JotCast | FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 11/14/17

FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 11/14/17

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Paul Swydan

7:38

In which sport that plays a decent number of games do you think it's the hardest to win 10+ games in a row?

MLB (46.6% | 68 votes)

NBA (9.6% | 14 votes)

NHL (26.7% | 39 votes)

Pro soccer (MLS/EPL/etc.) (17.1% | 25 votes)

Total Votes: 146

7:40

Which of Dave Cameron's top 10 free agents would you *least* like your team to sign?

Yu Darvish (1.8% | 3 votes)

J.D. Martinez (1.2% | 2 votes)

Jake Arrieta (17.2% | 28 votes)

Carlos Santana (3.7% | 6 votes)

Eric Hosmer (45.4% | 74 votes)

Lorenzo Cain (4.9% | 8 votes)

Wade Davis (3.1% | 5 votes)

Mike Moustakas (10.4% | 17 votes)

Zack Cozart (11% | 18 votes)

Alex Cobb (1.2% | 2 votes)

Total Votes: 163

4:29

Which of Paul's 10 players he's excited to watch are *you* most excited to watch in 2018?

Rafael Devers (26.6% | 42 votes)

Gio Gonzalez (1.3% | 2 votes)

Dellin Betances (12% | 19 votes)

Nomar Mazara (10.8% | 17 votes)

Jon Gray (12% | 19 votes)

Jose Berrios (19% | 30 votes)

Dee Gordon (1.9% | 3 votes)

Mike Zunino (5.1% | 8 votes)

Lorenzo Cain (3.2% | 5 votes)

David Wright (8.2% | 13 votes)

Total Votes: 158

9:02

Hi everybody!

Beni and the Betts

9:03

Being a Red Sox fan, I can't say I'm too upset with this, but it seems like Judge is being slighted in the MVP race, no? He leads Altuve in most relevant categories (both old fashioned and sabermetric) and yet most writers are acting like Altuve is a no doubter. What say you?

Paul Swydan

9:04

I don't think either of them are no doubters, but I would agree that the media narrative has landed on Altuve's side. We'll see Thursday I guess. I honestly don't care either way.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:04

I think Altuve is going to get the vote based on his career to this point.

Paul Swydan

9:04

MLB should be organizing an awards show night and making a big deal out of everything. Instead they drip, drip, drip the awards, like we're children who can't process multiple pieces of information at once. It's infuriating.

Jason

9:05

What do you think about Yoan Moncada so far?

Paul Swydan

9:05

So far, so good. He's gotta cut the strikeouts and improve defensively, but he doesn't look like a bust by any stretch.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:06

As expected. Some swing and miss but is athletic enough to be productive like Byron Buxton

Jackson

9:06

What's the right price to pay for Giancarlo Stanton for a big-market team like the Red Sox or Giants? A major league-level player like Jackie Bradley Jr.? A lottery ticket prospect or two? Is he just straight up not worth it?

Paul Swydan

9:07

I think the price would certainly include Bradley. I think the price is high enough that it won't be worth paying for any team. The opt-out may have already killed his trade value. I expect him to stay in Miami.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:07

He's worth something but I'm not sure if anyone has broken down his surplus value

Raul Mondesi Relaford

9:07

Mets have about $30 million to spend this winter. Is trading for Stanton and signing nobody else the best use of that?

Paul Swydan

9:08

Depends obviously on what they'd have to give up. But given that they already have good players in the outfield corners (assuming full health for Conforto) I don't think so, no.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:08

No, they should look a more long term. Also, they need a ton of parts, not just one.

Mario mendoza

9:08

What goes on in a manager job interview?

Paul Swydan

9:08

I would imagine it's pretty close to a normal job interview.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:08

No idea

joe

9:09

How many at bats does Ohtani get in 2018*?

Paul Swydan

9:09

I'll say 200.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:10

I'd not be surprised if it is even more. His batting comps are better than pitching ones using translations

harmony

9:10

Would two years of righthander Dellin Betances with a projected 2018 salary of $4.4 million and two years of outfielder Aaron Hicks with a projected 2018 salary of $2.9 million be enough to offset the three years and $68.5 million remaining on Jacoby Ellsbury's contract if the Yankees packaged the three in a trade?

Paul Swydan

9:10

Again, would depend on the player the Yankees are seeking, but I see no reason to dump Ellsbury's money. He was a league-average player this year, and giving away two assets to make his contract go away seems counter productive. The Yankees can afford the payroll hit.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:12

Just drop Ellsbury if you don't want the contract. The Yankees need the other two, especially Betances

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

9:12

How much will the Red Sox regret giving Hosmer 6 years and at least $120 million?

Paul Swydan

9:12

Well, probably less than they'd regret giving him the $150M he'll probably get.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:13

Yes

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

9:13

A rebuilding team should go "Wilin Rosario? Sure, why not," right?

Paul Swydan

9:13

Absolutely. I was a little mystified that he had to go overseas to begin with.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:14

Yes, nothing to lose

Hannah Hochevar

9:14

Neil Diamond isn't even from Boston

Paul Swydan

9:14

Hannah checks in with an important note.

John Olerud

9:14

I was hoping you guys could help me with some baseball research I'm trying to conduct. Specifically, I'm trying to accumulate a comprehensive sampling of all those players who performed at an elite level during their short-lived peak (maybe for a few years, give or take), but were otherwise mostly replacement-level (or worse). As an example, I present Kelly Gruber. Any advise on how (or through what site/database) such a search could be done? Would you say WAR is the best stat to go by?

Paul Swydan

9:15

Jeff is better at questions like these than me, but I would try to filter by guys with big variations between their best season and their second and third-best seasons.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:15

It's easy for peak vs average

Paul Swydan

9:16

I wrote about something similar to this once, regarding Tommy Harper. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-speedy-tommy-harper-and-the-random...

A Tribe Called Kipnis

9:16

Matt Chapman ($4) or Jeimer Candelario ($1) in deep AL dynasty OBP league?

Paul Swydan

9:16

Oooh, tough one.

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