Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
This chat is available to members only. Please log in to participate.
Beer:30
12:27
Is there a place on the site to compare prospects by grades? Thinking like the leaderboards but with just grades to sort and peruse. Also, anywhere to look at historical comparisons when looking at prospects? Seems the only way to find similar profiles is to sort through player by player on their pages.
Eric A Longenhagen
Renato
12:29
Do you think Josue De Paula will develop any defensive value?  And when do you see him hitting the majors?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:30
I don't think so, he's playable but not good out there. I think you're looking at 40-man roster next year, 2028 when he starts to get regular playing time.
Renato
12:31
Ethan Holliday was hitting quite well before getting hurt.  What does his future look like?  MLB.com has him 15th but he is falling down other lists due to injury.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
He's terrifying, swing is so long. But he also has enormous lefty power for his age and he was doing much better from a bat to ball standpoint this year than last. He's risky af, has enough ceiling to be on the hondo tho.
RAH
12:32
Anthony Nunez fastball seemed to be backing up as the season went along. The slider and change still looked good, but even those had their share of mistakes where they were left in the middle of the zone and hit hard. Do you still see impact reliever upside with Nunez?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
I do but I have been bummed by the way things have trended.
Beer:30
12:32
Andrew Fischer led off his AA debut with a bang and sports legitimate power but I can't get past the 35% strikeout rate and 60% contact rate. Is there hope, or precedent, these can turn around or is he destined to peak in the minors? Not asking for a batting champ but don't need another Joey Gallo.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
To be clear: Gallo was awesome. He had enough power to be great despite whiffing that much. Fischer has big juice but not *that* much, not Gallo territory. Even we, who were more apprehensive about where we ranked Fischer before the season, are surprised how much whiffing there has been.
Shirtless George Brett
12:34
Any thoughts on the MLB plan to make high schoolers ineligible for the draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Soo many. I thought JJ's article was thorough beyond him just reporting the deets of the proposal. I think it's a naked attempt to prevent there from being Machado/Harper/Soto type contracts and they're gonna use the fact that our culture cares about college sports as a magician's assistant. Can you imagine not having phenom Trout or Griffey? Or Adrian Beltre's career being altered? I feel like those things are too important to the relevance of our game to scrub away.
tylerjpetrie
12:37
Any concern on Elian Pena’s start this year? Or just a young player adjusting to a harder league?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:37
Without peeking at his stats, I'd tell you I'm concerned about how stiff his lower half is and what it means for him versus breaking balls.
Neil Baumgarten
12:38
Hey Eric - From a 1 to a 10, how would you rank Rob Manford's hatred of baseball?  I know that opening proposals don't mean much, but the idea of having to be 20 to be drafted and less rounds would really hurt player development, really screw players, but save the owners millions.  The 1st 2 drafts under this proposal would be pretty barren as well, I assume.  They already killed short season leagues, what's the endgame here?  Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:41
I think there are owners who view their player dev operations as expense, and others who view it as investment. The ones who view it as expense (Dick Monfort, for instance) have an outsized voice among the owners. They would like to outsource as much dev as possible to college programs. They think filtering the players through college would mean sifting out the busts (it probably would to some degree, Keoni Cavaco goes to college and K's too much to go as high as he did) but the players who would have ended up with the orgs who are good at developing don't get those guys anymore. What happens if Miz ends up at Duke or something, rather than with the Brewers?
12:42
I don't think Manfred hates baseball, to be clear. His job is to make money for the owners, his bosses.
12:43
And part of how they try to convince you and me that their aims are for the good of the game is to see how easy we are to manipulate and then attempt to do that. Look at the All Star voting results. Would *you* respect the intelligence of baseball fans? Or would you feel like they're dupable homers?
smb11488
12:43
I feel like a potential international draft would have negative effects on development and quality of international prospects. Where do you think those top prospects would develop from age 16-18? Am I just overrating what happens at a club’s complex during that time period now?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
I think you're right to wonder whether what would happen during those couple of seasons if it weren't happening on the Complex. I also think it's fair to wonder what goes on now when a verbal deal is reached with 12-13 year olds and then they spend 3-4 years "knowing" they're gonna get $X and maybe not caring anymore.
Beer:30
12:45
Way too early but have you gotten a closeup look at Alexander Frias? Seems the Brewers may have found another international gem.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
Has some warts (70% contact isn't great for down here, lotta ground balls right now) but he's crazy projectable, it feels like he's getting longer and taller right before our eyes, and I think he has real feel for moving his hands around the zone. I'm really excited about him.
hofstrascott20
12:46
But also just curious does 100 ABs in the ACL normally move a scouting report from what you saw in the previous season? Or at any level really? Thanks.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
It depends on what about the player might light me up during that window. Did I watch a guy for a whole week and come away impressed by his tools and am marrying that with 100 AB worth of data? That's not a bad recipe with which to draw a conclusion. Some data that benefits from a bigger sample, like contact rate, I'd grade the player knowing there's a bigger error bar on that stuff than if he had 700 PA.
ADoctolero
12:48
I know that the sample is small, but how surprised/impressed are you by Bryce Eldridge's command of the strike zone since being called up? I was fully prepared to watch him strike out a lot in exchange for dingers, but I did not have a K rate under 20% on my bingo card.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
Yeah, it's kinda crazy. It's so much different than his historical contact rate that I have to believe he'll eventually regress. Not to the point where he's bad (we love him, we stuffed him) but to the point where he's a 67-70% contact guy, give or take
rdf8585
12:49
What do we make of Owen Ayers and his breakout season? Hard to gauge what the long-term upside is, but would love to hear your thoughts.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
I dig him. Lots of late-bloomer traits, real big league frame ad athleticism, sniper's arm, good power for a catcher. Nice pull by the Cubs.
matt
12:50
When will we get movement on guys like hartman on the board?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
We'll crosscheck the contending teams' lists in the coming weeks. I have to update my draft board first but I'd expect updates to Cleveland, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Philly, etc. with coinciding pieces to start running before the end of this month and all through July.
Eminor3rd
12:53
I think we may see both Hiroto Saiki and Teruaki Sato posted this offseason if the Tigers win another one. Any latest thoughts on either?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:53
Nothing new beyond agreeing with you that those arms names I'm told MLB folks have gone over there to scout.
crzy_guy
12:53
Any thoughts on MLB's proposal? Seems terrible for the minors + reducing the bonus pool really will make it difficult to attract athletic multisport athletes.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
The multi-sport athlete point is sound. A reason some of the multi-sport guys pick baseball is because they can turn pro right away. Now you just lose that guy to football because the NIL money in college football is way bigger and better (pending the legislation being championed by the current administration)
BirdsFan
12:55
Appreciate the knowledge and you time.  Was excited to see SGF OF Jonah Cox come up.  Limited ABs so far.  , a dude or just a guy?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:58
Can really play CF and he's developed more pop than I thought when he first entered pro ball. His swing is still super long and he's poking an inordinate amount of his contact to right, he's also very chase prone. I think Brendan nailed his grade, he's a nice piece but I'd be surprised if he were an average or better everyday CF for an extended stretch.
Fangraphs Man
12:58
Colson Montgomery now has 5.7 fWAR and 41 dingers in his 141 game MLB career. Looking back at the report you and James had last year and... man I can't believe this actually worked out (no slight to your writeup at all, he was very clearly in 'freefall' as you guys termed it)
Eric A Longenhagen
12:58
Bro, me too. Guys who suddenly fall apart to the degree he did almost never bounce back.
Beer:30
12:59
High School phenoms are as prominent in baseball culture as hot dogs and beer. Can't imagine them not having a place.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:59
It's one thing baseball has over the other sports, especially now that basketball forces kids to college.
Connecting…