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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Hi everyone, give me like 2 min (I'm wrapping up a call about Cubs prospects)
(sorry)
12:04
Okay, thanks.
The Cardinals list is up on the site (but you probably already knew that)
Let's begin
Bloop and a Blast
12:04
Any chance Senzel moves to MI in the MLB? My fantasy team needs a SS.....
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Scouts considered him at 2B as an amateur and I suppose Eugenio Suarez's success could force the Reds to ask themselves if he can actually do it.
Jimmy Ballgame
12:05
Willy Adames starting at SS opening day for the Rays?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Maybe? What we know about TB and service time gives me pause in declaring him an opening day starter.
Tommy N.
12:06
Last time you had a reliever in the top 100? And does Andres Munoz have a chance of cracking that list one day?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
Yeah, the guys I think will be dominant fit the bill. I've had Frankie Montas on there in the past and Sandy Alcantara will make this year's while likely projecting in relief. Munoz could get there, sure. I'm guessing he blew up this weekend because he was on TV? Lotta questions about him in here. This is when I remind you to read the in-season Daily Notes: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-515/
James
12:09
Who among the Astros' corner infield backlog of White, Reed, Moran, and Davis has the best shot at making the team and having an impact? Do they trade some of the others?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
I prefer Davis of that group, then Reed.
Silly Beane
12:10
Eric, I'm enjoying the Cardinals top 23.  Thanks!  I'm curious about ranking Mercardo all the way down at #16.  Given all of the buzz I've seen about his "break out" I expected him to be higher than that--at least above Garcia.  Could you please elaborate a little bit on your ranking process and criteria?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
On the process: Between my in-person looks (one game in Springfield and all of Fall League) at Mercado and in discussing him with scouts, I arrive at the tool grades you see in the list. Those tool grades have real-world translation to on-paper performance and we can interpolate a player's overall role projection based on that.
12:14
On Mercado: He had been bad, really bad, for four years. He can run, he' fine in CF and had a good year with the bat, but his pull-only approach and aggressiveness, in concert with one another, gave me pause about his offensive future. I'm not convinced he hits enough to play everyday, so I have a bench grade on him.
James
12:14
Any chance the Astros take the Chris Sale route with JB Bukauskas and put him in the bullpen with an eye towards possibly stretching him out down the road?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
I have no inside info on that, but I know lots of clubs saw him as a reliever pre-draft, so yes I think that's possible. But I think it's more likely they just leave him in the bullpen (maybe in a multi-inning role) if he's dominant in their initial try.
Johnny
12:16
Giants desperately need a lefty reliever in the majors, anybody worthwhile in the pipeline? Snelten?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
I still think Okert is a better option
LegallyEagle
12:17
His pitching more established, how would you grade Ohtani as a hitter? 65 grade overall?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
70 overall, said in offseason (and I think summer 100) that he'd be my top guy. As a hitter I've got 40/45 hit with at least 60 raw.
EVH
12:20
With his strong season, does Dustin May make your top 100? What's your opinion on his ceiling and most probably outcome?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Not a top 100 lock. He's in that 45/50 limbo for me right now. Chance to be a mid-rotation guy more due to command than stuff.
Mike S
12:21
On your 5/2/17 chat someone asked Ignoring proximity to majors and the likelihood of reaching his full potential, which prospect in the minors has the highest ceiling?  You mentioned Moncada and Delvin Perez.   Obviously Perez had a disappointing year, but is he really no longer in the Cardinals top twenty?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
Yup. Six months of bad reports will do that.
Zwibi
12:23
How much does Senzel's ranking change with the rumors of him playing multiple positions next year. Seems he could have a serious impact as a MI
Eric A Longenhagen
12:23
Sure. League wOBA at 2B is like .317 and at 3B it's closer to .330
12:24
I'd like to see him play there, obviously.
He's already a highly ranked player, not sure how much will change.
Padres88
12:24
Brett Kennedy hasn't shown up on any lists despite a seemingly successful AA debut. The Padres are deep so he is understandably buried... is he a real SP prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Yeah, a possible #5 for me. Saw him this summer with San Antonio. 91-93 with some movement, average secondaries.
Cody
12:24
Would the Braves be smart to move Allard in a deal this winter to maximize his value, considering the depth of LHP prospects in the system and the concerns regarding his fastball?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
If there are concerns about his fastball then trading him now would probably not be 'maximizing his value.'
Cleg
12:26
Any chance Urias' raw power gets  a bump up from the future 40 you gave him last year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:27
I have a 45 on it based on AFL BP looks. He might hit so much that his game power outpaces his raw, though.
Jeff
12:27
How does Jose Albertos compare to say a Carlos Martinez or Luis Severino at the same age?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Body is worse, arm health more concerning. But he'll already show you three plus pitches whereas the other two needed time to tinker and find that extra weapon.
Bleh
12:29
How much does a year like the one Yadier Alvarez have on his prospect value?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
Maybe a half grade reduction. Still a 21-year old who reached and missed bats at Double-A. I still look at the delivery and think he'll eventually find enough command, though his lack of progress (on the breaking balls, too) is frustrating.
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