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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
Good morning from surprisingly chilly Tempe.
If you missed some notes from my weekend looks, they are here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/draft-notes-from-college-baseballs-ope...
12:04
I also saw Oregon St (Madrigal, Larnach, etc) but those guys are back in town this week so waiting to write them up after the weekend.
Also wrote up the guy TB got back from MIN for Odorizzi, Jermaine Palacios: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-new-rays-prospect...
Okay, lt's begin.
Tommy N.
12:04
With the Hosmer signing what happens to guys like Naylor and Austin Allen now?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
You just hope they play themselves into a trade around the time when you're looking to add to the big club on the trade market.
A big dumb idiot
12:05
Will reduced mound visits have any tangible effects on pitching?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06
Probably in some subtle ways. The "here's how we're going to pitch to this hitter your about to face' visit probably goes away, which maybe makes some other form of hitter-specific prep important for batteries before starts.
Armandus
12:06
Good Afternoon and what can we all do to help bring back Bionicle?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:07
You need a time machine to go back and kidnap my brother at age 10, then make enough copies of him to create sufficient demand.
Zonk
12:08
Do you think Ian Happ can repeat his decent rookie year, or does the K-Rate give you pause?  Was his defense better than advertised?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Think he's a super utility guy who provides above-average value over the course of a season and he's the go-to regular if someone gets hurt at a position he's capable of playing. He;s a 55. Don't know if the defense is better, but I think it's worth asking if you'd rather have a guy be a 40 or 45 glove at like four position instead of a 50 glove at one.
DR
12:10
The Zac Lowther type of prospect (college performer without elite velo, spin rate star) who profiles as a relatively low risk4/5 starter will almost never make it on a Top 100, but will keep being a big league asset, is that fair to say?  Or are evaluators changing how they rate guys like that
Eric A Longenhagen
12:11
Since the 100 is made up of 50 FV guys, low-variance 45s (that's what a #4/5 starter is) don't make it.
12:12
Unless your org has reason to prioritize probability over upside in a really significant way, that's probably not top 100 for anyone even if they're thinking progressively about how you line up prospects.
Q-Ball
12:12
Did the clubs who acquired IFA space for Ohtani but not use it (SEA, TEX), figure out a way to deploy it well?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:14
I know Seattle just signed a few kids, but I don't have much on them. Texas signed Keithron Moss from the Bahamas for $800k. So they've each spent at least some of that mooney but I don't know off the top of my head how much either of them have left.
45blowzbillygoats
12:15
What can we expect from Christin Stewart this year.  Does that power play him into any role in the Detroit lineup?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:17
There's a non-zero chance he hits enough at Triple-A to foce their hand, at least in September, but the 40-man already has  DH/bad glove guys in V-Mart and Castellanos, they probably want to do whatever it takes to roster Victor Reyes all year, Gerber is a better platoon partner for Mahtook, etc. Lots working against a quick Stewart callup
Big Joe Mufferaw
12:17
Do you think MLB should allow draft picks to be traded? If so, what would the value of a 1st round pick? Would, let's say, a good, not great RP at the deadline be worth a 1st?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
I'd like them to do that but everything that ties picks to free agency would have to be scrubbed for it to work.
12:20
And the second question depends on the team. Would a team fighting for a playoff spot move a first rounder that's likely to be in the 20s for an impact reliever? Maybe. But a team likely to pick 12-17 or something would never do that.
Bored Lawyer, Esq.
12:21
Any rumblings you’ve heard as to which prospects may be given challenging assignments to start the year, or too early yet?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:21
Too early, that buzz starts surrounding guys who go nuts in spring training, especially if a pitcher has had a clear uptick in stuff.
Q-Ball
12:22
How do northern colleges start playing baseball in February?  There's still snow on the ground up here!   Do they just play in colder conditions than the pros?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
Many of them head south for a weekend or two, but there are still plenty of games in the northeast and mid atlantic in March and April that are really miserable. Area scouts will be sitting on cold, wet, metal bleachers for hours just hoping to see a team's closer at the end of the game.
Michael Moore
12:25
Can Nick Senzel succeed at shortstop? Is there any history of guys moving up the defensive spectrum in the minors like this? Would be huge for the Reds
Eric A Longenhagen
12:28
There's a chance. The number of teams who think you can hide a lack of range with good defensive positioning seems to be growing. He has other physical attributes that work fine at short. I have no idea what his actions are like around the bag, if I had to pick a reason he doesn't work out there, it's that.
Josh Nelson
12:29
Nick Madrigal is having a hot start to the season. Is size really the biggest concern that scouts have with him? Could Madrigal be the next Jose Altuve?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:31
Yeah, some are concerned about his size. If you think he's more brittle because  of it, I guess I get that. But why else does that matter? He's shows you he can do everything else. I don't like "the Next X', for anything, especially a player as unique as Altuve.
Bert
12:31
Do Hunter Harvey or Brady Aiken have a good chance to return to form after several injuries?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:32
Harvey has a much better chance because, when he pitches, his stuff is good, Aiken's hasn't been since he returned.
Kyle
12:34
How deep Is this years draft?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:34
55 depth? Maybe 60 HS pitching depth?
pH
12:34
Where would Julio Urias fit in the top 100 prospects if he was still eligible?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:35
Just have zero idea until we see him pitch.
Lance
12:35
Did Trevor Larnach change his launch angle?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:36
I have to look and see if there was a swing change but I don't think so. He just hits the ball rally hard. The HR I saw him hit on Friday left the bat at 114mph. He hit several other balls in the 109-111 range.
Here are our draft rankings, by the way: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-draft-rankings-2018-2019-and-2020/
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