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FanGraphs 2020 Top 100 Prospects Chat
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Mike
2:01
Was a little surprised to see Andres Gimenez's % chance of being a bust around 50%. I would have thought that a plus defender at short and a plus (and maybe plus plus) runner would've given him a higher floor. What do you think?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:02
That's the empirical baseline for a hitter in that FV tier, I didn't touch his graph. Maybe I should have now that you mention it, he's a lower variance guy for me
Alan
2:02
I was surprised not to see Knizner named. Is he no longer a prospect, or just didn't make the cut?
Eric A Longenhagen
Matt Festa at a bus stop
2:02
How far away from top 100 is a player like Cal Raleigh.  I take it you must not be sold on defense or bat?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:02
another pick to click catcher
Frank
2:02
How close was Kody Hoese?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:02
I'm not on him
2:03
to be fair, he was hurt when I saw him in AZ
Just curious
2:03
One must obey The Board God!
Eric A Longenhagen
2:03
The Board must flow
Reid
2:03
One quick thing - Isaac Paredes is listed as having 55 pitch selection and 70 bat control with a 60 hit tool, but Wander has 60 pitch selection and 70 bat control with an 80 future hit tool. Are the bat control/pitch selection grades present grades?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:04
good question. power on contact matters, too. Grading the hit tool is complex because so many other components impact it. it's why i've taken a reductionist approach with the bat control and pitch selection grades. There's a huge chunk of a chapter about it in the book
Ollie
2:05
How much harder has your life been now that Kiley has left? I can't imagine doing all this work on your own. You're doing amazing work.
Eric A Longenhagen
2:06
Kiley and I would have spent something like 18 hours on the phone together this week, so I miss that.
Maximum Acostage
2:06
How did Ronny Henriquez compare to Yerry Rodriguez in your evaluations?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:08
He was in the mix, too. Has more raw velo but it wasn't playing as well as Yerry's heater.
Nico
2:08
Looking at the breakdowns of the hit tools on THE BOARD it seems bat control is more important than pitch selection. Is this so?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:09
an interesting observation. I don't know yet. my attempt to grade those pieces is still new and like anything else i do here, will be subject to reevaluation.
Brad
2:09
Who are the prospect writers involved for friday
Eric A Longenhagen
2:09
Paul and Shelly
SalisburySteak
2:09
I'm a bit surprised you have Bubic on the list but not Kowar. What gives? Are you skeptical that Kowar ever develops a breaker?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:10
correct on Kowar's breaker, and while he throws hard it's a sinker that I think will miss fewer bats than the raw velo suggests
Big Fan
2:10
What goes into tweaking one's fastball the way Kyle Wright needs to?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:13
it can be a few different things, based on what I know. You can alter hand position. So, if you watch Josh Hader and bunch of Houston arms you can see their wrist cocked more north/south than their arm slot. That creates mroe backspin. Stride direction is another one. Guys whose landing leg swings way out past the direct line to the plate often have spinal tilt that creates a more vertical slot. Chris Devenski, Ubaldo Jimenez, Mike Wacha are coming to mind.
But making these changes comes with risk of screwing a guy up, too
2:15
Okay, i've gotta run. Thanks to the many hundreds of you who chatted today. Please peruse all the prospect content via the prospect home page, which you can access via the dashboard at the top of the site. Also please consider pre-ordering my book, Future Value, here:
Peace
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