JotCast | FanGraphs 2022 Opening Day Chat | 4/7/2022

FanGraphs 2022 Opening Day Chat

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Jay Jaffe

2:10

HAPPY OPENING DAY! And welcome to FanGraphs' Opening Day chat

2:11

Thrilled to be here, particularly in light of how bleak things looked regarding the start of the season just a few weeks ago. We've all made it through a very tough winter

2:12

We're gonna be clickety-clacking along this afternoon, starting with the Brewers-Cubs game. In the meantime, I'd like to pass along a quick message from Meg:

earnest tweet alert: It pales in comparison to (gestures at everything) but the last two years have been a pretty stressful time to be in the baseball website biz, so as we celebrate another Opening Day, thanks for sticking with @fangraphs. It has made all the difference 🥰

Harry Jerry

2:12

Just a note to say thanks for all the great content you all provide. Really kept up quality work even through a pandemic and then a lockout. You all are the best and I especially wanna say make Meg Rowley EIC For Life.

Jay Jaffe

2:13

Thank you for following along!

Wireless Joe Jackson

2:13

38 degrees, windy, and a rain/snow mix in Minneapolis today. Why did they schedule the game there instead of Seattle where there's a roof?

Jay Jaffe

2:14

Remember, this wasn't supposed to be Opening Day when the schedules were originally drawn up, this was supposed to be the second week of the season, but the lockout jumbled things. There simply aren't enough warm-weather or roofed parks to keep everybody from having to deal with the weather, alas

Guest

2:15

Ke'Bryan Hayes. Talk to me about it. I'm a shocked Pirates fan and don't know what to do with my hands.

Jay Jaffe

2:17

Please keep your hands inside the bullpen cart! I'll be covering Hayes' 8/$70M deal for tomorrow, but even based on the ZiPS forecast from Dan, this looks like a slight discount relative to his performance

Colin

2:18

If there can be only one “day” then it is Day 1 at the Masters and not MLB Opening Day, tbf.

Jay Jaffe

2:19

You have wandered into the wrong chat, sir. It is Opening Day, and there is no golf going on here.

Rob Gurley

2:20

What do you think will be the biggest impact of shortened spring training on key pitching statistics? Will all players be affected equally, or are some pitchers more sensitive to shortened spring training because of their particular pitches?

Jay Jaffe

2:21

Based on what we saw in 2020, innings per start will be down early, as will velocities, and injuries will be up. We saw slight rises in BB% and HBP% that year, but it's less clear that was attributable to the shortened spring training.

2:23

anyway, today's first matchup pits the Brewers and Cubs and my Roku is already behind by following the Cubs feed, had to switch over to the Brewers feed. Kyle Hendricks vs. NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes

Jeff

2:25

As a Cubs fan, seeing Heyward starting another Opening Day is truly depressing.

Jay Jaffe

2:27

That contract has not paid off, except perhaps for the intangible value of the pep talk during the brief rain delay in Game 7 of the 2016. Knowing what you know, would you rather the Ricketts family kept the money?

Matt

2:27

Over/under 60 wins for my Orioles?

Jay Jaffe

2:28

Joan Jett is taking the over, WAAAAY over, in this fun piece. https://www.spin.com/2022/04/musicians-predict-2022-baseball-season/

Dan Szymborski

2:29

Hello!

Sorry, a little late. I forgot I was in VPN and jotcast was suspcious

Blue-Collar Tweeker

2:30

Saw an interview with Acuña today where he said he wont miss Freeman because of basically disrespecting behavior. Think that had anything to do with the Braves not making more of an attempt to keep him around or is this typical stuff that teams deal with?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

I really don't know, but that would be interesting (and depressing) if it were the case. This tweet from Andy Martino really resonated — it's very tough to get a handle on matters like this from the outside. And wow does the game need more diversity among its reporters and broadcasters.

It's not necessary to know anything about the Freeman/Acuna dynamic -- which I don't -- to appreciate it as an example of how little we in the white/English speaking/American media and fan base understand about the racial and cultural dynamics that are felt deeply in the game.

You're my Wander-Walls

2:30

Hey Fangraphs crew! Just wanted to say thank you for all the content you provide. Not able to financially support the site with a membership right now, but hopefully once a few job prospects come through I'll be able to re-up! Hope other folks do the same :)

Eno Sarris' Sandwhich Induced Nightmares

2:30

Can we keep a running poll of best chat monikers? I put a lot of hard work into thinking up these names!

Guest

2:30

Where's Dan I just wanna talk about the AL East projections

Dan Szymborski

2:30

Dan's here now! What about them?

Stott Bryson Stott

2:33

AL East winner. 10,000 simulations and they end up tied? Was there a simulation that had the O's win one?

Dan Szymborski

2:33

Blue Jays won the most

Pitch_Out

2:33

Seems to be a huge disparity between the #s in the positional power rankings that have the Yankees rotation as the best in baseball and Yankees fans' perception that the FO should have upgraded the rotation. Is this a function of having Gerrit Cole and then a bunch of question marks or of fans having outsized expectations for how the team operates?

Jay Jaffe

2:34

I'd say it's a little from Column A, and a little from Column B. Cole is at the top of our SP rankings, IIRC, while Taillon and Severino project to pitch well but have missed a lot of time in recent years, which is unsettling from a fan perspective and last year didn't actually work out very well for the Yankees given the number of risks they took (Kluber included)

Dan Szymborski

2:33

I think I got like three 4-ways.

Remember, that's the median projection for everyone

it's unlikely that they actually WILL have a favor way tie

2:34

just that they have the same zips over/under

bosoxforlife

2:34

Taylor Rogers for Chris Paddock is an interesting trade. A good reliever, who was injured, for a starter who has not been good since 2019. I will take the Padres side in this deal.

Guest

2:34

Acuna/Freeman might be related to this: https://www.bardown.com/freddie-freeman-calls-out-teammate-acuna-after...

Dan Szymborski

2:34

I think too much is being made of this on social media

2:35

Someone can be a good leader AND have some lapses with rub people the wrong way

Jay Jaffe

2:35

Nuance is often lost in translation

mike sixel

2:37

I love this site. Thank you.

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