FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 2/2/16
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Paul Swydan
9:31
One for Jeff.
The Dude of NY
9:32
Why does Fangraphs make Jeff Sullivan write like 3 times as many articles as everyone else?
Jeff Zimmerman
9:33
You will need to download the .csv for a few seasons and then match up the playerid (uncluded on sheet) for the players with something like vlookup
He is a cyborg.
Paul Swydan
9:34
While Jeff is answering - Sullivan writes more because he doesn't really do anything else. Dave and Carson edit FG, Carson has the pod, Eno has RG, I have THT, Dan has prospects all by himself. We need Jeff to be the guy who writes a lot. August too.
Also, that's not a knock on Sullivan. Very few of us could do what he does. It's very hard to pick 10 engaging topics a week, and then also write eloquently about them. Jeff is amazing.
Ed in Iowa
9:35
I feel like there is probably a non-linearity of $ per WAR for generational talents like Harper and Trout. I don't think Harper will get a contract that will actually pay him $9M (plus inflation) per projected WAR because he will simply have too high of a projected WAR. What if you predict him to produce 95 WAR over the length of a 13 year contract, with inflation that'd mean he was "worth" around a billion dollars. I don't see a team being able to stomach that risk for a guy that could get drilled in the head (or choked by a teammate) at any moment. Similarly (though not exactly the same), I don't think Trout is the most valuable trade commodity because to make a reasonable offer you'd have to give up something like $120M in value to make up his surplus value and that'd win you the privilege of paying him $30M per year for the next 4-ish years. Would a team really risk $120M in player assets and 15-20% of its payroll in one player?! I'm thinkin probably not. Thoughts?
Jeff Zimmerman
9:35
Whoa
Paul Swydan
9:35
First thought - this might be the longest question ever.
9:36
I think you're definitely correct on the Trout part. Which is why the Angels are stuck with him. Which I'm sure they're just fine with. As for the Harper deal...I don't know, we'll see. I doubt he signs for 13 years, first of all. But with him seemingly destined to test free agency, it's going to be fascinating to see what he gets.
Certainly what you're saying makes sense.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:37
First, everyone at the time thought Arod contract was insane and the 1st one was OK. And Stanton just got $400M, I think a $600M to $800M contract is reasonable.
The Dude of NY
9:37
Re Phillips: But why do they *need* to play him? Couldn't they just relegate him to a backup roll?
Paul Swydan
9:38
No, the clubhouse would be a disaster if they did that. If the player coming up is a bonafide star, you deal with it. Peraza doesn't have that profile.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:38
He would be a mess then, might as well release him.
Who_Is_Zorbist
9:38
Why are teams not moving fences in more? Home runs are fun and home run saving catches are fun. The Marlins are doing it. The Mets did it. Imagine Kiermaier playing on the Orioles' shallow 7 foot fence 81 times a year. Instead, he's at a homer killing 9 foot fence. Want to fix offense, and make it more entertaining? More HR and more miracle catches.
Paul Swydan
9:40
You say move in, but I think you make a better argument for move down. If your fence isn't 5-7 feet high, then it should be 20-30 feet high. That 9 foot mark is just awkward and aggravating. As for why more teams don't move the fences in, I suspect it's because most teams don't have their ballparks designed in such a way that would allow them to put more seats in. IE, the places where they move it in are occupied by the bullpens, etc.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:40
IMO, there should be a rule that all fences should be 8 to 9 feet hight. Personally, I like a good double or triple more and would like to see some more.
Paul Swydan
9:40
DISAGREEMENTS!
Derek
9:40
Jotcast is blocked at my work. Do you know of any workarounds?
Paul Swydan
9:41
Get a better job?
Kidding, kidding. Beyond waiting the hour for the transcript to go up, no, sorry.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:41
Nope
Paul
9:42
In a 5x5 H2H, the commish is proposing a switch to K/9 instead of K (w/ S, ERA, WHIP, QS). If we make that switch, is there any reason NOT to punt QS and run out a staff of relievers? We have three roster slots for RP/P, so I think I could hit the 10 IP minimum each week with just a few additional SP-eligible relievers.
Paul Swydan
9:43
I mean, I don't like punting any one category, but this would definitely be a viable strategy, especially in head to head format. (Standard reminder that I loathe the head to head format)
Jeff Zimmerman
9:43
I may go with the route, but if I was him, I would push up the IP min.
Paul Swydan
9:43
Yeah, that's a good solution.
Fred
9:43
When are we gonna get more Farnsworth? Can you lock him in a room and make him write 7 times a week?
Paul Swydan
9:44
I think the plan right now is 3 lists per week. There's a list scheduled for tomorrow.
Bill Brasky
9:44
What is a realistic return for Khris Davis for Milwaukee?
Jeff Zimmerman
9:44
I think you will see stuff in bunches as he gets information. He is not Kylie and his connections.
Paul Swydan
9:45
Not much. B prospect.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:45
3-4 starter or a 50 grade prospect. I should look for comps in my THT article
Reggie Smith
9:45
I wonder if lowering fences would lead to more outfield injuries? It always makes me nervous when someone--usually Betts--tumbles into the bullpen at Fenway.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:46
I am into the jump, but not go over height.
Paul Swydan
9:46
Well, Fenway's right field wall is the lowest, I believe. I'm not saying go that low. But to be honest, that situation almost never happens, and it does so with Betts because he's such an amazing athlete.
Fred
9:46
Stroman or R. Iglesias next year, next 3 years?
Paul Swydan
9:46
Stroman
Jeff Zimmerman
9:47
Agree
Agree
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