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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
Didn't see Abreu (I'm still turning over rocks at instructional league until Wednesday) but Sheffield was freaking electric.
Darius
12:29
What is Mitch Keller's upside?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
#2
Jeb
12:30
Who are some Pirate prospects who could really make a leap within the next year or so?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
I like Taylor Hearn, Cole Tucker, Luis Escobar and still have an eye on Max Kranick
Mason
12:32
How interesting in Eric Filia? Pretty good 2017, strong start to AZL. Is this someone that can rise quickly in 2018?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Yup, he's interesting. I saw him at UCLA and liked him, thought he could really hit (he squared up Alec Hansen multiple times and was the only Bruin who could) but obviously it's a tough defensive profile. He's 25, but the fact that we're talking about a 20th(I think?) rounder having a chance means Seattle did a good thing here by taking a shot on him.
Steve
12:34
Have you seen any Royals players in Surprise or the AZL? Thinking like Vallot, Matias, Pratto, & Cancel.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
They're my last instructs club. Ask me next week.
weird question guy
12:35
When you say a player could be a star, versus an above average regular, versus regular, what percentage of players are "Stars" or "above average regulars"? Is your model a fat middle of below/average/above with few stars and few scrubs?  Ditto for pitchers. Are there 30 number one pitchers and 60 2/3 starters?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
You will find that helpful. Thanks for being the guy who periodically asks that question because it's a good/important one.
JR
12:36
What can you tell us about LAD prospect Donovan Casey?  He had a great debut.  Why was he picked so late?  Do you know what his signing bonus was?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Not sure off the top of my head what his bonus was. Saw him this spring in RF and on the mound. Good body, solid average athlete, plus arm in RF. I'd have to double check my notes to see how hard he threw on the mound but I wanna say he was 90-93? Hold on....
12:38
Okay, sorry. I've since needed to purchase a new notebook. Okay, Donovan Casey (who was a late round pick out of Boston College, btw)
12:39
I have 'above average bat speed, glimpses of barrel control, needs mechanical overhaul, good frame, plus arm'
12:40
So yeah I think he's interesting. The Dodgers have had recent success turning toolsy, late-blooming OFs into prospects.
Waltharius
12:40
Will Fangraph update the farm system report this winter?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Yeah, once I'm done with my HBT annual piece (today or tomorrow) I'll get working on those.
Anthony
12:40
How do scouts go about evaluating pitchability and mound presence? What is it that you look for in a young pitcher to evaluate "feel for pitching?"
Eric A Longenhagen
12:44
The recipe for 'feel' is part command, part sequencing, making pitches move in a way that is effective. Especially on the backfields, it's easy to see and hear when a pitcher is struggling to deal with adversity, or see that he's overthrowing to try to get out of a jam.
12:45
I know some of those terms seems antiquated or as if they're just projections of the scout and I also think sometimes we lean too heavily on tropes like that which, true as they might be, are vague and not at all informative. But I do think stuff like that is real and visible.
Alex
12:46
Is Fangraphs going to be doing chats all offseason (except for scheduled writer vacations)? If so that's awesome, and I want to say I appreciate your work.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
I know I'll be here, at least.
Kingsley
12:46
What do you think is the ceiling for Nate Pearson what to acheive that, what do he need to do?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:47
I have him projected as a reliever and think he could be a dominant one. The things he'd have to do to start are the things one would probably assume. Command, third pitch.
James
12:47
Who is the best Padres prospect that nobody talks about?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
Jordy Barley is as tooled up as any of their young Latin American position players
Luzinski’s Sweaty Gooch
12:48
A ton of the super young Latin kids being quickly pushed quickly through the lower levels (Tatis, Florial, etc) have glaring strikeout totals. At what point is being pushed quickly a detriment to long term development?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
If something happens to the offensive environment that suddenly places more emphasis on contact, I could see guys who were forgiven, as prospects, for not making contact getting screwed. But for now I just think what those two have done at their age is pretty impressive.
Fred
12:49
As a general matter, are you optimistic about guys like Matt Thaiss (good contact skill, reasonably strong) developing game power if the other parts of their game are coming along?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
That's a good question and like all good questions the answer is, "It depends." You have to ask yourself that question about all hit-first prospects. If a player is physically projectable and might grow into more power, that's something I'm into. Or if you think he's going to hit enough that a lack of power doesn't matter (like Olerud) then that's another possible path for the player.
12:52
And then, of course, right now a player might just arrive in the big leagues and suddenly have power because of the baseball itself.
Which is really screwing with my power-grading spider senses.
JR
12:52
Is Heath Fillmyer still a 45 prospect for you?  Any changes in his outlook after his 2017 season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
Yeah, I'm still on him as a #4/5.
Kristen
12:53
Rangers have any TORP-ceiling SP prospects at all?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
Perhaps not anyone with that sort of ceiling, though I do think Ragans is really good and there's low-level pitching depth in guys like Jean Casanova, Tyler Phillips, etc., who could all turn into mid to back of the rotation guys.
Kendall
12:55
Is my swing & miss issue that big of a concern? How much would it preven me from making to the show?
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