Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
Good morning, chat. Happy September Stretch Run to you all.
Brendan Smith
12:18
Will you be at the first weekend of the AZ Fall League? Any tips for a first-time attendee?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Yep, I'll be here all season save for maybe one weekend where I slip out of town for football. My first tips for newbs is to check the schedule to make sure you're not accidentally coming here when the group is playing down in Tucson, or when there are off days to avoid counter-programming the world series. Look at the schedule and see when the games take place consecutively so you can double and triple up.
12:22
My second piece of advice is to avoid Glendale during the day if it's still pretty hot outside. The way that ballpark is oriented leaves you without shade.
scottsjunk1981
12:23
Have you seen anything unexpected in Jackson Kent's first few starts?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Just that the strikes have been *this* bad. Changeup is missing bats at a plus clip. Think he's still in that no. 4/5 SP area long term.
rainingmozzarella
12:25
Any possibility Carlos Virahonda and David Hagaman could see some top 100 love in the offseason?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Yes. Hagaman is the more obvious one. Sitting 93, add a tick of perceived velo because it's 7ft of extension, breaking stuff all missing bats at a plus rate, underlying strikes are better than his walk rate, changeup is good enough to be a fourth pitch, mid-rotation starter size... checks a ton of boxes
12:29
Virahonda it's contact and defense. Power performance has been a mirage relative to his true talent, this guy shas well below vaerage bat speed, but he can move the barrel around.
12:30
Don't think he's a top 100 guy, but think he's in that 40+/45 territory
Biscuit
12:31
Is this about what you expected out of Carter Jensen when he was a prospect, or is there another gear in there?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
This is the kind of overall output I expected. Based on Brendan's tool grades he thinks there's another gear of contact/batting average in there. I put a 30 on his hit tool, he's K'ing 28% of the time so that's how it's played so far. Still getting to power and catching well enough to be a 2+ WAR player. Had him graded like that for a while, I remember when it was controversial (based on comments I got in this chat) to have him ahead of Blake Mitchell.
scottsjunk1981
12:34
Andrew Alvarez is up to 114 innings of 3.38 FIP and 3.24 ERA. Has your evaluation of his arsenal shifted at all? Or do you still project him to approximately replacement level going forward?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
Velo is up a tick and a half, so that's different. Stuff in terms of its movement and his pitch mix are the same. Fastball still surrendering a ton of hard contact. I think he's done enough to show that he's above replacement. Low leverage swingman, you could 40 him if you want.
Big Fan
12:37
I read that John Gil changed where he had his hands, and that might be contributing to his strong run at AA.  Have you heard about any mechanical changes Alex Lodise might have made?  His strikeout rate evaporated at High A and is still lower in a small sample at AA than it was in Low A.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:39
I'll be honest and say that watching 2025 Gil versus now doesn't reveal anything I would consider a change.
12:45
Lodise I'd say his angle of attack has changed some
When his hands load his barrel is more vertical now
BaseballBundesliga
12:45
You've said Laz Montes contact rate isn't going to play. Assuming the Ms know that, is the call up just because the strength of schedule is bad? Let him fail in an environment he can't slug his way out of?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:46
He's a beam of sunshine and positivity which is exactly what the doctor ordered for that group. They're toast, imo, it's a low-stakes way to get his feet wet and see how he does against big league stuff.
I Like Big Buxton
12:47
What does Emmanuel Rodriguez have to do to get a look this month? He's out of options next year, so the Twins should be getting him some MLB experience, right? Should he have been called up instead of Jenkins?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:49
They're fighting for a playoff spot so they should be putting their best guys out there, which I think is clearly Jenkins. They're outfield mix on the 40-man is crowded and they need to cull some of it, which I imagine might include trading E Rod
CherryTomato
12:49
Any recent notes on Brett Bateman? Obviously he hits the ball on the ground a bunch and in the bigs is running a high BABIP but curious if his hit tool is good enough to make him a borderline regular.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:50
His bat-to-ball feel is special enough that he's something, he's Ernie Clement but in a corner OF spot. Note the enormous gap between his xwOBA and actual wOBA. I think he's more of a 40 than a 45 or 50.
ethanlowe
12:51
do you think De Paula starts 2027 in the majors?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
I do, that roster is old enough to conclude it will experience considerable turnover.
bdelbanco
12:52
Is Yostin Pena on is way to the top 100 and an upgraded FV?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:52
It's possible. The way the K's have stayed down even after a two-level promotion is very exciting.
George
12:52
Very specific question, but back in April you speculated Luis Perales might get an additional option year based on  his injury recovery timeline. I’m curious whether you've heard an update to that. Feels relevant as his control might still not be ready for the major league bullpen right away next year.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:53
I actually don't know, lemme ask someone and see if I can get an answer before the end of chat.
His stuff is great, but yeah you can see why I preferred the Boston end of that trade.
Lil Nubber
12:53
Will there be a Rule 5 draft this offseason? Will any teams get aggressive with their 40 man decisions betting that there won't be?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
I don't think there will be. It has been a topic of conversation at the field the last couple of weeks, scouts with teams who I think have a crunch telling me their team bet on the Rule 5 getting banged.
ljax1979
12:54
Overall, do you think the Royals farm system has improved or regressed this season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:57
Improved. Gomez played as well as hoped, got good seasons from Chourio, Lamkin and Shields, fun/deep draft class because of under-slot Zion, Hammond hit pretty well... good year
Hecubot
12:57
Henry Bolte is third on the A's in fWAR at 1.9 over 98 games.  He's one of the only guys on the team with positive numbers for offense, defense and baserunning. Fastest guy in baseball. wRC+ of 106 and his recent two homer game showed his easy power to the opposite field.  He's actively retooling his swing at the major league level to get more balls in the air. Looks like 3.0 fWAR is his floor.  Any reevaluation on your part?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:58
I'm gonna stick to my guns on Crawford, Ewing, and Bolte guys.
and Josh Baez
12:59
Prospects can't all turn out great. It's useful to point out when you think they're just going to be okay, and for me Bolte is one of them.
Rayball
1:00
Any changes to your Joshua Baez outlook after his first 62 big league ABs?
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