Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Good morning from Tempe, where the temps are going to hit 100 and (it looks like) stay there for the foreseeable future. Brendan and I are working on the Orioles system writeup, I'm working on draft update. Enjoying another day in in the desert. Thanks for being here.  
GB
12:04
Lonbard get a grade bump?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Not just yet, it's gonna be fascinating and instructive to see him and Volpe side by side for the next little bit.
Erick
12:05
not sure what you can do about this, but christian scott's stuff+ numbers from last night aren't showing on his page / game log despite last night's showing for other players. just thought i'd pass it along
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
What I'm looking at has them visible:
Mr. Burrito
12:06
Sirota is old (23?) for his league (high A), and it feels obvious that he should jump. But he’s kinda stuck, as the Dodgers have a bunch of prospects at his position above him. Is this the actual (and maybe only) problem with spending free agent money in the way they have?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
If the problem is "we have too much talent" it's not really a problem. He's played 60 games at High A now, I agree we're getting to the point where he should be promoted to stress test his hit tool (this guy still has a fairly sizeable hole in his swing up and away) against pitchers who can execute that location better, but then maybe a reason to hold him down is so that hole isn't exposed and he retains trade value.
Good prospect tho
Kate
12:12
Brandon Compton is doing pretty well at A+, but what is the sustainability of this kind of approach?  He's like 70% three true outcomes right now.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
Usually when you're striking out this much at this level it's a bad sign. 34% swing rate (per Synergy, they're usually behind by about a week, this is as of end of April), 57% contact rate (per his player page on our site, so cool we have that now) these are scary numbers indicating an intentionally passive guy who can really make contact
RVA_Empire
12:14
How do 1st round draft college players end up going to college in the first place? Are most developed into 1st rounders while in the college ranks or are they mostly already identified as top talents but for whatever reason (money, education, etc.) prefer the college route?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
It's a mix. Sometimes the family is doing well financially and the number required to coax the player away from school is super high. Sometimes the player feels confident they can go to school and go 10th instead of 40th just because of the confidence teams gain in the player based on college performance (Matt McLain types), sometimes they develop a lot and have the same path (Chase Burns) sometimes they develop out of nowhere (Dollander). It's a mix. There is only so much pool space in any given year, if you have a nutty high school class they can't all sign
Oaktown Blues
12:17
Is Henry Bolte putting it all together offensively? 73.6% contact rate, 23.5% K rate, pulled (!) a 479 ft HR the other day
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
I think at this point y'all know what I think about Bolte.
Kate
12:18
Guessing you might say I just need to wait for the Red Sox list, but curious if Enddy Azocar is looking like a possible breakout this year?  He torched the complex last year and is looking pretty good again in his second look at A ball so far.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
(nods aggressively)
12:20
Just running into him as I did work on Nationals and now Orioles, he looks awesome. Starlyn Nunez's tools continue to beckon me, as well.
Rayball10
12:20
What's the ceiling on Joshua Baez? And a realistic timeline to reach it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
I don't think he's going to hit.
Kate
12:20
Any word on why we haven't seen Diego Tornes in any complex games yet?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Hmmm, idk, I'll ask someone there but I don't think I'm getting an answer. I saw him three times while I was in Florida, looked OK, not obviously awesome. Prototypical power hitter build, average bat speed, below avg barrel feel
Joe
12:22
Who typically handles scouting of MLB teams prospects internally? Does each team have a designated scout to do their evaluations of their own prospects or do they have multiple individuals from different departments give evaluations? Thank you
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
A greater percentage of internal scouting will be done by upper echelon executives. For instance, the Dbacks pro scouting director, or assist GM, or player dev exec will spend time at each of their affiliates seeing their own players more than they will go scout Delmarva or whatever...
12:26
Whether teams make it a point for the rank and file scouts to see their own guys varies team to team. If I scout for the Reds and part of my coverage is the Marlins system, I may see the Jupiter roster when they play Daytona so that I can get a look at our own guys.
Elijah
12:27
Results have been good for JT Quinn. But, some movement numbers published by BA showed a fairly untenable fastball shape (14/5), and that's before accounting for the low-minors ball. Can you corroborate those numbers at all? And either way, does that write him off as a viable prospect in your mind?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
I think he'll need his peak velo to make it an effective pitch, which means he's probably a reliever. I still like him: two plus breaking balls, changeup isn't bad, touched 99 the other day. Good multi inning relief prospect
Oaktown Blues
12:28
Perhaps a longshot, but any chance you were in attendance for Shotaro Morii's pitching debut yesterday?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
No I watched Boston Bateman's start with the live trackman open and yelled at the refs in the Flyers game through my TV
Casey Judson
12:29
Morning Sunshine. For an intellectually bankruptee, reciriculate is a pretty cool word, eh?   Have you heard any intel on the situation with Milwaukee's Luis Pena? Still hasn't played, little news.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
I texted someone, will let you know if i hear back
DJ Tofu
12:31
How much of Jonah Cox and Scott Bandura's improvement this season is real vs SSS?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
Cox I like as a pinch running and defensive specialist, Bandura I think could be more. Big framed dude, great long term physical projection, runs well, has moved kinda quickly for a small school guy.
Joe
12:33
Why have teams like the Braves reduced their scouting staffs, particularly their National and Regional Crosscheckers? Is there enough data to say if it has had a negative effect or if the effect has been negligible? Thank you
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
The Braves are a "small room" org, the decision makers there like to be the ones who do all the things. I can really sympathize with that as a guy who gets to participate in a facsimile of that kind of set up here at the site, and I also don't love it from a scouting job environment/cultural standpoint. Is there data showing the effects? I don't think so, it might be consequential when we're talking about unearthing and correctly projecting interesting mid to late rounders if you think throwing scouts at that conundrum is the right answer. Ultimately I think your draft pick quality is less about process and more about whether the folks turning in the card know Jahlil Okafor is bad or not.
Joe
12:37
Is MLB not releasing the international bonus pools for next year at the same time as this years draft pools like they had done in years past hint at something ominous with the upcoming CBA expiring? Thank you
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
^^ This is as good a chat question as there can be. I don't have an answer for you but I admire your attention to detail
JD
12:39
Do you see Snelling or Thomas White having a bigger impact with Miami ROS?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Snelling because of the roster situation there. Unless the Marlins stay scrappy deep into the season, there's basically no reason White should debut this year.
mike
12:40
is Caleb Bonemer's start to the year encouraging or discouraging? on the surface he's mashing, and being near the top of MiLB in dingers is cool for a guy who previously was regarded as merely plus in terms of power, but I can't help but worry about his contact rate falling to the danger zone of ~67%. Even with the power he's showing, that seems unsustainable
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