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FanGraphs 2026 Top 100 Prospects Chat
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Eric A Longenhagen
2:06
Think the upside/risk pieces are comparable to Duno, Walcott better proximity than him. Benge feels safer, even more proximate than Walcott pre-injury.
Jeff
2:07
What is more important to you when evaluating prospects, how high their ceiling is or the probability of them hitting their ceiling/floor?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:07
Depends on the player.
To rank on a top 100, you need to have at least a 2-3 win ceiling, which most minor leaguers don't have.
Mets Fan
2:08
Is Kyle Tucker a fair comparison for the best-case scenario of Carson Benge (above average at everything, not truly standout in any one tool) or is that being too optimistic?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:08
Not moved by the comp. Tucker has more power, Benge should stay in CF for a bit.
Chris
2:09
What do you think the new timeline for Didier Fuentes is? They seem to know they moved him too fast but assume development of third pitch is needed
Eric A Longenhagen
2:09
I think he'll be up and down this year. We think he'll establish himself as one of their five best guys and be a good part of their rotation for a while, but probably not in 2026. At some point we'll look up and go "wow, Fuentes is this good and he's only 24?"
Brendan Gawlowski
2:11
When a guy gets hit like Fuentes did last year, it's far, far more encouraging to pull up the tape and find 2-3 actionable things that he can improve, rather than conclude 'yeah, he sure got lit up, huh? Needs to pitch better...' Better change, better arm side command and he'll be fine.
Michael - FG since 2016
2:12
Nice mean joe Greene reference.    If you were betting which Pirates’ prospects is more likely to be their next #1 overall.   Hernandez or Florentino?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:12
I'd die before a non-Jagr Penguin's name gets mentioned in glowing fashion on our website. Sethy is the answer.
Eric A Longenhagen
2:13
I guess Darius Kasparitis has been mentioned at some point.
DC
2:12
Seem to have florentino lower ranked than other sites. How come?\
Brendan Gawlowski
2:12
If it helps, I have no idea where Florentino is ranked on other sites.
Eric A Longenhagen
2:15
Even if we did, we'd have to know more about why our peers/buds ranked them where they did in order to answer that question. I think we should all just look at our own test paper, differences in our conclusions make for a healthier ecosystem for readers, imo.
David
2:15
Mariners / Current Value clarity - How do Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes have the same current hit tool?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:15
Guys multiple levels away will have low present hit tools as a default but I probably should've 35'd Arroyo's now that you mention it like that.
Jeff
2:16
One of the bigger surprises for me was Joshua Baez not making the top 110.  Is he someone that barely missed the list?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:16
He was not, I don't think his swing is going to work. Looks good on the spreadsheet, though.
Dodgers Blue
2:17
This may have been asked in a prior chat with you guys and I apologize if I missed it - but I'm curious how McLean is listed here but Chase Burns is not.  Despite McLean throwing more innings (majors and minors), what caused Burns to graduate while McLean is still eligible here?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:17
Burns exhausted his rookie eligibility.
Eric A Longenhagen
2:17
Burns graduated on roster days
Mike
2:18
Reading the updated report on Roch, the description of him out of high school sounds a lot like where Billy Carlson coming into the draft. Obviously expecting Carlson’s bat to develop that much would be irresponsible, but are the raw tools/traits decently comparable?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:18
Yes
Ghost of Wade Boggs
2:19
Which player(s) would you say have the smallest gap between their median outcome(s) and the 90th percentile outcome(s)?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:19
In the player universe? All the orgs. Of the guys on the top 100, Arias comes to mind.
EV
2:19
Christian Oppor has SP # ceiling?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:19
3/4, chance for three plus pitches, wanna see him finish stronger out front
On ceiling
Real RP risk because of command, but still might have three pluses in that role
Central PHX
2:19
Any love for Wehiwa Aloy? Big tools!
Eric A Longenhagen
2:19
Yep, like him, don't love the plate discipline
2:20
Not enough for the hondo, he's a good prospect
Roki Sasaki
2:20
You guys putting Yesavage on the list made me curious if you had any thoughts on Sasaki? Would he still be near the top if he had been ranked? I know he pitched a few more innings and started the season up, but probably didn't have too much more work than Yesavage overall.
Eric A Longenhagen
2:20
I'd still stuff Roki, he'd be a 60.
David
2:22
As we get into Spring Training, are there any Individual players either of you are excited to get a look at in particular?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:22
"Every player I've put a positive grade on" is probably too broad, huh? Draft guys who didn't play -- Conrad, Slawinski -- or projectable types who needed to grow -- Robert Arias
Matt
2:23
No JoJo Parker or Jamie Arnold? What gives?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:23
I really like Arnold but he threw sub-60% fastball strikes last year, sub-50% zone rate, jus didn't have feel for fastball command at all. I know he didn't walk anyone, but college hitters are bad. Fastball command is the big thing to watch for from him this year. He's a Pick to Click for me, but we've got guys on here who've thrown 120-140 innings at Double- and Triple-A, Arnold is more speculative.
Parker we touched on earlier. We like him too.
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