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FanGraphs 2021 Top 100 Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
1:36
yes
bosoxforlife
1:37
The talk of Red Sox alternate site was Jarren Duran. Do you see him differently than before last summer?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:37
A little bit. I'd have been more likely to think his swing change will have real impact had he hit for any sort of power in Puerto Rico. Think he's a big league role player sort but not and true everyday guy
JoeD
1:37
Luis Patino's probability of FV outcomes is incredible. Same chance he never figures it out, becomes a top 15 SP or anything in between. Oneil Cruz's really worried me, 60% chance he is a bust but same chance (10%) he is a 70+ or 40/45
Eric A Longenhagen
1:39
Right, I don't want the %s on the distro outcomes to give a false sense of precision. There is an empirically-derived baseline applied to each hitter in a given FV tier but KG and I manually adjusted them for each prospect, and I'm fine with putting my thumb on the scale for some of them to better illustrate players like Oneil
Grant
1:39
So the Nationals' system is um... bad?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:40
Yes, it's bad. I'm pretty sure I'd take Vanderbilt's roster and commits before Washington's system. But hey, while other teams are more and more focusing on depth, they've been good at picking the right guys. They just always find a way to piece it together.
oregonian
1:41
Was surprised neither Sabato or Busch made the list. Can you talk a little bit about those two?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:42
Busch is on there
Sabato's full report is on the Twins list
James
1:42
Favorite players outside the top 133 that could rise quickly to inside it this time next year?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:42
look for the Picks to Click article later this week
Marshall
1:43
Hi Eric, you mentioned that Arozarena transformed due to doing a lot of pushups while in quarantine, and I'd heard that narrative elsewhere too. Is it really possible for pushups to make that much difference?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:43
The dude is yoked now and is hitting the ball way, way harder in a measurable way. So, yeah.
Robert
1:44
Are they are any plans to do more live streams either by yourself or with KG? I’ve found those to be really helpful and informative, especially with the visual points you’ve been able to dive into
Eric A Longenhagen
1:44
yes, maybe tomorrow
Old timer
1:45
Can we fairly say the A's system is really bad in part because of their top 10 selections of Kyler Murray and Austin Beck?  Or is this more after the fact analysis?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:45
Some of it is because Luzardo and Murphy just graduated. this is part of the problem with farm system rankings.
1:46
those are young stars, they're just not rookie eligibile anymore
Okra
1:46
Are you a believer in Zac Gallen now?  What FV would you put on him?  Thanks
Eric A Longenhagen
1:46
hell yes, like a 60
Okra
1:48
Got a biology question for you.  Some people have a longer index finger than ring finger.  Is this common for pitchers?  Does it lead to better spin or rise?  Thanks
Eric A Longenhagen
1:49
huh, that's interesting, I have no idea. Just looking at my hands now my ring finger is quite a bit longer than my index finger. Never noticed that before. I can command the shit out of a wiffle ball. Hope that helps.
Greg
1:50
Have you ever considered making FV a range? Especially for guys that are a long way from the bigs, placing their FV as a range could give an indication of how high you feel their respective cielings and floors should be.
Eric A Longenhagen
1:51
yeah, Kiley and I talked about that and I think he's working on something like that for what he's got going on at ESPN. I think "Variance" expresses this concept enough to just keep using that.  Dan Farnsworth tried to do what you're talking about many years ago and I think it was a little confusing to some readers.
Jim
1:52
Great job Eric! I realize this is a top 100 chat, but wanted to hear your thoughts on the projected #1 2022 pick Elijah Green. Is he in the top tier of #1 picks in the past decade?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:54
Too early for anything like that, but as I was updating the draft lists (2021 thru 2023 are on The Board) a director volunteered that he thought he was incredible. I think Green being at IMG means he'll be seen a lot more than is typical for an underclass, since scouts are in to see 2021s.
blah
1:54
What are the odds in the next 3-5 years we get a braindrain from pro scouting/analytics departments into D1 scouting/analytics departments, like how D1 coaches can make way more than pro coaches?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:54
It's possible for a number of reasons, but Im not sure how the downtick in football revenue impacts the $ spent on the baseball side. Probably varies program to program.
Swinging Friar
1:55
Grades and rankings aside, who do you just love as a prospect and why?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:57
oh man, so many. Part of why i write up so many guys on the team lists is because I just love watching players. I dig the glove/arm/power catchers who might not hit, MJ Melendez and Drew Romo.
Mucho
1:58
What odds would you put on Celesten signing with the M’s considering a pending International draft and the possibility of poaching you mentioned yesterday?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:58
I've had folks tell me they think, if a draft were instituted, the teams would just take the players they already have deals with.
Mucho
1:59
Is this the best class for HS shortstops you’ve seen? How would it stack up against 2019?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:00
Tough one because, due to COVID and its many impacts, I saw barely any HS action all summer. It's a hell of a group, though. You might be right, it's so, so good.
Nate W
2:00
I've noticed that the number of "top 100" guys keeps increasing. Is this a result of the quality of minor leaguers increasing or in your evaluation of what it means to be 50FV+?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:01
A large part of it is because what I think it will soon mean to be a 50 FV pitcher is changing and becoming broader.
Matt
2:02
Who makes the majors first between Franco, Brujan and Walls?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:02
If Adames got hurt or traded tomorrow I bet they'd promote Walls
Mike
2:02
Young catchers are notoriously risky. When the success rate is so low what sets certain ones apart from others? Is it just a track record or performance or more just projection and a roll of the dice?
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