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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 7/18
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Eric A Longenhagen
Long answer coming, hold tight...
So, think about players' skills as a Venn Diagram. The player you're describing, a High OBP Burner, needs to have a really specific collection of tools/skills. He has to be fast, obviously, but also be enough of a power threat to force pitchers to nibble around the zone while simultaneously possessing th
the pitch recognition and approach to take advantage of it.
It's hard to find that guy, especially when you consider that a player probably has to be pretty big to have threatening power, but that getting bigger probably means cannibalizing your speed.
And if there is a guy, certainly an American prospect, who is capable of retaining speed while also being huge and hitting a ton of bombs, he's probably playing football.
Canes fan here, Jacob Heyward has been great so far in the AZL. Just too advanced for the level or will his tools play better as a pro?
Eric A Longenhagen
Plus bat speed, good athlete, definitely too advanced for the AZL though.
Jeff Hendrix just got promoted to High A. Do you know much about him? What's his bat looking like moving forward?
Eric A Longenhagen
Saw him a lot in college. 7 runner, feel for CF is fine. I believe in the bat speed and admire the opposite field approach but I don't think he'll hit for much power and, while his numbers are good, he's still a college bat from a power conference in Low-A and I want to see more before I anoint him as more than a fourth OF type.
Strictly for a dynasty league, which SS do you like better between G Torres and A Rosario?
Eric A Longenhagen
One L Wil
Renfroe has 25 HR power in the NL West?
Eric A Longenhagen
Has that kind of raw power, yes. Does he hit enough to get to it? Not so sure about that.
Kyle Higashioka (Yankees AA) has looked offensively competent (based on stats I guess) for a while. What's preventing him from being a legit Catching prospect in that system? Lack of defense? Or just a guy tagged as depth?
Eric A Longenhagen
There are aspects of the defense that are inconsistent but he hit for me when I saw him earlier this month and I think he's an interesting sleeper.
What is your favourite team, Eric?
Eric A Longenhagen
When I was really little I liked the Yankees because they had Pat Kelly. Around about '99, I became agnostic and generally disinterested in baseball for like two years before the '01 Dbacks brought me back into the fold. From then on it was the Phillies until '08 when I began working in the game and my fandom just kind of evaporated. I didn't plan for it to go that way, it just did.
One L Wil
Do you think Mazara got figured out and might see a demotion at some point this year?
Eric A Longenhagen
No way I'm demoting him. He needs to adjust to the way MLB pitchers are attacking him now and the only way to do that is to let him fight his way through. Lots of hitters deal with this.
What does Ozzie Albies look like in 3-4 years? Does he have enough of a hit tool to bat .300?
Eric A Longenhagen
Highly-entertaining, fringe regular at 2B. Bear in mind that's in 3-4 years, when he'll only be 22 and not even close to his physical prime. Mid to late 20s? I think he makes some All Star teams.
Philly Pfan
Will Tapia be mocked by his peers with his crouch when he gets to big leagues? Should he keep it, and does it work?
Eric A Longenhagen
I don't think he'll be mocked but I'm not sold that it's a good idea to voluntarily change one's eye level the way Tapia's crouch does.
do you shed a tear everytime a good pitcher gets drafted by Rockies? Knowing they will never be free.... Speaking of, do you think Pomeranz tanked there to get out? just kidding.... kind of.....
Eric A Longenhagen
I think Pomeranz took off when a) he upped the curveball usage and b) when he ditched that changeup in pursuit of his cutter. Never had an arm action that was changeup friendly. Whoever instigated those changes deserves a ton of credit. I've long been down on Pom, considered him a reliever since he was drafted. It came late, but it looks like I was lite.
Rick C
Last week you said you would not give up more for Teheran than a package headlined by Travis Shaw. But given the return for Pomeranz, what do you think is a realistic return for Teheran?
Eric A Longenhagen
Yeah, for those that missed it last week I said that I'd give up a 45 FV prospect for Teheran and that's about it (because I consider Teheran a 50, long term) but considering what the sellers market looks like for pitching, that's probably far too little.
And I think I said Sam Travis, not Shaw.
And the reason I'm down on Teheran is because I see a drop and drive pitcher who has very little hope of ever developing a good breaking ball. I think fastball/changeup pitchers can succeed by relying heavily on those two offerings but that it also limits there ceilings unless they make an adjustment at some point, the way Cole Hamels did when he added his cutter.
Teheran's career FIP has hovered around 4.
Most athletic player in minors?
Eric A Longenhagen
Keep in mind that I think there's a difference between explosiveness (run fast, hit ball far) and athleticism (body control).
Off the top of my head, J.P. Crawford.
Albies is on the short list, too.
Rick C
You don't think Teheran has a good breaking ball? His curve ranks 10th in value, and his slider 13th. And on a per 100 pitches rate, they are respectively ranked 4th and 15th.
Eric A Longenhagen
Grading pitches via traditional scouting looks at the pitch in a vacuum. Results-based analysis of pitch value is rife with context-dependent noise.
It's not altogether invalid, but it's imperfect.
Is this the year Ronald Guzman puts it together?
Eric A Longenhagen
Guys with levers that long typically have to make little adjustments throughout their entire careers, but he does look really good right now. The body has matured in a good way and he's gotten comfortable using his lower half.
Is it rare for a drop and drive pitcher to spin a good breaking ball?