JotCast | FanGraphs 2021 Top 100 Chat

FanGraphs 2021 Top 100 Chat

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12:39

About where would Kumar Rocker fall in the Top 100 if he were eligible?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:40

I'd have Rocker and Jack Leiter pretty close to where Hancock is. Matt McLain somewhere between Ozzie Peraza and Geraldo Perdomo.

If the two Vandy arms come out and shove then they'd move toward Lacy/Meyer for reasons I hope are obvious

Matt

12:41

I recently read a report that MacKenzie Gore "didn't look sharp at the alternate site" in 2020. Do you know anything about this? And if so, do you think it will impact his development or are you confident he will bounce back since you have him at #2?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:43

Yes, I wrote about it in his blurb. I'm excusing it as a weird hiccup rather than a long term concern, which might be wrong. But if I had to pick a prospect who I think has the best chance of carrying a 200+ inning load, it's still that guy.

Pete

12:43

What are examples of guys with long levers and short levers in the majors? What tool best defines approach? How great do Jazz Chisolm and Drew Waters have to be to overcome terrible pitch selection?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:45

Two extreme examples on the lever thing: Jose Ramirez and Aaron Judge. Two less extreme examples: Keston Hiura, Nick Castellanos

12:46

on the approach stuff: You have to be Javy Baez, Luis Robert, or Adalberto Mondesi type of talent to overcome a approach that bad and still be a star type big leaguer, and even then you're year-to-year performance is volatile.

12:47

tools: I'll point you to The Board's position player tab where I have pitch selection and bat control graded: 2021 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

Burt Macklin

12:47

General question: What is your process weighing out a rank between a high risk high upside prospect and a lower ceiling but higher floor one?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:51

There are some players where the upside is so incredibly high that I'd just take that player even if I were less confident that they're going to reach their ceiling. The prospects toward the back of the 55 FV tier are several of those guys. Once you start saying, "which of these two guys does my team want?" and the answer depends on if your team is rebuilding or competing, or team needs, then there's a lot of room for arguament about how to rank them, but those guys are typically in the same FV tier

Ryan

12:51

How close was Chris Rodriguez to making this list? Was he excluded due to his health history or do you simply like other players more than him?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:52

He has stuff on par with the relief types toward the back of the list but yeah, the injuries have to factor in

Brandon

12:52

Any names outside of the top 25 that you could see being top 10 prospects next year?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:54

Any of the 20y/o outfielders ranked close to 40th overall, Dominguez, then maybe Jordyn Adams or one of the teenage SS closer to 80th overall if they really explode.

Matt

12:55

Can you talk about your Number 100 and 101 Prospects, Tahnaj Thomas and Hunter Greene? You seem higher than consensus on the former and lower on the latter.

Eric A Longenhagen

12:57

They've been right next to eachother two years in a row. Both have perfect pitchers' builds, elite arm strength and athleticism, both were recently infielders, both lack an impact breaking ball and need significant secondary pitch refinement. Greene has had a TJ, Tahnaj has not. I don't see how the two can be far apart on a list.

just because one has been famous for a while?

Old Prospector

12:58

What are your general thoughts on the moves Ben Cherington has made and the trade return he has gotten in his trades since becoming the Pittsburgh GM?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:59

Thought the Musgrove return was light, Taillon return was great, loved what they did in the Rule 5, like that they've been active in Australia and Asia recently

Evan

1:00

Your Priester write-up says it all, wondering if there's any greater injury risk than typical with him?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:01

Nah. Not saying there's no risk (go look at last year's list and look at literally every pitcher in the top 50) but not more than usual

Drew

1:01

Hey Eric, Amazing as always. Thoughts on Ryan Weathers. Given his uptick in velocity, was he close to the list? Much appreciated.

Eric A Longenhagen

1:01

Scared of the body and that the velo has been up and down and up again over the last few years. Love how consistently he executes that slider, though.

Vern

1:02

Which prospects on the list got the most pushback from other sources, but you just stuck to your own eval and kept them on there?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:02

Vidal Brujan

1:03

There was some Xavier Edwards pushback, Jazz/Garcia duo, there was support for TMac to be higher but the way his velo trended in 2020 scared me

Old Prospector

1:04

Do you still believe in Francisco Mejia as an everyday player in the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:04

Fayyaz

1:04

Given the choice right now, would you rather have Juan Soto or Wander Franco for six years (i.e. ignoring that Soto has two years on the clock already)? I feel like we forget that Soto debuted at a younger age than Franco is now/will debut

Eric A Longenhagen

1:05

man, that's tough. I don't have a confident off-hand answer for you.

Swinging Friar

1:05

MacKenzie Gore's profile confuses me. He seems to lack a true out pitch (highest pitch grade is a 60) and the sum seems to be way more than the individual parts. It seems like for him to get close to his ceiling, his deceptive delivery must work on MLB batters and Gore has to have exceptional command. Is that right? Seems risky...

Eric A Longenhagen

1:07

Right, and then you have to ask "what about a pitcher tells me he's going to have exceptional command, etc.?" and I think that's a) athleticism and b) the ability/willingness to make adjustments, and I think Gore has both.

NotGraphs Revivalist

1:07

Hey Eric, awesome work! Curious to hear your eval on the Braves catchers (specifically Contreras and Langeliers) since they didn’t make the top 133. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen

1:10

Lanegliers will be a Pick to Click (more KG than me). He had some support I just doubt offensive impact still. As I shopped the list around I had like 60 hard-ranked guys and then a bunch of buckets of similar types of players (ready made 4th starters, high upside/risk up-the-middle guys, etc.) and one of them was a big group of catchers. As I'm on the phone with scouts and execs I'm asking them to rank the players in those buckets, and on Amaya, Contreras and Rafael Marchan I got consistent "move that guy down" feedback until eventually they all fell off

Mitchell

1:10

Any under the radar SP prospects you like, similar to Tahnaj Thomas?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:12

Always have trouble with the "under the radar" questions because my radar is 2,000 players. Uh....several Dbacks arms? Bailey Falter?

Bubba

1:12

Where would Andres Gimenez fit on this list if he were still eligible?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:12

Among those contact-oriented shortstops toward the top of the 50 FV tier.