Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Friday chat fam, what's up? Hello from the kitchen island in Tempe as monsoon season looks like it has arrived early and we're in line for some rain today.
12:33
I wrote up the Twins with James this week. Two more orgs to go before we're done with all 30. I'm starting on Rays this weekend, Brendan is doing Marlins. Pretty exciting stuff! Let's see what you've got for me today...
WarrenJ
12:33
Happy to see Merphy Hernandez in your Twins writeup, even as an honorable mention.  Yohandy Morales isn't a favorite of the prospect community, but he's hitting 339/415/596 at Rochester.  Don't the Nationals have to give him a try soon?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Merphy can play some defense, man. I share in the Yohandy skepticism but think he's in line for trial after Garcia is traded.
muenstertruck
12:34
No real question, but I'm excited that Daniel Espino finally got the call. I can't imagine his stuff is quite as electric as it was before the injuries, but he's still bumping 100 in the minors and the story behind it is amazing.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
He's going to be a higher leverage reliever, I think. Sitting 96-100 with plus vert, slider generating plus miss. Ryan Helsley look to the mechanics. Hunter Harvey type trajectory for Espino.
apeloton
12:36
In honor of the impending silly season - which (if any?) blue chip/top 20ish prospects do you think are most likely to get moved  by the trade deadline?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
I'll guess George Lombard
scottsjunk1981
12:38
Hi Eric - did you see the moonshot from Eli Willits last night? I haven't been able to find the EV or distance but it looked like it cleared the fence by 50 feet. Relatedly, are you still projecting him for below average power at maturity?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
Last night's homer left the bat at 104 mph.
His homer from the day before was 105, his hardest hit airborne ball of the season.
12:40
That's certainly not a reason to change his projection at this time.
boobookeys
12:40
ty for all you do Eric. Bryce Rainer K numbers in A+ are ridiculously high. he's gone through a bunch of swing iterations, timing mechanism changes, etc, with his current swing looking a lot simpler, closer to his pre-injury swing. can you confirm? does he move down in your rankings?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:42
I was on he skeptical side of our group when we did hondo stuff, and even though some of my concerns are coming to bear, I think I wanna see how things play out a bit before drastically re-evaluating him.
Wombaty
12:44
Thanks for chatting! You ranked CLE prospects back in Jan. In your view, has Juneiker Caceres done enough to improve his 40+ FV at this point? If so, how do you see his tools, FV, and/or prospect rank at this point? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
Maybe up to a 45? He and Hendry Mendez are pretty similar. With Caceres I wonder how much power there's going to be against big league fastballs. Great contact hitter, really like him as a prospect, not sure there's the kind of impact I want from a corner OF there (to stuff him in the 50 FV while he's in A ball)
nicklocarno
12:48
I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on 2026 Curtis Mead... what changed? is this sustainable? if you were GM, are there a few other scrap heap ex-prospects you'd be interested in buying on?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
His body looks as cut and lean as I have ever seen it, totally rededicated himself to his conditioning and it's paying off. I'm buying.
12:51
He's also swinging less fwiw, he was a chaser and now is arguably passive. Zone swing under 60%, big league avg is....
64%
That's the ex Boston guys influence no doubt
Tim L.
12:51
Thanks for excellent content - much appreciated by all of us, I’m sure.  Scouting reports had Zach Root’s fastball as pretty pedestrian coming out of college.  But seeing his K rates I’m wondering if he’s seen a sustained velocity bump this year?  Or is he just beating up on A ball hitters with deception?  I had heard his velocity was up in short stints in spring, but wasn’t sure if those gains stuck around.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
lemme pullup last year's college trackman data to see the specs on the heater and compare to now to see if there's been a change...
12:56
He is throwing a couple ticks harder, 93-97 t98, more tail than rise (no different than college), his breaking balls have added some rpms but nothing crazy crazy, though they're missing bats at an elite rate. The most obvious change I'm seeing at first blush (just looking at the data not video) is his changeup usage is way down in deference to the breakers.
clubberlang
12:56
Angeibel Gomez hasn’t struck out in first 30PA of DSL.  Also shown power and patience.  But it’s DSL. So… should I be excited as his dynasty owner?  Any info on his EVs?  Thanks Eric!
Eric A Longenhagen
1:00
His data is rad: 90% contact, 45% hard hit. pretty absurd combo for the DSL. ANd what's maybe crazier is he's doing it with a super conservative swing, it's practically strideless. There's more room for power not only as he fills out, but once he starts using his body more.
rossredcay
1:00
Not a prospect anymore, but is there a chance we're seeing the Endy Rodrguez breakout?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:03
Honestly, yeah. I think it's possible. While I work on these in-season lists I put the big league team on basically every day and he was first getting run as I worked on Pirates. I thought he looked good. Almost killed a pitcher with an errant throwdown the one day, but otherwise pretty good. I dont think he's gonna be a 55 or anything. Could he be a 45 or 50? Yeah
Wombaty
1:03
Does Josiah Hartshorn's early performance at A+, and particularly his recent power outburst, change your evaluation at all, or still too small a sample? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
1:08
I don't think it's enough to change it, we def like him and you should, too. Above avg contact, avg power, maybe 70 plate discipline. Our eval is strong, I just think from a value philosophy standpoint I want the A ball hitters we're elevating into the top 100 to be projectable up the middle guys...
1:11
If we put on the hartshorn tape and he's great in CF, now we're talking. But if a player is more of a data-driven prospect than a scouty one, that's fine, but then i think that's the sort of prospect who it's mroe important to have a robust full season data sample from before we say, "ok it's def 70 plate discipline"
rossredcay
1:11
I'm always leery of DSL repeaters.  Is Christian Arguelles anywhere near as good as the stat line looks?  Or is he just beating up on guys a year younger than him?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:12
He's a nice prospect (can play CF, feel to hit) but he's not a true talent .600 slugger. More a long term play than a freaky top 30 overall guy
JAMN
1:12
Perich and Osorio were TEX prospects of note in the team preseason ranking - how has their production so far notably changed your eval?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:16
Perich I really like and almost have to recuse myself from evaluating because he's from my neck of the woods in PA. He's going to be a part time big legue corner bat, he's Rays-y...
1:19
Osorio does not have *this* much power. He's a smaller guy, and granted: he uses the ground and rotates well, he's swinging harder than last year and he's def a good little contact hitter, but he still more on the fringe for me. Perich I think is proximate and is going to have utility
ED44
1:20
Always appreciate these chats--among my favorite things on the site. Minor league draft going and it's time to shoot for the moon. The lotto tickets on my list are: Jirvin Morillo (Cin), Wilder Dalis (Col), and Alexander Frias (Mil). All I really care about is upside, however far off that may be. Where would your dart land? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
1:23
Man, that's tough...
1:24
I think I'm eliminating Dalis if upside is the only thing you care about
Morillo and Frias are the freakier guys of the three.
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