You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
powered byJotCast
View Full Chat Next Page
Eric A Longenhagen
12:01
Hey everyone, good to be with you again on a crisp Friday morning in the desert.
12:02
Please go check out the Phils scouting reports: Philadelphia Phillies Top 34 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball
And for the newbs, see that there's all sorts of other cool stuff on The Board The Board | FanGraphs Baseball
Matt
12:03
Since the Angels list just went up from Brendan, curious if you have any “system overview thoughts” about the Angels system?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
I think it's a little more fun than it is good. I really like the toolsy international guys, I like Alvarez, Quintero, Flores (all potential top 100 guys twelve months from now), they find hard throwers that don't always develop in other ways but sometimes they do (Jose Soriano turned out to be good)...
12:07
TGA is a Pick to Click for both Brendan and I. It's not a bad system, my instincts are that it's in the middle third of systems, but probably toward the bottom of that third.
12:08
I really think their draft strategy is too narrow. There's definitely something to be said for polished players getting to the bigs quickly, and it was one thing to do that during the Trout and Ohtani window, but now they're too often punting on upside with their early picks. They've balanced somewhat with high schoolers later in the draft, but dudes like Will Smith and Bo Bichette go after the 1st round all the time, give yourselves the opportunity to end up with them.
Rodger
12:09
Is Ryan Ward a classic quad A guy or should he be traded to a team that can give him an opportunity?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
I think he's an above replacement player so maybe not classic Quad A guy who can't do anything in the bigs. I do think it'll take him trickling down to a rebuilding team for him to get a lengthy shot, and that he could have a 3 year window of good numbers if that happens
Rodney - Buckeye AZ
12:12
2027 Dynasty rank for each player if things go good:  Stewart, Benge, Emerson, Snelling and Tong
Eric A Longenhagen
12:13
Emerson (supplants Crawford and is the everyday SS in a potent lineup), Benge (stays in CF and it's okay, swing actually works, top of the order guy in a potent lineup), Stewie (stays at 3B enough to qualify, rakes), Tong (strikes improve, two monster pitches), Snelling (rock solid no. 4)
Rodger
12:13
Who is a slightly less heralded arm that could have Misiorowski type ascension with a midseason call up? Klassen? Hopkins? Wiggins?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
It might just be Bishop Letson if you're looking for Miz-like traits
12:16
Maybe Brooks Auger? like if I'm mining really deep for guys who could be Miz for the reasons Miz is Miz, Extension is where you start looking
Vic
12:16
Who makes a bigger impact this year Wetherholt or McGonigle?   I appreciate these chats!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
I'll say KMac because we're talking potential impact on a postseason race
Matt D
12:17
Thanks for doing these chats! Curious what you think about Kristian Campbell as sort of post-hype/recent grad. I think it is far too early to give up on the kid personally. Did anything change your outlook from last year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
Swing has changed, set-up looked different in Puerto Ricko. Swinging it hard but late a lot of the time. I'm worried about him.
RH
12:18
Do you know if there is a constituency in the rrom for negotiations fighting to keep 4 levels of affiliated Milb? I have lost hope for A- coming back
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
It has tended to be the behavior of the union to slowly agree to things that cause the rights and privileges of the amateur and minor league players to erode. Now that minor leaguers are unionized, they can advocate for themselves more than before, but even if it doesn't happen in the next CBA I have to imagine that over time we'll have fewer affiliates, dev will be outsourced to college baseball as much as possible, etc.
JP
12:21
Aidan Miller ETA? And how soon will Philly regret the Trea Turner contract that goes through 2033 when he will be 40?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
Probably end of '26, late enough that he retains rookie eligibility in '27. Trea led the league in hits this year right? There's always been part of me that wants to see him in CF, and maybe at a certain point Philly's best alignment will be Miller at SS (he's not great there, I don't love Turner there either despite what the numbers say but he's better than Miller) and Trea in CF. Most long term deals feel bad at the end. They've come close to winning it all with this guy so it's hard to say it was a bad decision.
Like a lot of teams at some point they'll need to rebuild. Pretty natural.
Jonathan
12:23
If you were running a team's scouting department and were inexplicably given 2-3x as big a budget as the next-largest scouting budget in baseball, how would you try to best create competitive imbalances in favor of your team?  Hire more experienced scouts?  Hire more scouts, period, to get greater coverage?  Invest in technology for your scouts?  Better synergy with PD, S&C, etc.?  Other stuff?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
Money alone can't accomplish *all* of that stuff. And remember it's just the scouting department with crazy money in your scenario so the PD, R&D, etc. stuff I can't really touch. We would definitely have scout super team and the department would be big. I'd maybe try to hire every single public-facing prospect person to create a huge vacuum just to see what'd happen in that space. There aren't many of us.
Greg
12:27
What percentage of the way to getting the most accurate possible individual defensive stats are we?

With modern technology we are able to measure positioning, range, ball flight trajectory and exit velo, throw speed/accuracy, transfer times, pitch framing, etc.

It seems like at this point we have more or less all of the important inputs we will ever have, no? I understand this may differ by infield, outfield, catcher, pitcher
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
It depends how you want to look at it. There are nuances in the quality and cleanliness of players actions that signal more about their ability than just whether the ball was seen to first base in time. But also, all that kinda matters is whether it got there in time. So Alcides Escobar can pick a tough hop with the sexiest glovework you've ever seen, and Dan Uggla can get down on a knee, the ball hits his body, he gets up and still has time to make the play, and they're both outs. And there are definitely some people who only care about it in a binary sense like that.
12:30
So shorter answer is that yes, more of defense is quantifiable than in the past, there are still things the etch isn't assessing that are meaningful to me when I'm parsing players, but those things might only be meaningful on the rare occasion when they're the difference between an out or not and some people thin kthat's rare enough not to care so much.
Lord Thunder
12:30
The ZIPS projection for Thayron Liranzo was beyond brutal. What was behind his horrible year at Double-A and what are the chances of a significant rebound?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
My gut is to stay on him because catchers sometimes just have seasons like this, but Brendan and I have Tigers on our docket here shortly and we'll have a more conclusive answer shortly.
BI
12:31
Last chat you mentioned they might do a 10 round draft with no hs players eligible + take away one of the A levels so I got a couple questions within that. First do you see teams targeting more HS players over the next 2 drafts since that won’t be allowed. Secondly, if the draft is being changed, do you see the IFA system getting tweaked at all? Lastly how would taking out an A level effect development, you saw taking away short season ball really affect some HS and Latin players
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
I didn't say anything about rounds
12:32
"First do you see teams targeting more HS players over the next 2 drafts since that won’t be allowed?"
12:33
No, that doesn't make sense to me. If anything, "taking a bunch of HS kids and then they develop for a year or two and now you can only take college kids" creates a clog of same-aged players. If there's going to be a response to no HS players, it'll be one year of HS players reclassifying to sneak into the last draft with HS players.
12:34
"Secondly, if the draft is being changed, do you see the IFA system getting tweaked at all?" It's been talked about before and I imagine the league will try. Teams are operating as if it won't change because that's the way to best stay prepared. If it changes then everyone starts from scratch, unless there's a wink wink and everyone just drafts the players they already agreed to deals with, which would be hilarious.
12:35
"Lastly how would taking out an A level effect development, you saw taking away short season ball really affect some HS and Latin players"
I think the quality of baseball at Low-A was impacted severely by removal of the short season leagues, and I'd have to think High and Double A would be impacted if Low-A is excised.
drplantwrench
12:35
tyler bremner is not the pick i would have made, but i think the selection might be overhated.  hes a year removed from being the best pitcher in college, did fine last year despite really extenuating circumstances.  sure there were higher upside but higher risk choices, but the angels cant afford that luxury cuz they need help ASAP (because arte wont spend).  am i validating a bad choice or did the angels maybe not do something wrong for once?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
IDK how much it's "hated", I was pretty heavy on Bremner  for well over a year and think it was totally justified to take him where he went. It came out of left field not in a talent sense, but in that we basically didn't have mock draft dope that it was possible. We all would have done better to put Bremner with LAA based on their tendencies rather than the intel we all got, which turned out to be B.S.
Connecting…