FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 3/1/16
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Jon
9:20
Would tanking actually benefit any teams in the majors right now? Seems like literally every team could be a couple of smart offseason moves away from contention in any given year
Paul Swydan
9:20
It could benefit one team per year. Generally there is a big drop off between the value of the #1 and #2 pick. After that, I don't see the benefit.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:21
The one area I don't see a ton of discussion is the protected top 10 pick. I could see teams try to get one and then load up on cheap QO free agents and lose their 2nd to 5th round picks.
Bad Hermit
9:22
According to the FG playoff odds: The Cubs chances of winning the World Series are 18.5% right now. The Cubs chances of winning the World Series were 12.5% the day after beating the Pirates in the Wild Card game last year (not every team happened to be 1/8, BTW). My puny mind wants to take the latter every time. I understand that the 2016 projection has them as a virtual lock for making the NLDS as is. But, still, a 6% better chance? Thoughts?
Paul Swydan
9:22
I think this sounds about right, actually.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:23
I agree it is high and I could see them disappoint this season.
Con
9:23
Do you see any break out potential from Schoop? What do you project for the upcoming season?
Paul Swydan
9:24
I do think Schoop has some breakout potential, but I wouldn't project it. I think something between the depth charts projection and the FANS projection.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:24
Had to check his page, his plate discipline will keep his value depressed.
9:25
He could have a crazy BABIP season, but don't count on it.
Casey
9:25
I'm in the 2nd year of my first ever dynasty league and I'm struggling to determine where I am in regards to win vs rebuild, I came in 2nd last year but I think it was fairly fluky. Are guys like Gordon or Lawrie worth holding onto in dynasty when the likes of JP Crawford or AJ Reed are available?
Paul Swydan
9:25
I would jump on Crawford and Reed, personally. I don't think Gordon and Lawrie move the needle.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:26
Agree, those two could be game changers.
George is Curious
9:26
Top five guys you would pay for an AL-only league auction right now?
Paul Swydan
9:27
Trout, Machado, Correa, Sale, Donaldson/Mookie/Kluber/Carrasco
Maybe throw Price into that group for the fifth pick.
Sorry, tough to narrow down to just five.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:27
Altuve, Betts, Kluber, Dyson, Trumbo: All be good values for the price you will pay
Paul Swydan
9:28
Hmmm, I guess we read this question differently.
Oh well.
BC Manatee Country
9:28
I was looking at Alex Cobb in the 2016 BP Handbook. His comps were Erik Bedard, Dustin McGowan, and Brandon McCarthy. Interestingly, Chris Archer, Taylor Guerrieri, Matt Moore, Jake Odorizzi, AND Erasmo Ramirez all have Alex Cobb in their comps!! Is this chance, or does the Rays scouting department look for a particular type of pitcher?
Paul Swydan
9:28
Well, I can't break down for you how BP runs their comps, but I think there's a good chance that the Rays are targeting very specific pitcher types, yes.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:30
They may have figured out the high GB% or FB% pitchers out perform their peripherals. My next THT is on this topic.
Paul Swydan
9:30
Foreshadowing!
Daniel
9:30
I am fairly young, so forgive me - Has the game ever been in a better "state" player-wise? *So* much young talent. So much personality amongst that young talent. Archer, Stroman, etc.

Am I perhaps forgetting a time when this cycle has happened before?
Paul Swydan
9:31
I think it is true that there is more young talent in the game these days. As for the personality amongst them, I doubt it. That is simply a product of there being more avenues to interact with the players, ie social media.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:31
I like the young SS years of Arod, Nomar and Jeter, but PEDs took over. Nope 2015 was the best with the World Champs being the Royals
9:32
I would have loved to see Pedro on Twitter when he was pitching.
nosoupforyou
9:32
Would jose abreu for a.j reed, tony kemp, and a lottery ticket pitcher make sense for both clubs, white sox extend their window with kemp starting at second next year, sign pedro alvarez to dh one year, and reed at first after super 2 cut off. Astros get a sure thing bat for their correa window at below market rate.
Paul Swydan
9:32
Wow, no, sorry. That's not even close to enough for Jose Abreu.
9:33
You said it yourself in the question - that's a below market rate.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:34
No for the White Sox right now, but I think Reed will be better than Abreu. And cheaper
Larry Eagle
9:34
Do you do any "slow drafts". I do one that typically takes 10-14 days and I love it. You avoid knee jerk mistakes, and can really do research as your pick approaches.
Paul Swydan
9:35
I have done them, and loved them, but it cuts both ways. When your free time is at a premium, your pick or the draft can sneak up on you and then you feel really dumb for flubbing it. In a related story, I don't do slow drafts any more.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:36
Two of them, I am doing the industry one now and it is a deep league with David Freese the best player on waivers. It is nice to do some research on the all the scrubs. Another is slow, but it is auction and each owner can start an auction at anytime. Time need there also.
Jimmy
9:36
Minor note, but your voting poll didn't have an option for voted early. What do I answer?!?!?
Paul Swydan
9:37
Just vote yes. Nobody thinks you're special for voting early. :-P
Fish
9:37
In a keep forever league, would you rather have Trevor Bauer or Daniel Norris?
Paul Swydan
9:37
Probably Norris. I'm not a big Trevor Bauer fan. Jack Bauer on the other hand...ROWR!
Jeff Zimmerman
9:37
Neither
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