Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Good morning, readers. Thanks for coming to another chat. Let's get right to it.
veest
12:02
How is Dylan Jordan looking these days? I know there was some velo improvement, but is anything else moving forward?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
Struggled with walks for the better part of the last two months. 93-96 t97 with extreme uphill angle because of his delivery, slider 80-84 generating elite miss. Still a good pitching prospect even though he's struggled with strikes, could end up having multiple plus-plus pitches.
Anthony Hoehner
12:05
Okay, I can’t ignore it anymore. Is Ryan Cesarini an actual prospect?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
Yep, platoon OF prospect. Great pull-side, high-ball hitter, especially against righties. 50 hit, 55 power against righties, more like 35 hit, 45 power against lefties. Swings over the top of lots of soft stuff down and away from him. How much that gets exposed by big leaguers will dictate whether or not he sticks. He should get an opportunity at some point in his mid-20s, doesn't have to go on Cleveland's 40-man until after 2027 season so look out for him in '28
crazyhorse
12:07
Happy Walker Jenkins Day
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
Heeeey, happy happy, just in time for a huge division series.
warpath
12:09
Hi Eric, thanks for the chat! With many recent draftees now fully entrenched in affiliated ball, I wanted to ask if any late-round, under-the-radar guys have popped in pro ball so far and caught your eye? I've heard a lot about the performance of higher pick guys, but wanted to know if anyone had positively surprised so far.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Not that I have personally run into in Arizona. Rockies OF Dimirti Williams has done some stuff for me but not in such a big way that I'd feel the need to tell you about him without you asking. The guys who've stood out for me are guys you know, like Conner Comeau and Jared Grindlinger.
rainingmozzarella
12:12
Since Mike Hazen took over as General Manager in late 2016, the most successful international signing the team has had is Justin Martinez at 1.3 WAR. The next best is Miguel Aguilar at 0.0 WAR. 
So the Dbacks can’t develop international players, and they can’t develop pitching. 
Do you have any thoughts on how and why they’ve been such a failure in those areas? And is there any hope for improvement?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
They've changed who has helmed both the Int'l scouting and dev group during his tenure. I think the int'l athletes who they've added look pretty good. They've taken more of a depth-driven, go-wide approach the last few years under the current group. Sure, none of those guys has raced to the big leagues, but they're good-looking prospects in the middle of the system...
But of course, when you take the go-wide approach, part of why you do that is because you're subjecting a greater number of players to what is supposed to be good player development. When you don't have that, the strategy isn't as sharp as when the Brewers do it.
12:18
Why are they bad at it? I don't know. I think the D'Backs are a curious group, they're not a bunch of luddites or anything. I think developing pitching is less scientific than analyzing it. I also think it takes a cohesive process where you're drafting players the dev group knows beforehand they can improve.
rainingmozzarella
12:18
I know you've been a massive fan of Ketel Marte. Do you have thoughts on the drama?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
Yeah, the first playoff series in 2017 when he hit an absurd home run and had an incredible series was when I first shot up and realized this guy was likely to hit a different gear, that he had just been either sick (mono) or injured before this and was kind of hidden in obscurity...
12:24
It's not fair to psychoanalyze someone based on their mannerisms, but Ketel has always struck me as a guy who behaves as if he knows he's always being watched, not a lot about how he moves through the world seems comfortable or authentic. It isn't *that* big of a deal, in my opinion. I'm watching Hard Knocks and John Schneider and his "coke daddy" look wanna sign Terrion Arnold because Jalen Milroe said he's a good guy. To me that's insane. If Ketel had some kind of social anxiety I wouldn't be surprised. My brother (who I love) no-shows family stuff and doesn't return phone calls because he has profound social anxiety, and there are times when it irks me but mostly I know he's doing what he needs to do to get by...
12:26
Where I think this situation sucks is for Lovullo, who I imagine pounded the table for Ketel and now might be catching hell from Ken Kendrick because he can't get Ketel to change. I think the way Lovullo's handled himself in front of the media during this stretch is pretty amazing (Carroll, too) and I hope Kendrick views it that way when it comes time to discuss a ocntract extension.
ED44
12:26
Hi Eric. Thanks for all the great work. The Friday chats are always high on my list. How likely are we to see Cam Cannarella and/or Owen Ayers this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Ayers might come up yet this season because there's a chance he's better than Amaya right now. Cannarella idk how they wanna play that. They're clearly in "value uber alles" mode and that makes me think they'll wait until his 40-man timeline arrives naturally, but the pace of his promotion doesn't indicate that. He's a better CF defender than Marsee. Had they stayed in it maybe he'd already be up.
sox94
12:28
How worried should we be about Kade Anderson's FB shape in his first MLB start?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Give it some time to see how he adjusts to the different baseball.
12:29
He's deceptive enough that I think it'll be okay, but this is part of why he's a 60 and not a 65 or 70: the velo is just alright.
Remember MacKenzie Gore's 2019 (I think) season? It was so, so dominant, he's gotta be great right away, right? Right?
oaktownblues
12:30
A couple unheralded alliterative A's catchers having good MiLB seasons this year in Cole Conn and Davis Diaz. Do you like either of them? Any insight on their receiving abilities?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Should see at least one of them in Fall League, I think. Diaz I liked in HS as a contact-hitting shortstop, he's small for a catcher and has little pop but it's maybe plus-plus contact.
He's a well below avg framer
12:33
Conn is more balanced, switch-hitter with above contact and more like 40/45 power. He's at least good at framing the glove-side corner of the plate, but not really the other edges.
rossredcay
12:33
Since Slater de Brun came back from injury, he's getting on base a ton and running a bunch, but the power is completely MIA.  I see he's running ~70% GB rate at Low-A.  Is there something mechanical causing this (like with Justin Crawford)?  Is there an EV issue here as well or does he just need to get the ball in the air more?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Has always been a downhill swing path guy, skills over tools type who I've compared to smushed Evan Carter. His career started on a full year delay, so I think it's okay to give his profile time to breath. You can see where I've got him on the Rays list, and I imagine it's lower than other outlets because I was a bit lower on deBrun pre draft iirc.
Syndergaardengnomes
12:35
You mentioned last week that the track record for trading prospects is not great...  In a season where the NL MVP, NL Cy Young winner, and AL Triple Crown winner all might be traded prospects, I was curious if anyone had done an actual study on this?
Eric A Longenhagen
Should've specified at the deadline
Taylor Trammel multiple times etc etc
BP
12:36
Scouting the stat line for Caden Bodine looks similar to Alejandro Kirk. Is that a good offensive comparison? Or not that similar?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Catching John Olerud?
rossredcay
12:36
You mentioned in the Dodgers deadline writeup / list update that Cam Leiter could be a guy that gets into the T100 given the additional dev upside that could be lurking here due to injury.  Does he need to do anything other that stay healthy / get stretched out for that to happen?  Does the breaking ball dev piece also need to come along for him to make that jump?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:38
Better fastball locations are the biggest thing, not getting a lot of chase for a guy who touches 100 with 7ft of extension
willt
12:39
Does the consistent good performance from 20-grade contact guys like Murakami and Kurtz shock you at all?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Yes, and it worries me that more and more of the game will end up being guys who whiff a ton but have great contact quality when they don't. The number of sub-70% contact guys is growing and I probably need to re-assess my baselines.
viktor06
12:40
who do you think has a higher chance to win roty, Carson benge or porter martone (Calder)
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