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FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 1/5/16
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Matt
9:39
Double question - 1) Never been in one of your chats, what's your topics focus? 2) Trea Turner, will he start next year? I've got Alicides Escobar and Kang at great contracts, thinking about moving Esco, but scared about the start of the season. Got Turner in my minors.
Paul Swydan
9:40
We try not to have a focus! We bend to the will of you, the people. Sometimes I'll stray and start talking Simpsons, or hip-hop, or movies, and this makes Jeff very angry. But usually we just try to pick the best questions and answer them. :-)
9:41
As for Trea Turner, I don't see him starting in the first half, especially after the Stephen Drew signing.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:41
1. Whatever mood Paul is in for the night 2)Make a trade later in the season when Kang is back
The Dude of NY
9:42
Would you say the Orioles are in a similar position to the Reds in 2014, in that they're one season removed from a very successful season, but should really start rebuilding now, or face underwhelming returns when they inevitably have to?
Paul Swydan
9:43
Sort of. The difference is that Dan Duquette can run circles around Walt Jocketty, and he will keep the O's afloat for far longer.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:43
They could be, but I would make sure the team is dead. I rookie breakout or two and they are back in the hunt. I would error on the side of being a bit late on a rebuild.
Dr Evil
9:44
gut feel: Wagner a HOF'r?
Jeff Zimmerman
9:44
Nope
Paul Swydan
9:45
Gut feel - he gets in in year 10, when some of the backlog has been cleared, both on the ballot and among the people who fill it out.
Joe Quinn
9:46
Swydan, I notice you linked to a story about the ABL's Perth Heat earlier. Do either of you guys keep an eye on the ABL at all? If so, any fringey prospects currently playing in the ABL that you would pick to make meaningful MLB contributions in the near future, ala Kiermaier, Gregorious (ex Canberra Cavalry, ABL alums)?..
Paul Swydan
9:47
I don't, no. But the woman who wrote that story for THT, Alexis Brudnicki, has been in Australia during the ABL for the past four years, and is a prospect watcher. If anyone knows, she does. Hit her up on Twitter.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:47
I don't follow it at all and don't know about any of their prospects
Matt(a)
9:48
I'm a fan of Cashman, and understand (and like) most of his moves (and agree). But what are your thoughts on the team looking for SPs with a full (injury risk) rotation, after trading their best spot starter, and putting their 6th starter (Nova) on the market?
Paul Swydan
9:48
I mean, why wouldn't you put your 6th starter on the trade market? I don't see the problem.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:49
Nova wasn't really good after coming back and who knows in the information is even real.
Larry Eagle
9:50
Just overheard my daughter say "mama, I think something's wrong. All of my farts are hot." Not saying this needs to be added to the chat, but damn was it funny.
Paul Swydan
9:50
No no, that needed to be added to the chat.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:50
Hot farts
The Dude
9:50
I like your in depth MLB TV show. I would like to see a single game dissected in depth by a few players from said game. Pick a game long enough ago that all players are retired so that no current secrets get divulged. You like?
Paul Swydan
9:51
The production budget would be a lot higher for stuff like that, because you'd need to track them down, find a common time for them to be in the studio, fly them all in, etc, etc. I'd prefer to do that only for special occasions, and rely on the talent on hand for the most part. But it's a good idea, obviously.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:51
Maybe one game a week. Maybe all of Pedro's starts when he hit a batter would be a good place to start
rustydude
9:52
Considering Theo's success returning championship baseball in Boston, and his impending success doing the same in Chicago, should he move onto the NFL and run the Browns - oops!
Paul Swydan
9:52
Haha. Well, Theo does certainly *seem* to have the golden touch, but nothing in Chicago is assured. We said the same thing about the Nationals last year, and look how that turned out.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:53
Why would anyone get near the Browns is beyond me.
Gerard
9:54
Could GMs loading their team's bullpen with a lot of equally talented relief pitchers be a way for them to eliminate the previously poor decisions that bench coaches and managers would make as to what an actual high leverage situation was? It seems like this could be a possible explanation for why the KC and NYY teams have surpassed their expected win totals in the last couple of years.
Paul Swydan
9:55
Yes, but again, this is a delicate balancing act. If you sign guys like this in free agency, or trade for them, there is an expectation among those players that they are going to pitch. If you're not pitching them, then guys get grumpy. So you can't just go out and sign 7 great set-up men/closers, because they'll all eat each other.
Dale
9:57
Hey Paul, is Swihart a trade bait with Vazquez return?
Jeff Zimmerman
9:57
Maybe, but I looked into detail on KC exceeding their win total and it came down to projected defense. KC is the only team ever to have 3 straight seasons of 50+ UZR. Most other teams with UZR over 50 regress by around 40 UZR
Paul Swydan
9:57
I don't think so, no. For one, I don't think Vazquez is the better player of the two. For two, every team should have two good catchers, so the Red Sox should just hold on to both of them.
Paul
9:59
You think the Braves could swoop in and make a play on one of these big remaining free agents? They have cleared payroll considerably for the future and plan on contending in 2017. #MysteryTeam?
Jeff Zimmerman
9:59
No, not really. I see them picking up some pieces at the end and trying to move them at the trade deadline.
Paul Swydan
10:00
I think if they were going to do that, they would have targeted Heyward, since he was so young. I don't think it would make much sense for them to be targeting 30+ year old players, because if they don't contend in 2017 -- which is FARRRRR from a sure thing -- then they probably just wasted the productive years of the free agent they're signing this winter.
Waiting for Spring
10:00
If you guys are the Nats, do you bite the bullet and start Trea Turner on OD? Or do you leave Turner in AAA until you make up for your idiotic decision to burn his service clock last year ... despite the fact that your advanatage in projected WAR over the Mets is based on Turner's 1.9 WAR and 524 at bats?
Paul Swydan
10:01
I would, and not just because of the projections. I would because playing Stephen Drew is a total waste of time, and there is maybe like a 5% chance that Turner plays worse than Drew would. Get him the experience now, and then you're not breaking him in during the pennant race. Pretty sure Ted Lerner can afford it.
Jeff Zimmerman
10:01
IMO, Turner is the better player and should be starting immediately. The Nats need to put it all together and win the division.
The Dude of NY
10:02
If the whole purpose of trading Schwarber is to send him to an AL team where he can DH, than wouldn't Oakland be a really poor fit, given Billy Butler is firmly entrenched there for the next two years?
Paul Swydan
10:02
I'm sure Billy Beane could find a trade partner for Butler, a) and b) there's no reason Schwarber needs to DH ***immediately***. It just is nice for him to have that option.
Jeff Zimmerman
10:03
I figured the A's would put him in the OF since they have historically shown they care little about defense.
Paul Swydan
10:04
OK, folks, I think that is going to do it for tonight. Thank you all for hanging out, and we'll see you next week!
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