Cabrera? Would someone like Alfredo Dino lead the return?
Dan S.
12:19
Will Caissie make enough contact to tap into the power and be an above average regular?
DR
12:19
Does the Cabrera return make it seem like the O’s overpaid for Baz?  Miami’s return feels somewhat lighter than what Baltimore gave up
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
General Edward Cabrera trade thoughts:
12:22
I think Caissie can be a meaningfully good piece of an offense pretty soon. Big lefty power like his is uncommon. Might he struggle enough against lefties to require a platoon partner? Yeah, and that's why we have him graded as more of a good platoon corner OF right now. But the Marlins have time to give him runway as they build the roster toward contention and see how he adjusts to lefties. He's a fine centerpiece of a trade like this.
12:23
But the rest of the package is light, like I think it's pretty likely neither of the other guys does anything. And that part felt underwhelming, especially when comparing it to the Baz return.
Now I'm willing to believe that Edward Cabrera's injury history (which is long and troubling) may have had a real impact on what he return was, relative to Baz. But on pure stuff, they're both exciting impact guys.
12:24
As for a potential Duran return, I just think the market values hitters way more than arms, especially right now when there are still lots of signing and trade candidates still out there.
12:25
But I dont think Duno is Boston's type like that.
NFP
12:25
Any notable catchers to track in the 2026 draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
It's actually a pretty light year for catching, maybe a couple college guys find there way into round two (Lackey at GT, I liked Ryder Helfrick in HS, there's a kid at Cincy) and I like Alain Gomez and Andrew Costello as million dollar HS guys but I'm not trying to take them 15th or anything.
Bryan Of The Cross
12:26
Have you watched any LIDOM MVP Bryan de la Cruz? He’s mashing; any adjustments to note?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
He looks like he's hit a different gear in the gym, maybe. Looks stronger to me. LIDOM pitching isn't awesome, though. Grain of salt.
Aussie League
12:27
The Phillies send a contingent of minor leaguers to play in Australia every winter. I also understand some young Japanese players go to get reps. What’s your understanding of the talent level in that league?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
It's a weird mix of older veteran Aussies, a handful of usually very young position player prospects from a few MLB teams (Reds, Phils, Tigers, Rays, have had guys there) and now suddenly some developmental types from Asia. It doesn't squarely compare with a minor league level here, it's part adult men's league, part Old Appy League.
Odenyc
12:29
A few chats ago, you ranked 2025 debut starters, McLean, Burns, Sasaki, Yesavage, Schlitter, Horton I think in that order. Who want asked about, nor ranked was Miz. Where would you put him amongst those arms? Thanks!!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
You can order him, Roki, and Yesavage however you like in that area
Jim
12:30
Can you say when the A's prospect list will be released?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
That's likely one that gets done after spring training starts. I live 15 minutes from the complex and would rather capture early-season improvements in person on that list that write it now.
NFP
12:31
How often do you reevaluate thresholds like average contact/z-con/chase against MLB-level damage on contact? Same with whiff rates and shape/release traits for pitchers
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
Basically every offseason when it's time to make the spreadsheets
Oneear
12:32
Rushing or Basallo?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Basallo
Jeb
12:32
If you are the Pirates, do you give Konnor Griffin a Jackson Chourio like extension just before the season and start him at SS in the MLB Opening Day?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
I would certainly try to, you'd at least want to see how the player feels about the idea of it before you start talking about length and amount, and I'm not sure right before the CBA expires is the exact right time to do it when you're talking about a team like Pittsburgh who kinda needs to nail it.
Jemccla
12:35
Do you think any of Gabriel Gonzalez, Hector Rodriguez or Jared Thomas will have a chance to start in their respective OFs this year? What would their clubs need to see from them to provide them an opportunity for extended abs at the big league level?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
I'd put Gonzalez and Rodriguez ahead of Thomas in terms of '26 debut probability. The honest answer is usually these guys debut because of injury, which I suppose puts Gabby at the top of the list because Minnesota's players are an injury prone group.
Oaktown Blues
12:38
A's have lost a couple formerly highly-regarded guys this off-season due to roster crunch: Waldichuk (DFA) and Susac (rule 5). Do you think they will regret either of these losses? Should they have tried harder to protect them?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
I think it's gonna be okay. Waldy didn't look totally back to peak for after his rehab and I think Susac's ceiling is as a backup.
Burp
12:39
I’m not a scout but Whisenhunt looks like a 2-pitch guy with a bad fastball and bad command.  Can he really be successful as a starter?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Probably not. But a lefty reliever with an elite changeup, whose fastball ticks up a bit when he's airing it out in relief. That's appealing still.
12:41
Like, what if he's lefty Devin Williams? That'd be nice.
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