JotCast | FanGraphs After Dark Chat

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Paul Swydan

9:50

No, our Annual is more focused on essays and a season recap. You can see previous editions of the Annual here. http://www.hardballtimes.com/bookstore/

We are definitely not trying to live in the same space as the BP Annual. I don't know why anyone would, it's a great book!

Jarrods agent

9:50

Re trading cain, can't you do both? Trade him and compete. Like almora, hammel and zagunis for cain? Rotation help, cain replacement no ready, and interesting bat in zagunis for the same price as cain? Isn't it just reallocating resources to fill holes?

Paul Swydan

9:51

Yeah but what are the Cubs doing with Cain? They already have Fowler, Zobrist, Heyward and Soler.

I think it'd be hard to get fair value for Cain, because he's one of those guys that's above average at everything without being really awesome at anything.

9:52

He's the kind of guy you hold on to.

Conner

9:52

Is there actually a nonzero chance Trout gets traded? Seems like he's so good that he's acasually priced himself out of any trade possibilities

Paul Swydan

9:52

I think it's non-zero, but I'd put it at less than three percent. There'd be no reason to go to Angels games for the next 5 years if you trade Trout. There's literally not one other reason to buy a ticket to their games.

Jarrods agent

9:53

Fowler a free agent.

Paul Swydan

9:53

I suppose, but I'd think he's going back. Last year, they had the qualifying offer thing to work through. But I don't think he's allowed to be QO'd a second year in a row, so they'll work out a longer deal.

9:54

And if he's not back, well, they still have 3 outfielders who can play every day.

Jaime

9:54

How many relief innings (if any) could Bumgarner pitch in a hypothetical game 5?

Paul Swydan

9:54

That's tricky. Relief innings for a starter are a lot easier to dial up in the World Series because there's no tomorrow, but obviously it's happened before.

I'd say 2 at the most.

Roger

9:55

If I were an Angels fan, I might go to a game or take my kid simply to see Pujols--he's not what he once was, but he's an all time great; might as well watch him play in person at least once.

Paul Swydan

9:55

OK, but once would probably be the upper bound of that reasoning. And the Angels need casual fans to come out at least 3-4 times a year. I don't see it. Not unless it's a Williams for DiMaggio and Berra type of deal.

Tim

9:56

Cargo, Braun, and Puig are likely trade candidates--what about the Sale, McCutchen, or other big names?

Paul Swydan

9:56

I think the Pirates will probably just let McCutchen walk when his contract is up, but I've been wrong before.

I don't see the White Sox trading Sale either.

And to be honest, I don't see the Rockies trading CarGo. I think the Rockies once again are of the belief that they can make the playoffs next season.

Trent

9:57

Suppose the Diamondbacks get healthy years from Pollock and Peralta; and seasons from Miller and Greinke that are consistent with their career averages--how many games do they win next year?

Paul Swydan

9:57

76. 78 if I'm feeling generous.

(I'm not feeling generous)

anon

9:58

what can heyward do to improve his offense next year... what didnt work this year

Paul Swydan

9:59

He hit too many pop ups. He had too much Soft contact. He was bad - for the first time - against fastballs, both four and two seam fastballs.

But he was also really bad against change-ups.

10:00

To me, the biggest thing in his profile is that while he swung at the same percentage of pitches outside the strike zone, he made contact on pitches outside of the strike zone at a career-high rate -- his career O-Contact% is 67.7%, but this year it was 74.7%.

But his plate discipline numbers were still largely the same, which is slightly confusing.

10:01

He's just a hard guy to peg.

But, the moral seems to be - swing at better pitches.

Tomas

10:01

I've heard some Red Sox fans talking about trading for Votto; they mentioned E-Rod and Benintendi as a potential trade. Would that do the trick for the Reds?

Paul Swydan

10:01

That's the start of a good trade, but as much as I like Votto, I'll take the next six years of Benintendi over the next six years of Votto.

Jarrods agent

10:02

New gm has to convince ownership to eat some money and move greinke right? Otherwise they have to include pollock or lamb in any deal and lose so much value right? That contract is too big for that franchise for 33-37 seasons.

Paul Swydan

10:02

I doubt it. I'm sure the Dbacks owners want to try to keep winning right away.

10:03

OK everyone, that's going to do it for me tonight. This hour FLEW by, I have to say. October is a glorious time. Enjoy the rest of this game. I have a hunch we're going to see a Game 5.

Thanks for hanging out, as always.

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