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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
2:02
Hey, everyone. Good morning from Tempe.
Here's our recently updated top overall prospects list: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/
2:03
Not much else to link to as everything had been building up to the draft and that update, so now we have more irons in the fire than we do stuff to plug.
2:04
I'm gonna chat longer than usual this week because I bailed on last week's chat, so without further adieu..
Joe
2:04
Thoughts on the Brewers draft haul?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:07
I liked it. I'm not the biggest Joe Gray fan because I saw him swing and miss against good pitching a lot throughout his amateur career, but he's been a known guy for a long time and you could argue we nitpitcked him to death. At worst he has a traditional power/projection right field profile, which is a fine thing to draft in the second round, and Gray has a better chance to stay in CF than most prospects like that because his feel out there is good and might enable him to stay there even if he slows down.
I also really like Bello and Ashby.
Paul
2:07
Can you expand on that Brett Cumberland jump?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:09
Kiley saw him, thought the defense had improved, we each checked with people who had seen him and got general agreement. We both think he's going to hit and if you fold a stronger likelihood that he'll catch into the profile, it's much, much stronger.  We also have a lot of catchers with good bats toward the back of the 50 FV section and he fits with those guys.
Mike
2:09
What did you think of the Simeon Woods-Richardson pick?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:12
I like him. We had him ranked at 100 on our board. He went 48th.  That makes it look like a reach (or at least like we might call it one) but we had a 40 on Simi and a 40+ on the guy ranked 48th, so pretty marginal difference.
2:13
Woods-Richardson is a good athlete, two-way guy with power, low to mid-90s, good secondary stuff. He's young for the class but not as physically projectable as most 17-year-old draftees so I don't know that I'd give him the same age-related bump as we do other prospects.
Joe
2:13
Been seeing a lot of love lately for Oneil Cruz. Odds of sticking at short? Will the bat play anywhere?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:15
He's performing better than last year but looks the same from a scouting perspective, which is to say he's physically remarkable and very talented but still looks really awkward at times.
2:16
If he stays at short it would be historic, he's listed at 6-6- but someone with LAD told me they measured him at 6-8 when he arrived for his final spring with LA before he was traded. I can't see that playing at shortstop. I've seen Cruz play third and thought he was playable there but that he'd eventually move to RF. He's one of the weirded prospects in baseball
Judge
2:16
Who has the best raw power in MiLB.
Eric A Longenhagen
JD
2:18
Is there reason to fear that Michel Baez's dropoff has been something more than just injury hangover?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:20
One of those situations that could go either way. Look at Giolito. Sometimes the velo just goes away. That's not to say Baez suddenly has concerning velo issues, it's just not as hard as it was last year and has been like that for a while now, so he has to move down.
Mark
2:21
Do you think Neidert's fastball will play up enough to make the package work as a starter? I know Hendricks is the usual comp, but would Hendricks's fastball be graded at 40, as you have Neidert's?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:23
I think Neidert does enough other stuff that he gets by with a 4 fastball. Hendricks had a 4 fastball when he was sitting 87-89, he's not throwing that hard right now.
Al
2:24
Surprised Tirso didn’t make your updates list. Is defense the main thing holding him back? What’s his offensive upside?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:26
You'd have to think he's a 7 bat to have him grouped with the 50s or better. And I don't think that's crazy. It's an aggressive, optimistic projection, but not crazy. I think he fits in with the 45 FV 1B/corner OF prospects pretty comfortably. Aren't many corner-only teenagers we have 45s or better on, Tirso has strong placement among his peers in our eyes.
Mark
2:26
How do you consider projecting a player who could make a change that would unlock talent vs. the typical projection of talent growth? Yandy Diaz being the poster child for this example. As an evaluator, are you forced to grade on Yandy with today's swing, and note the upside of a possible swing adjustment, or is a possible change built into his FV grade? Is there a likelihood of change factor involved?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:27
This is a great question and one I ask myself and struggle with. Here are all the ways I've considered reconciling this issue:
2:28
1. Evaluate the player as-is (Yandy Diaz is a 40, a corner platoon bat or utility man with a good approach but not enough game power to start anywhere he fits on defense, because of his swing path)
2:29
2. Project on the player making mechanical adjustments (Diaz is a 50. Plus raw power, plus plate discipline at third base, he'd fit in with guys like Brian Anderson and Colin Moran who we think are 2-3 WAR guys during their peak)
2:30
3. Project on Diaz's swing changing if he's with an org we feel confident knows how to make these changes (40 or 50 depending on org)
2:31
I think the best way to do it is the first one (which is what we currently do while trying not to let 3 creep into our evals) while writing about the possibility of a change in the report.
But that means you better be quick to update the eval if a player does make a change, which turns discussion to: :How do we know the player has made a change as fast as possible?
2:32
But that's another episode
Mark
2:32
Chris Paddack was a big mover in the updated rankings. Has his stuff returned to where it was pre-injury and it's all a matter of staying healthy, or has he looked even better?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:32
Was 90-94 t97 with a 7 changeup for me in extended and he pounds the strike zone.
Bill
2:32
Any thoughts on Dylan Covey's six starts so far? His velocity is up a couple of ticks and he's been a groundball machine. Seems to have more movement on his 2 seamer this year as well. Can he be a legitimately good pitcher now?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:33
He looks good, thought he was a 40 as a prospect (5th starter or reliever), maybe he's a 45 now?
James
2:33
In the lower minors, what is the approximate ratio of legit prospects to organizational filler? How often does organizational filler succeed?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:35
I don't think the classifications are binary. Let's say, post-draft, an MLB club has 3 rookie-ball rosters. Out of those 75 players, 3-6 of them are probably very good prospects, another 12-18 of them are probably interesting, maybe another handful have one impact tool and little else, the rest are org guys.
Brian
2:37
Where does Weathers fit in the padres top 30 prospects? Is his ceiling a #3? higher? lower?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:38
He was a 45 FV on our draft board, which slots him into that tier on the Padres list: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018prospect&type=0&po...
2:39
And obviously that's getting an update soon, including a spot for Weathers, but you can get a general idea now that he's in the 10-20 range.
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