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FanGraphs 2025 Day One Draft Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
5:56
Hello one and all from Battery Avenue in Marieta for our live draft chat.
5:57
Meg and I walked from the hotel here and both were sweating profusely. I told her that her hair looks fine.
My mock just went up. It sounds like Washington is still negotiating, however.
In case you missed it, my final rankings are live:
Here is the mock
5:59
I'll be analyzing picks and players all night, perhaps Woj'ing (who can say) and trying to have good posture in the event I'm on camera
6:00
Let's take your questions while my ears are blown off by this in-studio drum line
George
6:00
Hey Eric! I know this lead up can be very difficult, just want to reiterate I definitely consider the quality of your work worth waiting for and worth the fangraphs subscription.

I am a Nats fan and I've been looking at who they might be able to float to 49. I know people have mentioned Landon Harmon, but do you think one of the high school hitters in the 45 tier might get there? mostly Kilby and Neyens.
Eric A Longenhagen
6:01
Your guess is as good as mine. That's so deep that I'd imagine it's tough to float a specific guy unless you're going to pay him 3.5 mil or more. There are too many potential landmine teams in between with money to take your guy.
CB
6:01
Where do your scoops come from? Teams, agents, other?
Eric A Longenhagen
6:02
Yes and yes. Word of mouth, sometimes just seeing who's at the field with you at key times of year. Not the best year for draft dope, certainly not for me, at least.
Sean
6:02
Shoutout to you and the editors for all the hard work this week(end).
Eric A Longenhagen
6:02
Gracias, Meg edited dozens of draft blurbs in between puking in her hotel room yesterday. She's a gamer.
MarinersFan
6:03
Is the smoke about Hernandez to the Mariners real? Not generally a fan of taking HS pitchers early but I suppose the Mariners are a pretty good landing spot if you're gonna do it.
Eric A Longenhagen
6:03
Think they have a mix that includes Arquette, him, and the option to cut deep with someone like Bremner. I just put Ethan there in the mock because, well, you can read why
sadtrombone
6:04
Let’s talk Holliday. I was super convinced by your data on the summer circuit where he didn’t hit for power and had abysmal contact rates. I remember you said on a podcast somewhere that there wasn’t going to be another shot for him to change your mind, and it still seems like you think he’s not going to hit. But you changed your assessment anyway, so clearly you learned something new. What was it? Or did the Holliday mafia get to you?
Eric A Longenhagen
6:04
Rule #1: Bet on Freaks. There really aren't many in this draft. He's no riskier than Alfredo Duno, and if you can adjust the way his hands work so that he's pulling the ball, he's a 30-040 homer guy.
Ben Schneider
6:04
Hi Eric, thanks again for all your hard work. What are similar or different about Arnold's fastball regression compared to Sasaki? Will it be that as of an issue for Arnold as it has been for Sasaki?
Mike
6:05
No question. Just a big thank you for all your hard work. This is one of favorite places on the Internet.
Eric A Longenhagen
6:05
Hey, thank you guys. It feels good to be done with all 30 lists and the draft reports.
Arnold's issues were more about strikes and less about the shape or velo of his fastball regressing.
6:07
Have one source indeed saying Willits 1.1, will let y'all know if I get s second.
Tim
6:07
Is there any potential impact at 1B in this draft? My dynasty team is desperate for a re-set at the position.
Eric A Longenhagen
6:10
I thnk Andrew Fischer might end up at first base, I like Jack Gurevitch from San Diego. So many impact first basemen are guys who trend down from other positions.
Dude, there are so many ex big leaguers in this room right now
Syd Thrift
6:10
Hey Eric! Thanks for chat! Orioles have a large bonus pool, but not a top selection. How would you play it if you were Elias?
Eric A Longenhagen
6:11
Like the Westburg draft
stay open, take the best dudes, don't lock into a strategy
Ken
6:11
Why does it seem like Kyson Witherspoon is falling in the latest mock drafts?
Eric A Longenhagen
6:13
I'm not sure, I think the way the dope flows often attaches players with negotiating power to teams first and then the college guys go when the team sees them as being good value. That's Kyson. No need to call his agent, just take him if he's the top guy on your board
6:14
Hearing from multiple sources that Ike Irish will be the pick at 2
Joseph
6:14
So that's a shock first overall pick, right?
Eric A Longenhagen
6:14
Nah, not really
If you think everyone up top is close to the same talent, take the guy who'll take the smallest bonus so you can have a deeper class.
Guest
6:14
How big of a cut do you expect Willits to take?
Eric A Longenhagen
6:15
I'd guess something just above slot at 5
Chris
6:15
First and second picks going way under slot?
Eric A Longenhagen
6:15
Yes
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