JotCast | FanGraphs 2023 Opening Day Chat

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2:55

Injuries on opening day have me once again appreciating how ZIPS seems to account for depth pretty well. Feels like a lot of projection systems underestimate the important of having a couple cromulent starters in reserve.

Dan Szymborski

2:55

It's very hard to do the ZiPS methodology daily

Davy Andrews

2:56

Elias saying that they expected Grayson to make the roster, but the other starters were sharper.

Davy Andrews

2:56

I do not understand why he's been talking about it this way.

Alex Eisert

2:57

It's so clearly service time manipulation

Dan Szymborski

2:56

ESPN was always surprisingly nice at my sprinkling in of my weird preferred words. Cromulent, pwned, cemused.

Darth Vader-A Cubs Fan

2:56

I've skipped work for the last 15 years on opening day. Don't tell my boss

Davy Andrews

2:57

The Emperor?!

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

2:57

I tell you what's NOT sharp is Elias' lying ability

Hildebeast

2:57

Daulton Varsho batting clean-up for the Jays according to baseballpress lineups
If true, is that wise?

Alex Eisert

2:57

Looks like Kirk to me? If they hit Varsho cleanup though, I'd allow it for the purpose of mixing up their lefties/righties

marginal utility player

2:57

Would there be any value in a stat like Fielding Independent Hitting? Basically a hitting stat based only on HR, BB + HBP, and K

Alex Eisert

2:58

I think xWOBA does the best job of that.

Dan Szymborski

2:57

Because of the CBA, there's this thing called a Baseball Lie that nobody believes, nobody believes anybody believes, but everyone plays pretend because you can only get in trouble if you actually say the thing

Derek

2:57

I'm increasingly convinced that Joey Meneses is just good. What a wild developmental story.

Dan Szymborski

2:58

If he has an arbitration fight with the Nats in a few years, I get dibs on the article title The Battle of First Meneses

Davy Andrews

2:59

I was so bummed that Baumann didn't say the Phillies had a stars and Stubbs roster in the Positional Power Rankings.

Boids

2:58

how are people replying to others posts?

Dan Szymborski

2:59

We're able to

Orioles2024

2:59

Its not service time manipulation. GRod couldn't get through lineups a second time. He didn't earn it, but telling a kid he sucked without telling him he sucked isn't wise.

Dan Szymborski

2:59

I'd rather he take his lumps in the majors.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

2:59

Braves are somehow on their 3rd pitcher in the fifth inning

I think Fielding Independent Hitting doesn't exist hitters have much more control over their BABIP than pitchers?

Dan Szymborski

2:59

Much more, but it's still volatile and regression is heavy

Alex Eisert

2:59

Same. Even if Grayson has some sharpening to do it'd make more sense to do it in the majors

Dan Szymborski

2:59

Just not near the degree it is with pitchers

Greg

2:59

Is today the busiest day of the year for the MLB Transactions page? Every rostered player who was wearing a number like a post-millennial hockey star on his back all spring finally gets to switch.

Orioles2024

3:00

Agree....think his language is overly harsh for a young kid. Unless he thinks that's gonna motivate him.

Davy Andrews

3:00

This is sort of where I am. There are much gentler ways to peddle this particular notion.

Alex Eisert

3:01

My friend, a former college player, said that motivating through belief in a player is better than doubting them.

A Boy Named Yu

3:00

My MLB The Show is old enough it still has the DH in the NL. I've been playing a lot lately getting excited for the season and then watching this game today was very confused when the pitcher didn't come up aftet Turang to bat.

Dan Szymborski

3:00

Grayson frigging dominated AAA in a huge offensive season when he was back. It's too easy for him for him to get practical experience taking those lumps

Alex Eisert

3:01

Definitely. And even an unrefined version of him would probably be the O's best starter this year

Nat

3:00

Ohtani striking out Trout on the Baseball Zen

Davy Andrews

3:01

I look forward to seeing that!

Dan Szymborski

3:02

Grayson isn't going to learn to play in the majors by mowing down Bryan Lavastida and Roman Quinn

Greg

3:02

Dan is talking like someone who doesn't own Tyler Wells in Sim League. Oh wait a minute, that is the normal perspective...

B'ryce Szymbobski

3:02

G.Rod in the minors makes sense from an innings limit perspective though... especially if you're trying to spike this season into a wild card birth

Dan Szymborski

3:02

He's not replacing any good starters!

Alex Eisert

3:02

Wells isn't bad by Stuff+

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