Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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jimmers90
12:45
Not the best hitter.. But who's swing do you love the most right now in the minors?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:45
I'm becoming obsessed with Grindlinger.
ED44
12:46
At last check, you were pretty high on Serwinowski. Still there? Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
12:48
I am. Fastball missing bats at an elite clip even though he's sitting 94. Even if he moves to the bullpen, what's that pitch gonna be like if he's throwing a couple ticks harder? Pretty dominant lefty reliever is the floor here. I'll take him ahead of some of the system's other volatile guys, like Harlan.
Barbaro Garbey
12:49
Bryce Rainer is currently on a real home run heater, with a 5 game homer streak ongoing...but overall, his K rate is still close to 35% on the year. Seems like the contact quality is impeccable, but do all the strikeouts put a cap on his ceiling? Like if he can't get the strikeouts down a bit at the high A level, is he doomed?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
He's maybe the prospect in the minors with the most extreme variance.
Max Rieper
12:49
How will the threat of a work stoppage affect how teams handle prospects?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
Honestly I'm more concerned with the BBWAA having its ducks in a row so everyone can see those guys during the spring when they're the only ones we can see.
Baby Yoda
12:51
Rainiel Rodriguez and Made are both having solid seasons in AA at 19. Made is a 65FV, RR is a 55. What drives the difference in their FV?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:54
One can play shortstop and the other might be a 1B. Made contact rate 81%, Rainiel 70%, Made 86% zone contact, Rainiel 76%, practically identical power metrics. One of them could feasibly get stronger (Made) while the other is already a husky guy. Pretty clearly there is
daylight between these two prospects.
srg0203
12:55
How has Emil Morales looked at defense this year? Bat has been as advertised, big power and striketouts, but I wonder if he staying on the dirt is still possible
Eric A Longenhagen
12:56
Bigger, slower guy but enough skill and arm strength that he's making it work. Would consider him a 3B risk but not a lock to move.
jimmers90
12:57
Did you think Lombards defense was THIS good? He is looking like Andrelton Simmons out there. Is it coaching and positioning that makes good defenders better in MLB?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:57
He's plus, he isn't Simba.
oysterburns
12:58
whats keeping Yohandy Morales from getting the callup? He look like a quad a guy or do you think this guy can hit major league pitching?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:58
I remain skeptical. Where is it you want him to play with Abi Ortiz getting his taste?
illardfillmore
1:00
AJ Ewing skipped a prospects update.  Where would you rank him today if he were still eligible?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:01
I would still have a 45+ on him. And Luis Lara is still a 45. Sticking to our guns on these guys is important to me.
drplantwrench
1:01
can you describe the obsession over Grindlinger in a bit more detail?  What do you see that you like?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:02
Like I watched the 2027 high school class he was supposed to be a part of, and then the next day watched him face rehabbing big leaguers and thrive. I'm pretty sure Grindlinger would just be the favorite to go 1st among the HS guys right now had he not reclassified.
laramblers2012
1:04
I’m a Cubs fan who was floored when we traded Jefferson Rojas for a mid-rotation rental SP and a bench bat. The only explanation that made sense to me is that Rojas’ value is much lower in the eyes of basically every front office in MLB than the publicly available prospect rankings would suggest. Even though he’s blocked, I just can’t imagine Jed would trade him for a good-but-not-elite rental if he thought he could get a top-50-prospect-caliber return for him in the offseason.

After looking at Rojas’ numbers this year, and learning the Cubs moved him from SS to 3B, it made more sense. He’s putting up an .800 OPS in his second try at AA, which is good, but not top-100 caliber, especially for someone who’s not a plus defender at a premium position.

Yet all the post-deadline rankings I’ve seen have kept him in that top-50 range. 

What do you think’s going on here? Do you think there’s a big gap between how front offices view him and how prospect evaluators view him? And if so, why?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:08
I think we might need to have a broad philosophical discussion about how it is you're assessing prospects if the guy's OPS is what you're using to judge. Rojas is a college-aged player who is performing well in the upper levels of the minors. He can play shortstop okay and is a good 3B. He was blocked by 4 guys ahead of him, and the Cubs made a decision to make a move with that in mind rather than view his surplus value versus that of a rental in a vacuum. IDK if Holmes is who I'd have targeted for this kind of maneuver given his injury. It's also possible teh Cubs don't like Rojas. We in the public space are wrong about players pretty often because there are so many to eval. Teams are wrong about players often, too. I'm happy to have thoughts about players that don't align with teams or my peers sometimes, it's better for the ecosystem of ideas. Rojas we all seem to like. Now we wait and see how he does in the pressure cooker of NY.
Most traded prospects, who the trading team knows more about than any of us, don't pan out great.
Jeremy Fox
1:08
Should the Phillies call up Gage Wood and stick him in the bullpen when rosters expand?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:08
They should do it asap.
1:09
I don't want Orion Kerkering fielding dribblers in front of him in a close game.
Jimmy
1:09
I'm curious as to what motivates teams to talk to public scouts. Is it that it gives them a chance to solicit outside perspectives? It's simply good to cultivate a large professional network? It's just fun to talk shop with some good people?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:12
Individual scouts might be incentivized for our public facing reports to look like theirs. I've heard from scouts whose internal reports on a player were much different than mine, and their bosses have asked them why that is. The closer to your internal evals mine/ours are here, at BA, wherever, the easier it is to communicate with other teams about an ask on a trade. You can point to a public list that closely resembles your own and set expectations. Teams also have incentive to pump up their own guys. I've known enough people for long enough now to trust a certain number of them, some of them will feel free to say "hey, this guy is not working hard" or whatever, and then I'm more likely to believe them when they say "hey, this guy's a badass"
sportznut3
1:13
Who is a guy drafted outside the top 3 rounds this year that you really liked?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:13
Will Adams
mfeinstein11
1:15
What’s driving the difference in your evaluation of Seaver King vs. consensus (T100 guy on other sites)?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:16
Complete inability to pull the ball and weird throwing accuracy issues on defense. love the athlete, love the motor, think the new regime is moving the needle on a lot of their guys but when I wrote up Washington he (especially on defense) looked bad.
scotth855
1:16
We've gotten the full Joshua Baez experience huh? 3 Homers in one game then has 1 hit (single) in his next 6 games with a k-rate above 30%.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:16
Righty Spencer Jones
1:17
Ok yall, time to go. Enjoy the weekend of baseball!
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