Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Morning, readers, welcome back. Let's hop to.
Stashin
12:04
Who comes up first - De Vries or Emerson?  And who has a bigger impact this year and next?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
That's a good one. Obviously, the Emerson extension makes him feel more proximate at the start of the discussion. JP Crawford has a .390 xwOBA right now and Cole Young has found his footing. So those two are holding serve at the moment. Emerson has been fine, he's not kicking the door down...
12:08
De Vries has now been at Double-A for a little over 200 plate appearances. He could justifiably be promoted soon. If he sustains this level of performance at Triple-A for another four-to-six weeks while Hernaiz continues to look like he has, there's a more obvious vacuum there.
12:09
I think De Vries will hit for power immediately. Emerson's swing is less dangerous in ways and places that pitchers can access.
A dummy
12:11
As a prospect dummy, should I get excited over Pedro Ramirez or is it just a case of the cubs writers pumping up their guys?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
We were set to publish Cubs today, but Rowley woke up with a fever yesterday. James and I like Pedro Ramirez quite a bit. I'll spare you posting his entire scouting report but note a few key things and our conclusions:
12:13
He's been a plus or better contact hitter his entire career. He's a smaller guy but his move in the box is pretty big and athletic, he gets a lot out of it and he's maintained plus contact anyway.
12:14
He does have 45/50 grade raw and round down batted ball traits. He's a lower launch guy. And though he's a versatile defender, he's not an especially good one...
12:16
We view him as a lesser version of Brendan Donovan. He's not *quite* that good a contact hitter, but we believe he can hit and that he'll play a bunch of non-shortstop positions, enough to basically be in the lineup every day. His expected offensive output is similar to what Bryson Stott has been, Donovan Solano, guys like that who tend to hover right around the middle of the second base peer group. Pedro is a 50.
I'll update The Board so you can see where we're putting him on the 100 (and read his full report) when we're done here.
TINSTAAPPFML
12:17
Hey Eric, Kade Anderson has shown he has the goods in AA and has people talking about him getting a cup of coffee this year. Ryan Sloan who was similarly touted hasn't. Have you seen anything regarding him this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Anderson is definitely more polished. It's four pitches with execution right now. He's so unpredictable, he's throwing any pitch in any count as soon as the game starts. Does he really have an elite miss fastball? It's got a 30% miss rate so far, that's nuts. I buy it has round up elements and plays above its velo, but is it really a 7 or 8? I think we're still learning that.
12:22
Soan is freakier. He's enormous, he has a huge arm, he might end up with *two* 70s (his changeup could be a monster), we liked his upside more than Anderson's. But if ANderson is going to have 70 command...
Stevie
12:24
Thoughts on Elian Pena skipping the complex and performing at this level?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
He's a physically mature player and the quality of play at low A is not very good. I don't think it's crazy that he's performing. I can tell you that, just watching him swing a baseball bat, I wouldn't be comfortable stuffing this guy at the moment. Pretty stiff lower body, at some point will need an adjustment if he's going to hit breaking stuff.
12:27
Like seriously, there are a ton of Pena questions in chat and I'd be pumping the breaks right now if there's an online hype brain rolling on the socials right now.
Phil
12:28
What do you think about Tolle as a starter? Obviously the Sox have little choice right now, but Crawford, Oviedo, and eventually Houck will be back, and Tolle looks like he could be a dominant reliever. Do you see development toward a more Earlylike starting mix?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
I think it'd be foolish to nerf Tolle's role, or potentially stunt his development, in deference to that group. At some point the way to keep Oviedo healthy might be for him to be in the bullpen (though I was enthusiastic about him when they got him for the reasons you probably are), Houck had an 8 ERA last year.
Doug
12:32
Where do you rank Ethan Salas in the top 100 if he continues his current level of play all year.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
His swing limits his ability to cover elevated fastballs. He's going to K a lot. If we really think, as the year progresses, this is a 70 defender with plus power projection, then he could end up in the 55 FV tier, essentially in the Michael Harris, PCA area because of what he can do on defense, streaky hitting be damned.
Guest
12:35
You were pretty high on Adrian Del Castillo.  Are we at a point where we can say "meh"?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
I'm still on him more than that.
Ben
12:36
Hey Eric, no question, just hope you have a nice Friday big dawg!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Hey thanks, you too.
Will
12:38
Semi-regularly check in on if Jamie Arnold is pounding the zone
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
Struggled last outing but was doing better than last year through his first four starts. 65% fastball strikes through first four starts.
Jake
12:40
What do you make of the early promotion to AAA for Tommy White? Seems odd for a RH corner player with a sub .400 SLG to get promoted.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Was it just dominoes from Muncy's injury?
Jason N
12:40
Should Bradgley be stretched out as a starter with his pitch mix?  How would that move his FV?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
Maybe, but I think they've had other potentially more impactful candidates there (Morejon, Miller) who they don't seem to have entertained that with. Bradgley's delivery screams "reliever only" to me
Dan Norman Lear
12:43
Curious your take on a couple guys who are between prospect and established: Cade Povich and Alejandro Osuna.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
Osuna is a personal fave. High motor guy, great energy, team mascot fifth OF type a la Guillermo Heredia.
12:48
Povich is maybe different. More pure vert angles to his stuff. Still light on velo but it's playing better. I'd take Povich if you're asking for an either/or
Dan Norman Lear
12:49
Kendry Chourio is having a strong start. A friend compared him to Pedro Martinez. I cited Tink Hence and Sixto Sanchez. Which one of us is right, or is there a more reasonable third lane to view him in?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:51
I mean... I can't call the guy making the Pedro comp more correct, can I? I'm rolling my eyes at you both a little bit. I have the reasons I do for wanting to give Chourio less weight than Brendan does, and he has the reasons he does for wanting to give him more. Both are valid. Now let's just see how it plays out.
2027 Mets
12:52
I'm struggling to sort out how the rotation will pan out: Nolan McLean is an extremely obvious #1, but with Senga/Manaea completely unviable (and Peterson/Holmes/Peralta gone via FA) the rest of the spots seem rather unclear. What should I watch for to assess the viability of Christian Scott, Jack Wenninger, Zach Thornton, and/or Jonah Tong as at least league average major league starters?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:53
I woudn't be completely done with Senga, and if they're indeed cooked then the trade deadline is going to yield a bunch of arms who are ready next year. I like the group you mention but you want at elast a couple of those guys to break in as SP6-8, you need 8 to 10 guys to get through a season and you're optionable young guys need to pay that roe.
Kevin
12:53
The scouting scale used to be increments of 10 between 20 and 80. Then it became increments of five. Then a plus designation was added. What used to be a 40 or 50 grade can now be 45+.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:56
That's kinda correct. The plus is only a thing I apply to overall grades, not tools, usually as an indication of variance.
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