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Dave Nadig
3:19
We've had two restaurant ETFs, but really all that's standing are two broad food and beverage ETFs: PBJ and FTXG
HotDoggity
3:18
There are so many niches in ETFs now; are there any foodie ETFs?
Dave Nadig
3:18
So any bet on gold at a particular price is a bet on "people are going to get more nervous before they get less nervous."
Gold is just a psychological commodity, so there's no "reason" for it to really go up or down other than "people are nervous so they're buying" or "people are liquidating for other opportunities"
3:17
I am personally pretty bullish on Emerging Markets from a fundamentals perspective, relative to U.S. equities, but I don't really make market calls.
3:16
Well, almost all asset classes do display some level of cyclicality, for sure . Some of that is just following the business cycle, some of it may be what a tech would call just oscillation from overbought to oversold and back again.
Chad
3:15
Seems like asset classes go through random cycles in terms of being favorable. Are emerging markets and gold making comebacks?
Dave Nadig
The motivators to be longer are many -- just the SEC's inevitable caution.
3:15
That's a pretty wide swath.  I think it's hardly imminent, but I would put the over/under bet in the next year or two -- maybe 18 months.
3:14
Well, who am I to challenge Hester Peirce and her comment that a bitcoin could be any day, or 20 years from now!
Martha Tyndale
3:14
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce recently (delightfully) said she is "not as charming as other people" re trying to convince her colleagues to approve a bitcoin ETF. When do you imagine this inevitable vehicle will finally be approved?
Dave Nadig
But ultimately, the line between self-indexed and active is very small in my opinion.
3:14
If its multi-market, or in a complex asset class, maybe be a bit skeptical.
if its JUST to save a few basis points, well, how complex is the strategy?  If its really simple, it may be fine.
So when an issuer takes an index in house, the question to ask is "why"
3:13
Sometimes its in intellectual property, like with a factor methodology.  Sometimes it's just having a really good international corporate actions team.
I do think that the big index firms: MSCI S&P FTSE Bloomberg, Solactive, etc. --- have real value ad.
3:12
I'm generally not to worried about "self indexing" any more than I'm worried about active management.
Bill Donahue
3:12
Hi Dave... The SEC examiners are currently performing a sweep of ETF shops which have self indexed ETFs (there's a lot of them).  The inherent conflicts of interest and model risk are probably two areas of focus... Anything else concern you about self indexed ETFs?
Dave Nadig
3:12
Nominations are open through the end of the year.
And by all means, if you're an ETF watcher, we'd love your thoughts.  You don't have to nominate in every category -- you can just nominate on the ones you have a real opinion about.
3:11
EASY one.  Here's the link!
Anonymous
3:11
When can we start nominating issuers for the yearly ETF Awards?
Dave Nadig
But as investors, it's on us to keep folks accountable -- mostly by ignoring them.
So what you tend to see are the +/- 50% predictions, which are RARELY right, in either direction.
3:10
Vanguard, for instance, just published their 2019 guidance, and it's pretty ... boring.  It calls for modest market uptick, with a lot of caution.  That doesn't make for good headlines.
You are correct that majority of predictions are wrong, and that's not that surprising.  It's also true that the most dire or aggressive predictions tend to make the most headlines.
Well, the "accounting" is all of our collective memory.
3:09
Hi jen,
Jen F.
3:08
It seems like finance "gurus" are always making market predictions. I'm guessing more of those don't come true than do. Is there ever any type of "accounting," so to speak, on those?
Dave Nadig
Here's a piece on why from our education sectoin:
3:08
But over more than a day, your returns will deviate -- perhaps substantially - from the naive "2X" or "-3X" it says on the label.
As day-trading vehicles, have at it - if you think you can win as a day trader (which, mathematically, the average person wont).
3:07
More than ANY corner of the ETF universe, you REALLY need to understand both the math, and how your funds will perform over time.
It will do what it's designed to do, very well, and very aggressively, and if you're not careful, it will also cut off your finger before you even realize it.
So, in general, you should consider Levered or Inverse ETFs to be that scary ceramic knife you have carefully protected in your knife drawer.
3:06
Hoooh boy.
Guest
3:05
Seems like now's a perfect time to use inverse ETFs. Any tips or caveats you'd suggest?
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