You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
FanGraphs 2024 Opening Day Chat
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
Ben Clemens
9:07
not that it's the end all be all, but I really do think he's a good defender
Binger
9:07
Rangers have o/u 2.5 future HOF on their roster (including injured Mad Max and Degrom)?
Kyle Kishimoto
9:08
oh this is a good one, scherzer is a lock, then you have to bet on two of degrom semien seager or even like langford carter or heim making it
Black and Orange
9:09
when you're already ahead 8-2, why pinch hit and remove a good defender?
Ben Clemens
9:09
Yeah fair
I would take over, btw, I think it's close but that two of those guys can do it
J
9:10
Merryweather may not have looked super sharp, but this difference between Counsell and Ross is Ross never puts Merryweather in that high leverage spot.
Ben Clemens
9:10
Counsell is a great manager
2 Dads Playing Catch
9:10
he said jonah heim
Kyle Kishimoto
9:12
extreme long shot, not saying it's remotely likely but if catcher careers continue to get shorter and there are no outliers from this generation he could end up among the better ones of this decade
5 Run Homer
9:11
If Steele is out long-term, do the Cubs just bite the bullet and call up Cade Horton right away?
AvatarDavid Laurila
9:11
Or maybe Ben Brown.
Saladpans
9:13
I recall Ben and Meg discussing the win probability showing on ESPN scorebugs now, but does anyone know how they're calculating it?
Ben Clemens
9:13
No, and their description didn't inspire confidence
Kyle Kishimoto
9:13
oh yikes what was their description?
Ben Clemens
9:13
they use historical data, as well as things like the size of the ballpark
Kyle Kishimoto
9:14
yikes
Morlock Jimenez
9:15
Historical data?! Like the Hawley-Smoot Tariff?
J
9:15
It would definitely be Brown or maybe sadly just Smyly. Horton wasn’t in major league spring training and is definitely not up to speed.
RTJ
9:15
It's also possible that the announcers specializing in talking about balls and strikes are not the same ones who created the formula, and are therefore ill equipped to explain it? Maybe?
Ben Clemens
9:15
Oh 100%
I don't think I can talk about our odds very well, and theoretically I should be able to. Certainly not if you put me on the spot
Binger
9:16
It was the Angels, but I wouldn't bet against Corbin Burnes having a career walk year. After Snell and Montgomery debacles, will teams go 7-9 years at $30m+ for him? If not, then for whom???
Ben Clemens
9:17
I don't think Burnes is comparable to Snell, and DEFINITELY not to Montgomery
I think he's gonna get a bag
Sad Angels Fan
9:17
I prefer to use future data when making my predictions
Ben Clemens
9:18
There are a lot of versions of this story, but mine: an intern of mine when I worked at a bank came to me with a trading strategy he'd backtested that was just phenomenally effective, wildly so. After a bit of digging it turned out that the way we stored the data, one line of it included whether the next tick was up or down, so you could use the future to predict the future in the backtest. Whoops!
Saladpans
9:19
Predictions should solely be based on vibes, Castellanos for NL MVP.
Ben Clemens
9:19
Mike Petriello shoutout (as Michael Petriello)!
RTJ
9:20
Just to say - i really enjoy these live game-time chats on FG. Hope to have these throughout the year on some irregular basis!
Ben Clemens
9:21
wow that was a very certain celebration for a homer that didn't get out by that much. love it
Mike
9:21
I have no idea what you meant when you said use the future to predict the future
Ben Clemens
9:22
basically it's easier to predict if a price will go up if you already know whether the next price was higher or lower
KC Pain
9:21
BOOM ADOLIS
5 Run Homer
9:22
I just made a very loud, involuntary noise when Adolis hit that
Ben Clemens
9:22
yeah to be fair I also thought that was out by six miles
must have had some wild topspin
AvatarDavid Laurila
9:22
A well-struck baseball.
Binger
9:23
1/3000!
5 Run Homer
9:23
Turns out this Langford kid is really fast, too
Connecting…