FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 12/1/15
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Old Man Roto
9:41
Hope you had a nice gobble gobble. I'm loaded at pitching. Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, D Salazar, Matz, ERod, Severino, Stroman, Smyly, and more. All are under $9 and most under $5. Trade Kluber for Joc P and Desmond? Mixed 5x5 keeper. Thanks.
Paul Swydan
9:42
Even given how flush you are, I'd want more for Kluber. I'd do that package for Carrasco though.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:42
I am with Paul. I may go for one hitter which I was more sure of.
Guest
9:43
So the Red Sox are pretty much done, right? If HanRam is playing 1B. The Rotation looks pretty decent with Price,Buchholz,Porcello,ERod, and Miley.
Paul Swydan
9:44
No, I don't think so. I think they're still going to try to move Sandoval and/or Ramirez, and I'd be a lot happier if they could upgrade Miley or Porcello. And the bullpen definitely still needs work. Maybe done with the splashy moves, but not done.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:44
I would hope not, but they can go with those if they like, but it is still a suspect rotation
John
9:44
The Braves are actively shopping Shelby Miller. The Red Sox and Cubs were mentioned earlier this afternoon. Say Dembrowski isn't done with the pitching staff. What would be a type of package the Red Sox would have to trade for him?
Paul Swydan
9:45
More than Miller is worth, probably.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:45
and they would probably get it.
I should put my THT annual article to work on it
Paul Swydan
9:46
Yes, you should.
Did you guys buy the THT Annual yet? Don't do me like that. It's only $14.39. You'll spend more on lunch tomorrow, probably!
Scott
9:46
Ken Rosenthal reported that the Braves initially offered Shelby Miller for Pollock straight up. Then, after being rejected, offered Miller and Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and Aaron Blair. In my opinion, Pollock is much more valuable than that. Am I wrong?
Paul Swydan
9:46
You're not wrong.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:47
No
But offer dumb trades to Arizona is a smart move, they may accept
offering
Anonymouse
9:48
What is the percentage of players turning down a player opt out? Offhand I can't think of one, but I would imagine there must have been some due to injury or poor performance. It just seems like very high odds this Price deal is really 3/90 rather than 7/217, no?
Paul Swydan
9:48
That's not really a fair question though, because only really, really good players are going to be able to get opt-outs in their contracts.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:49
and all I can think of who used them are CC and Zack
Ruby
9:49
According to FG's stats, every single full-time 1B posted a negative 'Def' stat (in the 'Off'/'Def' breakdowns for WAR) in 2015. What gives?
Paul Swydan
9:49
First basemen suck at defense?
Jeff Zimmerman
9:50
and the 1B penalty is insanely high. It is tough to overcome it with good defensive plays
A cat
9:50
A recent post by a Red Sox insider pointed to a Buchholz trade once he displays he is healthy. DD doesn't want to deal with the injury risk and apparently will use him to get back prospects to replace some that went to SD for Kimbrell. That leaves Porcello as a 2, higher than one would like. Would this not indicate a forthcoming trade for another top pitcher, such as Carrasco, Salazar or Ross?
Paul Swydan
9:50
When Buchholz displays he is healthy? When is that going to be? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:51
I would not be surprised to see Buchholz in the bullpen within the year
The Dude
9:52
For the record: Jeff, you won THT annual 2016 best article award. I've used it in over a dozen discussions over the past week. I want this on the record!
Paul Swydan
9:52
It has officially been entered onto the record!
Jeff Zimmerman
9:53
Thanks, I have been wanting to do that article for years. Was a huge pain, but worth it to see it done.
Paul Swydan
9:53
Huge pain is an understatement. Jeff and I had to Gchat for close to 3 hours to iron that thing out, ha.
Jake Arrieta's Beard
9:53
Schwarber for Carlos Gonzalez? I really really really hope the Cubs don't come anywhere near that. Carlos is both a complete product of Coors and an endless injury concern. If Schwarber is to be traded, surely he can fetch a better return than that.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:53
It was only 3 hours?
9:54
I think he should. His value will really depend on where he can play acceptable defense
Paul Swydan
9:54
You would think a Cubs fan who just watched put up the best season of his career in a Cubs uniform would think twice before trotting out the foolish "product of Coors" BS.
9:55
just watched Dexter Fowler
Jordan
9:55
Why would the Rockies need to eat any money in a Schwarber/CarGo deal? CarGo had a great year, specifically the second half, Schwarber is an unproven player (albeit with big potential and big power), CarGo is only going to make 37 mil over the next 2 years, and I think he would get more then that if he was a FA, if anything it seems like the Cubs would need to kick something in.
Paul Swydan
9:56
CarGo is still an injury risk, is why. And because the Cubs would have the leverage in that trade scenario, as Schwarber is more valuable in a vacuum. That CarGo may be a better fit on the Cubs' roster doesn't make much difference in the trade scenario. Chicago could trade Schwarber anywhere.
And I don't think CarGo would make 20 a year if he was a FA right now.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:56
The Cubs could keep Schwarber and spend $18.5M a year and get a free agent. And Cargo has had one healthy year
Tom
9:57
Can you ever foresee radar data (that is currently collected by MLB teams) being added to WAR or to player projections?
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