Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Hello friends and neighbors, it's good to be home in Tempe and back on the backfield grind. Let's chat for an hour and go do some more, shall we?
rossredcay
12:04
Anything to get excited about with Max Williams?  Sounds like big EVs and decent enough contact rates?  Is this a possible helium guy?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
Marlins good-bodied OF prospect out of Florida State, really physical 22-year-old kid with big lefty pop. Missed most of the season with a shoulder issue (iirc) and then raked in a limited sample. Plus power, metrics way better than they were last year. I can see why Beeg slid him off the main section of the Marlins list based on last year's data, but it looks way different than in '25. 51% hard hit, 114 max. Contact rate is scary, down at 70% even though he was mostly in A-ball this year. Def a prospect, still probably a lower-ranked one.
Bud Smith
12:08
Any idea what happened to Aiva Arquette? It was surprising to see him placed on the IL with two days left in the AA season
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Blerg, I didn't see that. Let me see if I can run down what happened and his Fall League prognosis during chat...
Charles Bengal Tiger
12:10
Of the players likely coming over this offseason from Korea and Japan, who projects to have the biggest impact ... and contract?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
I think Teruaki Sato will be this offseason's main guy. Kaima Taira, Andres Machado, Austin Dean, Darnwinzon Hernandez, Seigi Tanaka, Hiromi Itoh, Hiroko Saiki and perhaps Kona Takahashi are the other names that have been bandied about
I'm working on an update on Asian pros for next week btw
rossredcay
12:14
You and Brendan have both been pretty high on TGA in the past, but I believe have both expressed some concern about the lack of progression this year.  Where are you all landing on him as of the end of the year?  Is he still a T100 candidate or has that been bumped back another year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
I imagine we'll elevate him because he's checked the stamina and durability box more soundly now that he threw 100 innings. The "evaluation" really hasn't changed even though he had a FIP near 5, it's just about how we "value" him because he's a level closer, a year closer, and demonstrated the innings piece.
I Like Big Buxton
12:17
The Twins have Victor Caratini signed through next season. If they don't get a free-agent C as a backup, is any of their AAA depth capable of the job? Do you think Diaw (or even Lackey) could be ready by midseason?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
I think they should play in the third catcher market and roll with Caratini, Jackson, and a third guy until Lackey is ready, and I do think it could become apparent that he is in the middle of next year. I don't think Diaw is a catcher, or at least I think he's still too green to be in the big leagues when camp breaks.
wheelhouse
12:20
with the caveat that the K rate is still terrible, what’s led to spencer jones running better contact rates in MLB than he did in the minors? is it a mechanical adjustment, has he just improved, or do you think it’s just noise and he’s the same
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
It's probably small sample noise. I would imagine a greater ratio of his big league plate appearances came against righties (or against pitchers who Boone thought were favorable matchups for him), whereas in the minors he was just playing every day.
rossredcay
12:23
Should we read anything into Max Anderson not getting the call during September?  My understanding is he needs to be added to the 40 this offseason.  Would have made sense to get a look at him if they liked him more, yes?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Could have just been Hao-Yu Lee (very similar role player) getting hot down the stretch and commanding the playing time, and it also might be that the Tigers don't think there will be a Rule 5 Draft because of the lockout and didn't want to add him unnecessarily.
mikepbrochu
12:24
what did you think of angeibel gomez
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
Working on that piece for later today, will include video of him homering. It was a first look, I'm not "all in" in quite the same way I was with Made, but he's physical and has real power.
rainingmozzarella
12:25
Let's say, hypothetically, the Dbacks trade Perdomo this offseason. Can Jose Fernandez handle is defensively over a full season?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26
The defense piece he can do, yes. But you're talking about a sub-.300 OBP everyday shortstop. I'm irrationally attached to Perdomo (even though sometimes he seemed scared to cut it loose this year, bunting in 2-0 counts and whatnot) and don't want him moved.
rossredcay
12:28
Not a prospect anymore, but you were really high on Edgardo Henriquez if I remember correctly?  Do you think he has a shot to grab the closer role in LA at some point early next year?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
Yes, back of the top 100 guy for me a couple years ago. Freak arm strength. I do think he'll be in the closer miz.
appayipyip
12:28
Does Spencer Miles have the stuff to start? Or should the Jays leave him in the bullpen?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
I think he has the mix to start, it's more about whether he can stay healthy in that role.
oaktownblues
12:28
Appreciated the notes you posted from the instructs game the other day. When you said Montero "made several impressive (if technically unsound) plays at shortstop", what does that mean exactly? Like he made some tough plays, but he looked awkward making them?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
Trying to get around on balls he should just backhand.
appayipyip
12:29
Brett Bateman ran an unsustainable BABIP, but the contact ability seems real. With his speed and defense is there an everyday CF in there? Or is he a 4th OF who ran an unsustainable BABIP?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:29
The thing about him that I think is bunk are his defensive metrics. That's a fringe CF for me. Love the bat to ball piece and think his move in the box allows him to get more out of his little body than I expect. Think he's a piece but not a 50 or anything like that.
nuxie
12:29
What happened with the Reds and Driveline? Reds being cheap?or difference in philosophy? Have you heard what the latest is on Derek Johnson? Heard he took a leave of absence and never heard anything more about him.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
Man, idk. The Driveline folks move fast, they're never in any one place for very long. Teams take their framework and then try to apply it on their own. Sometimes it's just not the right interpersonal fit. DJ i have no idea.
rossredcay
12:31
Odds Davalan can actually handle second base?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:33
There are probably three outcomes for that:
  1. He's bad, unplayable (like 85%). If your college coach would rather you not play there, chances are you aren't good enough to do it.
  2. He's okay enough to put there sometimes. You know he's bad but have a K/FB pitcher throwing, or you made in-game platoon moves and now he's there for 3 innings (10%)
  3. He's good enough to play there everyday (5%)
we're about to find all this out in AFL, hopefully.
rossredcay
12:34
Brendan mentioned he'll be pounding the table for Bernal as a T100 addition.  Would you concur with that?  Thoughts on his MLB performance so far?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
Give me all the catching depth
Jonathan Adelman
12:34
Are people who played college or pro ball generally considered more likely to become strong scouts?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
You have a foundation of interpersonal relationships and knowledge of the schedule that would prevent you from drowning, plus you've already had to do a version of the travel piece. There are definitely advantages to it, but some orgs are much more open to who they consider for those roles and whether or not you're an ex-player isn't important. Cistulli's Blue Jays tenure is going well enough that he moved to Toronto. That guy was writing poetry in college, not taking infield aor improving his shoulder mobility.
slamcactus
12:36
I've asked Brendan this but I'm curious about your thoughts too. Any thoughts on why, for all their recent success developing pitchers, the Mariners haven't produced a single even halfway decent pitching prospect from Latin America recently? Seems like a weird disconnect and, if it's about focusing their scouting efforts on hitters, a potential missed opportunity.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:40
Some of the "blame" can be attributed to how difficult it is to develop Latino pitching, period. The 40-man timeline compresses their development, guys like Francisco Morales and Helcris Olivarez get added prematurely because they have big stuff, and then they can't develop as strike-throwers quickly enough to stick on the roster. Look around the game and there aren't a ton of DOminican starters, generally.
12:41
Some of it is they gave guys like Dawel Joseph and Starlin Aguilar a bunch of money rather than try to go-wide with projectable pitchers. Overall they're doing okay in latin america, I'd say. but yeah the pitching part is not why.
war2d2
12:41
Eric! I was thinking about Jaxon Wiggins, and how going into the season everyone expected he would be a potential second-half call-up candidate, but instead was hurt and then bad and now looks like he might be nothing at all. Obviously that particular case affects me more than you because I root for his parent club, but what are some guys that might have missed this year that really got you down? Like “man, I thought that guy was gonna pop this year and he didn’t.”
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