FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 1/12/16
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Paul Swydan
9:16
I would probably say Miller. I can't imagine Desmond being so much better than him that he's worth $27 more.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:17
Correct on Miller. I may also take a stab at Peraza for $8.
Big Joe Mufferaw
9:17
Why do we put so much weight in these "projections" when we have seen them fail thousands of times. They clearly projected the red sox as the best team.. I'd understand if we saw them right, but a simple look at a depth chart and a players stat page can give you way more insight and proper perspective (a computer doesn't a player struggled because he had a new contract and played through a bruised wrist).
Paul Swydan
9:19
Projections provide a good baseline from which to judge up or down. Are projections infallible? Obviously not. And last year was a particularly bad year for projection systems across the industry. But projections tell a good deal of the story, or at the very least help you frame a story. They're one tool. Depth charts are another. Health and scouting reports are two others. There's no one thing or voice that is gospel.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:19
First, it is dumb to really go all crazy about them right now with good amount of talent on the table. Also, the projection is a moving target which changes throughout the season. I like them starting barometer on how good teams are on paper.
Paul Swydan
9:19
As for why we put so much weight on them, obviously it's because they stir discussion in the months when it's super boring. We like talking about baseball, and they provide a great vessel for talking about the upcoming season. :-)
John
9:20
What more would the Rockies have to add to a trade in order for a Jose Reyes and James Shields swap to work?
Paul Swydan
9:20
They'd probably need to send at least one good prospect, or eat most of the money in both deals, which the Rockies aren't going to do.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:21
Nothing. I figured both teams would just do it because.
Sorry for delay.
Vic Romano
9:21
Generally speaking, what's the maximum number of hitters from a single team you would have on your fantasy team? Someone could conceivably get Rizzo/Bryant/Schwarber/Heyward all on a single roster, but is it wise to put all your eggs in one lineup?
Paul Swydan
9:22
I get uncomfortable at two, to be honest, and three is probably my max. Assuming a normal league size - one UTIL, 3 OFs, etc.
If it's a deep league, the effect is muted. But I still would try to not have four.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:23
I never worry about it. Too much going on at the time. Just get the best player. I have noticed in a couple mocks I have done, I end up with 2-3 Indian pitchers.
Tim
9:23
Paul, There is a lot of talk around trading Freddie Freeman. Considering he is coming into his peak years and he had depressed numbers in 2015 due to injuries, wouldn't it be wise to wait to maximize his value. I may be in the minority but I see him as a breakout candidate similar to Rizzo's numbers.
Paul Swydan
9:24
I definitely don't see him breaking out much beyond the level he is at now, but if I'm wrong, feel free to remind me how dumb I am in October. As for trading him, I don't think there would be a reason to go to a Braves game in either of the next two seasons if they do.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:24
He is not getting traded IMO.
Floyd
9:24
Parra in Denver a $20 player in NL leagues? Seems like it but should go for less.
Paul Swydan
9:24
I don't think he is that valuable, no.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:25
They need to make another trade first.
The Dude of NY
9:25
Punishment for Cardinals: Does a $2 mil fine (the maximum allowed under MLB Constitution) a forfeiture of the team's 1st Round and 2 compensatory draft picks (tentatively 26th, 32nd and 33rd overall) along with some International Spending limits be an appropriate punishment, or too harsh?
Paul Swydan
9:26
The fine is whatever. No one cares. The real punishment is in the draft picks, and I don't think what you've outlined is too harsh. I wouldn't let them keep any picks in the first three rounds, to be perfectly honest with you, and they should also be disqualified from that little extra lottery of draft picks for the next 5 years or so.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:27
Max money, top 3 picks and money which goes with it. I am tempted to have the Astros get those picks.
The Dude of NY
9:27
Has Dexter Fowler's market been more hurt by the glut of FA OFs or the QO attached to him?
Paul Swydan
9:28
I think by the glut of outfielders available more so than the comp pick, but the combination of the two basically makes Fowler kryptonite right now. At this point, he might not sign until February. I'll be shocked if this QO system doesn't get changed in the next CBA.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:28
QO - I think it needs to go or be $20 or more.
Daro
9:29
What if J Upton's asking price drops to 105/5, do you see the Red Sox signing him and trading JBJ for pitching help moving Mookie to CF?
Paul Swydan
9:29
I absolutely could see this, though I'd be more on board with benching/trading Castillo and playing Upton-Bradley-Betts.
Castillo may be more of a fourth outfielder anyway.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:30
I am not sure where Upton will end up right now. He seems impossible to get a read on.
Steve
9:30
Best leadoff option for the Blue Jays?
Paul Swydan
9:31
Tulo would be a great option. Conventionally speaking, it'd be Travis.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:32
One of the big four. I always look at this way. If it gets to the top of the lineup in the 9th inning, do you want Tulo or Travis up with the game on the line. Tulo is the easy choice.
Homer J. Fong
9:32
What do you expect from SWISH? Things seem a little more encouraging now than they did a week ago.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:33
Zero
Paul Swydan
9:33
Greatness, as usual. I haven't listened to the leaked/released tracks because I like to listen to the album as a whole.
Johnny5Alive
9:33
Cameron kept saying all chat about "calm down mets fans, Lagasse is a fine staying outfielder. " now I don't disagree, but the current team isn't projected to be very good. They need some upgrades. CF is theoretically a place they can do that. I mean that's what we want. Sure, lageres is a good player, but the mets are a .500 team right now and will be lucky to make the playoffs again, no?
Paul Swydan
9:34
You're not wrong, but there are no clear upgrades on the market over Lagares. Would I rather roll with Dexter Fowler? Probably. But the cost of acquiring Fowler won't match the degree to which he would upgrade them, particularly given the Mets thriftiness.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:35
Agree with being a .500 team, but they are limited financially from making a huge splash.
Paul Swydan
9:35
Also, "being a .500 team that gets lucky" is more or less the strategy for playoff contention for a dozen teams. The Mets aren't doing anything abnormal.
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