Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
1:00
Our 40 hit tool grade was too enthusiastic, he's going to strike over a third of the time.
Rayball
1:00
Cade Winquest have any possibility of being an SP down the line?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:00
It's an athletic delivery but in the outings I've seen he doesn't have that kind of command. Curveball-heavy reliever.
bosoxforlife
1:01
I am of the opinion that the Orioles put one over on the Red Sox in the Eyanson, Azocar, Witherspoon and Rivas trade for Rutschman. Do you have the same view?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:03
It was a lot to give up for a year and a half of Adley, as much as I love him. But if I told you, of that group, that only Eyanson pans out, how would you feel about it. Everyone of that foursome has stuff that might undo them. Witherspoon I liked pre-draft but he's been bad, he's a reclamation project at this point. Azocar chases. Rivas is years and years away. Eyanson's delivery is scary... Let's just let it play out.
Philip Christy
1:04
I'm sure you get this question a lot: is Franklin Arias the Red Sox 2027 Opening Day shortstop?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:05
IDK, you're asking me to predict the behavior of a franchise that has, at times, behaved strangely. I think a lot of it is going to depend on how Story looks the last month+ of the season.
Joel
1:06
How has Josuar Gonzalez's performance since being promoted to Low A changed your longer term view of him, if at all. Know its a small sample. Thanks!
Eric A Longenhagen
1:06
Yes. Healthy and playing well, the best defender of their young SS group, will be elevated into the 55 tier, at least.
bersmr
1:06
Thoughts on Walcott? Is it a hot streak? Is he the best prospect in baseball?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:08
Love him, remember he was in the 4th to 6th range overall before he got hurt. Absolutely talented and projectable enough to be the top overall guy. Wanna see him play shortstop before the season is over, please.
Jatheesh Srikantharajah
1:08
Was Brody Hopkins sudden loss of control de to mechanical adjustments? What happened?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:09
He made huge mechanical changes on arrival in TB but his strikes didn't totally evaporate until this season. He's now in the bullpen and hasn't walked anyone in his last four appearances. I think there's a chance you see him in Tampa's bullpen before the end of the year and maybe as a postseason weapon. I won't quit liking this guy.
apeloton
1:10
Any thoughts on BA’s reporting on the MiLB ball this week, and does it change your views on anyone? Was kind of an open secret but hadn’t seen it quantified in that depth previously
Eric A Longenhagen
1:12
It impacts the way I view year-over-year changes to guys' performance. You need the context of this season's baseball rather in addition to the players' career progression. We won't be looking at guys' power data this offseason and assuming "Hey, he got better!" because they all did. But as you said, and as both Brendan and I have addressed in this space since basically April, this has been a known thing all season.
R.B. Urgess
1:12
How much do you buy into the concerns about Florentino's contact rates?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:15
Enough to have had him toward the back of the 100 instead of the front. Based on the nature of questions about him in this space, I'd guess he has been a good bit over-valued by the Air/Pull% Gooners. No offense to those guys, it's good to identify the players who have outlier data in that category, but yeah you watch Florentino and look at other elements of the data and there are issues.
Ben Zimmermann
1:15
Is Vance Honeycutt's AA success real and a sign he's finally putting it together?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:15
C'mon.
Vee
1:16
Do draftees ever go to fall league? That seems like it would be a long year. I'd love to keep watching Caden Sorrell hit.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:17
They would back in the day, but it's more rare now. I think Ethan Petry was our only one last year.
Sorrell is a good candidate, any advanced college hitter is a good one.
viceroy
1:17
Would you update Kade Anderson’s command grades given the season he’s had?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:18
Yeah, but I don't think it's plus or anything.
rbower
1:18
Do we think Jace LaViolette will ever hit enough? The K rates have been hideous
Eric A Longenhagen
1:18
No
Matthew
1:18
Do you think Owen Ayers has what it takes to be a starting catcher?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:18
Yes
Patrick Burke
1:18
Thinking about Spencer Jones's moderate success and how it maps to what Andrew Fischer is doing. How can you judge if a prospect can still be a good hitter even if they have a high K Rate? Is what Jones is doing sustainable?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:22
You can be if you're hitting for enough power when you actually make contact, and if you're dangerous against pitches all over the zone. Ohtani and Schwarber, etc. whiff a ton, but they can also crush a pitch in on their hands, as well as down and away from them... they whiff but still cover the zone with power. The guys I'm more worried about having sustained success are the ones who whiff way more than any good big leaguer, which includes Murakami (a more flush comp for Fischer from a body/swing standpoint), Jones and Fischer, whose contact rates are in the 60-62% area.
1:23
There have been, each year, more and more players with sub-70% contact rates. Teams are more and more comfortable with the whiffing if there's power to be had when contact is made. Fischer theoretically does the things you'd want someone to do who is going to perform despite K'ing a third of the time.
Murakami since the break is hitting .188
But still has a 108 wRC+ becaus eof walks and power
1:25
okay, I ran the light a bit this week and need to split. Thanks for coming again this week. I'm traveling next week but still anticipate I'll be able to chat. See you then.
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