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FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 12/15/15

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Paul Swydan

9:40

I would think the main benefit of getting a guy like Carrasco would be to upgrade over Hammel and not Hendricks, so I wouldn't be inclined to include Hendricks in any proposals.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:41

You might be there. The Indians will be looking for more than the Braves got more Miller

Paul Swydan

9:41

That's for sure, though I doubt they'll get it.

Dr Evil

9:41

Aaron Hicks just a really good 4th OF type, or is he a starter in the future?

Paul Swydan

9:42

I think he can still be a starter, but it's nice to know that he has definite fourth outfielder status now.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:42

He could start somewhere and may quite a bit in NY with their injury prone OF

9:42

Assuming Price would've signed with San Francisco for similar terms as with Boston, would the Giants have been better off with Shark and Cueto or with Price and their best cheap young SP?

Paul Swydan

9:43

I'm inclined to say Price, but just by a whisker. Shark and Cueto is not a bad outcome for them.

And I only say Price + young guy because the Giants specifically always seem to turn up useful young/inexperienced players.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:44

I like the move for two pitchers. Their rotation was not good at the bottom and another scrub got pushed down the ladder

Jim

9:44

Do baseball sights or orgs hire students the summer after high school graduation

Paul Swydan

9:44

Sometimes? It depends on the person, generally, and the job type.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:45

I have known it to happen, but most have been doing the work already. Chris C. is an example at SBN

SchwarberBomb

9:46

WHY ISN'T THERE A GOOD MOBILE APP FOR FANGRAPHS

Paul Swydan

9:46

Because we are more focused on building a site that looks good on a mobile browser than we are building an app that is going to be outdated as soon as you buy your next phone. :-)

Jeff Zimmerman

9:47

Yep

Paul Swydan

9:47

But thank you for your interest in a FanGraphs app. It is noted for the record.

Walker

9:47

Exact question addressed by Dave Cameron here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-giants-diversification-strategy/

Paul Swydan

9:47

Yes, right, Dave did write about that today.

SchwarberBomb

9:47

Can someone just tell me the best to use out of xFIP, FIP-, xFIP-, and ERA-? I get so damn confused.

Oh, and also SIERA.

Paul Swydan

9:48

I don't think there is a best. They all tell you different things. It depends on what info you are looking for. Are you looking for descriptive data or predictive data?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:49

All depends on how you want to use them. Each has its own use.

zak

9:49

what's the difference between FIP and truERA?

Paul Swydan

9:49

Well, I think the main difference is that I have heard of FIP, but not truERA.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:49

My exact question

SchwarberBomb

9:49

I'm usually looking for predictive data.

Paul Swydan

9:50

Then I think you probably want to look more at xFIP, but Jeff is more of an authority on this than I am.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:50

http://www.hardballtimes.com/kwera-the-starting-point-for-pitcher-evaluations/

Paul Swydan

9:51

Yeah, just read Jeff's articles on THT. :-)

Jeff Zimmerman

9:51

Near the bottom, the predictive values are stated.

Derek

9:51

How would a pitcher do as a starter if he only goes through the lineup twice, but throws 75% eephuses (eephii?) and 25% 95mph heaters with league average command?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:51

The best defs are in our glossary.

Paul Swydan

9:51

Poorly. Very poorly.

9:52

You couldn't throw the eephus that often and not have hitters time it and crush it.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:52

I don't know, but it would be can't miss TV

Paul Swydan

9:52

If they knew 3 of 4 pitches would be the eephus, they would just sit on that until they did damage.

Rick

9:52

Which teams do you expect to out perform the Depth Chart predictions at this point?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:52

And massive popups

Paul Swydan

9:53

Well, the Royals, for starters. They're not this bad:

Connecting…

Roberto

11:04

The primary Pirates first baseman on opening day will be -------.

The Dude

11:31

How weird is it that Steamer projects Kris Bryant to have an identical wOBA and wRC+ in 2016 as he had in 2015?

The Dude

11:34

Anyone else really pumped to see The Hateful Eight? Just got the tickets to see it opening day in glorious 70MM!

11:35

It's dark. Let's start.

The Dude

11:36

What would a Nolan Arenado extension look like?

11:36

What do think Swihart becomes? Is he a top 5 catcher?

Wondering

11:38

What are the odds Soler is a Cub the whole year? Doesn't trading him for more pitching just create a hole in CF? It seems they could pick up some cheap pitching without trading him and then needing to trade for more OF help. Thanks.

The Dude

11:39

How stiff a punishment do you think MLB should give to domestic abusers? It has to be more than the 50 games for marijuana, right?

anon

11:40

There are a lot of top hitters still left on the market. Who signs first? Who is left standing? Will someone take a 1 yr contract and try again next year?

anon

11:42

With Cueto gone, do the dodgers go after maeda? trade? Their rotation isn't good enough as is right?

11:42

Who among Gordon, Upton, and Cespedes would be the best fit for the Angels? Who among them are they likeliest to sign?

bill

11:43

What do you think the Jays will do about resigning Encarnacion and/or Bautista?

11:44

Do you think Ryu will be ready to go at the beginning of the season?

anon

11:45

Who was a bigger overpay: Kimbrel or Giles?

Jim

11:48

Angels sign Chris Davis trade cron Santiago bedrosian for cargo or carrasco

Chris S

11:56

Do you think the Nationals can move Papelbon?

Chris S

11:58

Who do you think will be the left handed OF the nationals land?

Todd

12:02

True or False - Tyson Ross will be traded before opening day. If true, where does he go and for what? (It's the Cubs, isn't it?)

Mike D

12:05

It shouldn't take Soler to get Inciarte, let alone Soler +. Right?

anon

12:11

When building a team from scratch, what are important qualities in hitters: high OBP, contact, power, defense, something else? Would focus on a couple of these areas or balance? What would you prioritize?

Chris S

12:13

Who could be the left handed 2B the Nationals acquire? I was adamant Utley for a year would have been a decent option.

Chris S

12:14

Where does Mike Leake end up?

Chris S

12:16

Thanks ever so much for your time, do Tyson and Joe Ross have a chance to get the highest brotherly WAR?

Vic

12:17

How confident are you in deGrom remaining a Top 10 SP going forward? Do you think last year will be his career season?

pepper69fun

12:17

Teheran and Inciarte for Baez and Soler? Certainly today for Cubs, CF solved, rotation deepened, and players are cost controlled. Big upside bats for Braves. Fair? Who says no?

Chris S

12:18

Do you follow the Australian Baseball League? If so anybody look major league quality? its had Kiermaier and Gregorius

James

12:20

So the Rangers want to sign Beltre to an extension, how much is he worth? I feel at some point he needs to start declining.

anon

12:21

Heyward contract details: $20M signing bonus fully payable if he opts out (or deferred) and a total of $78M first 3 years leaving $21.2M average over the last 5. Cubs pay huge upfront but if he is healthy, he leaves, and if he is injured then the back half is not as big a commitment. Sounds like a win-win. Am I understanding this right? Are there any negatives?

anon

12:23

Will the extended nets make a difference in the game? Will there be a greater Home field advantage where ever there is a larger foul territory, as the players wont be able to dive into the stands any more?

Chris

12:25

After all the deadline deals the Jays made in 2015, how weak is their prospect pool now? Is there a possibility that they trade Bautista and Encarnacion this season to replenish the system?

Ryan

12:40

Everyone's talking about what the Cubs will trade for next, and I'm just sitting here hoping they stand pat and don't somehow mess it up. The team is going to be great next year.

Trystan

12:52

I pitch for my weekend league and find my change gets hit by opposite handers more and my slider by same handers more, are there any pitchers in the MLB who have this happen? it seems to buck the stereotypes

Trystan

1:00

Begin.

Kris

1:09

How much will the Rangers be improved from having Hamels, M. Perez, Holland, Dyson, Diekman, Wilhelmsen, and J. Hamilton for an entire season and Darvish for most of it?

anon

1:10

How many years till the next MLB expansion? Will there be a MLB team in Puerto rico or mexico in the next 20 years?

Kris

1:11

With Gallo, Brinson, Mazara, Ortiz, Tate, etc. where would the Rangers' farm system rank?

Edge O

1:20

The Braves signed Beckham and Bonifacio. Obvious rebuild going on. Is there really that little faith in Jace? Doesn't the kid deserve every opportunity? What do you expect from him.

Merv Throneberry

1:21

Is Melancon out the door in a sell high trade? He was arguably the best closer of 2015 and yet, Merv has been hearing this a lot...

Merv Throneberry

1:22

Might Yelich break out this year, or break up with the Marlins?

1:24

If McGee and Boxberger remain in TB, who do you think closes?

Chipmunknunchuks

1:28

If Johnny Cueto opts out after 2 yrs of his deal w/ the Giants, can the Giants still offer him the one yr deal amount -- thereby securing draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere? Or would the draft pick comp be nullified by the opt-out clause?

Chipmunknunchuks

1:39

Who is your pick for the best RHanded hitting OF platoon (non full-time) player still out on the market?

Brian

1:39

Are the Cubs nervous about Arrieta being over worked last year?

1:42

Which rebuilding team do you think could be a surprise this season?

Brian

1:43

David Ross was terrible last year. Tell me the Cubs have a plan to address this.

Jordan

1:44

As a Jays fan, I'm starting to get the feeling that we may be heading towards a "premature" rebuild , I started thinking about it and the guy we know the names they wanted, Duquette, Kenny Williams & of course Shapiro, these are all mid to low budget payrolls. Am I reading this wrong?

Jordan

1:46

I feel like if the Jays aren't heading towards the rebuild I think they are, they should go after Votto, and next year let Bautista & Dickey walk while hopefully reinvesting in a starting pitcher, is that too much of a fantasy idea?

Matt

1:48

Challenge trade... Teheran and Inciarte for Schwarber. Who says no?

Matt

1:49

Does Soler, Contreras, and Pierce Johnson for Inciarte and Vizcaino work for both teams?

The Dude

1:51

Could one make an argument that Pete Rose's life is like a Shakespearian tragedy? He was a "nobleman" of baseball, (wealth, achievements, influence, etc.) whose tragic flaw (gambling/addictive personality) leads to his fall from grace, his life falling into utter chaos. The only aspect seemingly missing is his death (which, given his age, is not that far on the horizon).

hanna ny

1:57

Does fangraphs have access to the Statcast data? If you do have access to it how would you use it to update your stats?

Edge O

1:57

White Sox aren't selling on Abreu or Sale yet Brett Lawrie and a couple of Cs who aren't clear upgrades are their only moves so far. Who should t hey be adding. As is, does Thompson or Garcia start in RF

hanna ny

1:58

What secret weapon does Brian Cashman have under his sleeve?

hayden

1:58

where would a) benefit most from yoenis and b) benefit yoenis most?

hanna ny

1:59

How could I find a summer internship for a site like this one?

Pat

1:59

Does Brett Gardner get traded?

Pat

2:00

Thoughts on Aaron Hicks numbers if he gets 500 PAs

Christian

2:00

Would you rather have Shelby Miller or Taijuan Walker?

Seth

2:00

Best chance of breaking out in a dynasty league? Wil Myers, Steven Souza or Marcell Ozuna.

hanna ny

2:01

How can a projection system "like" or "dislike" a player? If there is a year where a system projects worse for a player does it even out over the course of many years?

Paul

2:01

What are your feelings on Billy Beane? I've liked his trades in the past, but the Samardzija, Donaldson, and recent Lawrie trade don't seem very good to me. Are the GM's of the Astros, Rays, and Cubs now considered better?

Pat

2:02

are people overreacting to the loss of Justin Wilson? Don't the Yankees still have a top four bullpen?

The Dude

2:02

OK, for anyone else watching the GOP debate, I'm confused what the US-Mexican border has to do with ISIS?

hanna ny

2:02

Hi, do you look at the questions built up in the queue or should I resend them?

Pat

2:03

16 team league what pick would be ideal to get most value out of the first 4 rounds?

hanna

2:04

WIll Chris Davis get his asking price?

bookbook

2:06

Best baseball player on the stage right now? Chris Christie might make a good catcher. Rand Paul in left field?

hanna

2:06

Can heyward play center? Is that what the cubs have in mind for him?

Sean P!

2:08

What sort of WAR do you see Addison Russell putting up this year? How about in his prime?

John

2:10

Do you think the White Sox acquire one of Cespedes or Frazier? Possibly Both?

Ryan

2:11

The depth charts currently have the Reds as better than the Royals, Twins, Tigers, and Diamondbacks. If they were in any division but the NL central, would there be a case for making one last go at contention in 2016?

Doctor Doom

2:12

Should teams interested in Todd Frazier be concerned about his 2nd half numbers? I know you've written before that whole season metrics are generally more predictive than 1st half/2nd half. But the drop in BB% and rise in K% seem troubling.

Roger

2:13

Which team should trade for Todd Frazier? And what is the highest-ranked prospect the Reds could expect in return (e.g., top-25 in MLB, top-50, top-100)?

Go Royals

2:13

How many games will the Washington Nationals win in 2016?

John

2:14

With Sale, Rodon, Quintana and Montas/Fulmer...Can the sox possibly have a top 5 rotation in a few years?

Ryan

2:14

Do you think we will start to see opt-out gamesmanship in coming years? For example, David Price might plan to exercise his opt-out, but then ultimately think better of it when Kershaw and Greinke exercise theirs and make the FA market that much more pitching-saturated?

Guest

2:14

I was thinking about a trade centered around Bregman and Ross. Seems like a good basis for a trade, doesn't it?

Hanna

2:15

This newer chat system is slow on chromw

Ryan

2:15

I gotta say, jotcast is infinity times better for mobile than old CiL

Ryan

2:16

Cueto for the next two years: 390 innings, 2.70 ERA, 3.80 xFIP. Reasonable?

The Dude

2:16

Do you think the A's front office needs some new blood? I get that no one has any idea what Beane is ever doing, but most of the FA signings this offseason seem questionable.

Hanna

2:17

Cashman has been pretty successful in achieving his goals for the offseason. I never thought that the entire middle relief corps would be gone though...

Eric

2:18

What do you expect out of Carlos Gomez next year?

Doctor Doom

2:18

If you're the GM in CLE and you absolutely HAVE to trade away one of Kluber, Carrasco or Salazar, who do you trade and why?

The Dude

2:18

Do you think Cueto will be able to continue to induce soft contact, or will he finally fall victim to his peripherals?

Hanna

2:18

Is Jacob lindgren going to contribute to the big league club this year? He seems to be the left cash is relying on

zak

2:21

where does Maeda end up?

Minty

2:24

I meant do you like Giolito or Urias more?

The Dude

2:26

Does WAR undervalue SP who are able to eat a lot of innings with league average results? Considering how fragile pitchers are, should there be extra value per inning of pitchers with say, 200+ innings?

Jim

2:26

Do a projections "like" a player one year then turn it around and regress to a mean the next?

The Dude

2:27

Happy Birthday Trystan!

Minty

2:27

Realistically, next year's rookie class won't be nearly as good as this historic one. Who are you excited to see debut?

Seth

2:27

who do you see the dodgers getting this offseason for the rotation, bullpen and/or another bat in the lineup?

Mike

2:27

Do you think the A's sign another free agent starter and if so, which one.

Jed Hoyer

2:28

Theo tasked me with working the phones on this, so are there any young CF's out there that could be had for the price of 1 Jason Hammel?

Mark

2:29

How do you feel about Trea Turner for the upcoming year? He's clearly been given the keys to SS.

Nick Swisher

2:29

Does my dazzling smile get any teams to sign me or is my career over?

The Dude

2:30

Which team's rebuilding process do you like more: Phillies or Braves?

Josh

2:30

Any chance the Cubs could deal for Jackie Bradley Jr. ? What would Boston need in return to entertain such an idea?

Dr Evil

2:30

Chances Oberholtzer and Velasquez alone provide more value than Giles? (this year and going forward)

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