You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat
brad lipton
12:40
Is there a chart or table that gives some measure of career (or first 5 years) of MLB production based (e.g., WAR) on FV upon initial callup to MLB?  I am thinking about this in relation to how to value a 40 FV player relative to 45 FV or 50 FV.  Does three or four 40 FV players approximate a 50 FV player value (from a statistical standpoint)?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
I'm a little confused by the wording of your first question but I think I see what you're getting at and the answer is yes.
12:43
There have been a lot of tutorials posts and updates to the "FV means we expect this many WAR, or this kind of role on a roster" canon.
The very first google result when searching is this one: The New FanGraphs Scouting Primer | FanGraphs Baseball
12:44
You can look at any given position's leaderboard over 5-6 years and see the talent curve across the WAR distribution: Major League Leaderboards - 2020 to 2025 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball
12:45
Or do your own WAR per 600 PA calc and see it that way.
12:46
To your second question:
12:47
Craig Edwards research was that the players who can be starts and stick around for a while are many times more valuable than the 40-grade role players who come and go before they're deep into arb. You can see the valuations by FV tier on the Farm System ranking page: Farm System Rankings | FanGraphs Baseball
JC
12:47
Hi Eric, first time long time. Enjoyed the most recent international articles and ranking. My question: With these players agreeing to handshake deals earlier and earlier in age, I'm curious who has been the biggest gap in Signing Bonus to Actual Talent on signing day in your opinion?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
Throughout the process I'd have told you it was Jeancer Custodio, but he signed for much less than the info I had indicated he would. The real right answer is probably that one of the 3+ million dollar guys isn't going to hit at all.  and we'll find out who that is over the next twelve months. My answer sitting here now is that the trajectory of Gregory Pio's scouting reports and Yeison Horton's lack of projection are kinda scary?
12:51
On the flip side I love Randy Santana
Jonathan
12:52
Do you think the biggest hurdle keeping people from accurately projecting 14-year-old DR kids' frames at maturity is the relative lack of information about diet, prior weight training, family athleticism, etc.?  If you wanted to create a model to predict how bodies fill out, what data would you include besides age, height, weight, shoulder width, leg length, whatever else scouts typically use to determine projectability?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:53
I think it's literally everything about them at that young of an age
12:54
And who would want to be tracking that kind of stuff that early? It's macabre to me. There are teams who aren't down for that sh*t and just don't participate in that segment of the talent pool.
12:55
The thing that is positive about the current international system, in my opinion, is that the players have agency to choose their team in a way the draft doesn't allow. But if you're deciding at 13, can we even call that a choice? Could 13 year old me be anything other than coerced?
12:56
Okay, I'm gonna do this radio hit on MLB Network SiriusXM now
12:57
and then go watch bullpens.
Oh! Brendan is gonna start his own chat in the near future. So you'll have double the prospect chat.
See y'all next Friday, same Bat time same bat channel
Connecting…