FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 5/24/16
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Paul Swydan
9:12
But ha, yeah, the Giants are the kind of team that could resurrect Victorino.
Erik
9:12
None of the current AL division leaders were pre-season favorites or even considered likely to make the postseason at all. Which do you think is most likely to finish the season as a division winner? Are any of them good enough to win the pennant?
Paul Swydan
9:13
I think the Mariners and White Sox have a chance to win it, but if you're asking my pick of the two, I'd say the White Sox. Though - HOMER ALERT - I don't see how the Red Sox aren't the favorite right now in the AL.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:13
Red Sox easy, but I think the White Sox have a decent chance. I think the Rangers will come back in the West since they could go get whoever they want with their farm system
Erik
9:14
Odubel Herrera keeps rising up the WAR leaderboards, even as all the experts keep saying, "He's good, but he's not THIS good." So, what do you think he's true talent WAR would be? His 3.9 WAR last year is starting to look more like his floor than his ceiling.
Paul Swydan
9:15
I think it's neither his floor nor his ceiling, but if you want me to pick, I'd still vote ceiling. He's going to be very BABIP reliant. When the hits are falling, he's going to be on tears like this. Either way, he's been a huge success story for the Phillies.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:15
I expect teams to start challenging him and his walk rate to drop
Erik
9:15
If you asked the Phillies' FO privately and off the record why Ryan Howard still had a spot on the roster, what do you think their honest answer would be? They must have some reason other than blind sentimentality, right?
Jeff Zimmerman
9:16
They really haven't had a 1B which is way better than him. He doesn't seem to be impeding anyone's development.
Paul Swydan
9:16
I think there's nothing wrong with blind sentimentality. The Phillies are playing well, but most casual fans likely still only know Howard and Ruiz. And if he can get hot into July and the Phillies can flip him for a prospect, then even better.
9:17
Also what Jeff said.
Bartleby
9:17
Have been offered Goldy for Sale. My pitching is dominating now, with a good pen, Sale, Bum, Carrasco, Tanaka, and some solid spot starters. I need power. Do you buy Goldy getting going, making a run at being a top 5-10 overall player? Alternatively, I hold onto my aces and shop Tanaka for a lesser bat. 12tm mixed. Thanks guys!
Paul Swydan
9:18
I mean, he has a .420 OBP. The power and average are down a little, but I'm not worried about him.
Having said that, you should try to leverage more out of the deal.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:18
Deleat a bunch of words ..... get Goldy
hscer
9:19
Ryan Zimmerman 2-3 w/HR (#6) so far today. Up to 98 wRC+ for the season and slugging .683 the last two weeks. How concerned are we still?
Paul Swydan
9:20
I suppose I'd feel better if he was making better contact, and if pitchers were respecting him more. He's down to 54.8% F-Strike%, which I assume is because pitchers aren't worried about falling behind him anymore.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:21
I think people are hoping for prime Zimmerman and that is not happening. He is a 15-20 HR guy who hits .250.
mateoloco
9:21
Drop Parra for Leonys Martin in 10 team redraft obp league?
Paul Swydan
9:22
I think that's fine, yes.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:22
I think so. You can afford to churn in a 10 team league
Jack Conness
9:22
I offered someone Jason Heyward for Matt Harvey today - banking on a huge Harvey bounce back. He said no and Harvey imploded yet again. What is Harvey's issue right now? His velocity is a tick down, but nothing drastic. I still like him and his FIP is great. Solutions?
Paul Swydan
9:23
I think what Eno said last week is probably still true, that ultimately this is just a cold streak, and that he'll snap back soon.
We just went through this with David Price. Great pitchers aren't great all the time.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:24
I looked at him in detail for a Rotowire article and found the velo drop can make him really hittable. Also, I have little faith in the Mets D helping him out.
Paul Swydan
9:25
The D behind him is definitely an issue. The Mets have basically built their D around the concept that the starters would be limiting contact.
Phil
9:25
Do I roll with Darvish right away, or give him a couple starts before trusting? We have a weekly start limit, and I don't need him this week... but between him and Odorizzi, it's tempting.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:25
Also, his FIP is in the high 3's which would still be disappointing to Harvey's owners
Paul Swydan
9:25
If you don't need him, I think you're fine to hold off for a week.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:26
Don't, he will be limited pitches. Not worth this start
hscer
9:26
Best pitcher in 5 years: someone currently in either the Dodgers' or an NL East organization, or the field?
Paul Swydan
9:26
I'll still take Dodgers org, because I think it'll be Kershaw. Smart bet is the field though.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:26
Field
The Dude of NY
9:27
Russell Martin is playing 2B now.
Paul Swydan
9:27
So he is!
Jeff Zimmerman
9:27
OK
Paul Swydan
9:27
Popping that on while we chat.
Cam
9:28
Most likely scenario for an Urias call-up: Start him then shift to the 'pen, or straight into the 'pen? They can't keep him down any longer, surely - at least not while the big league club is scuffling and needs production.
Paul Swydan
9:28
They certainly can keep him down. He's 19 years old and still has less than 120 IP above A ball.
Jeff Zimmerman
9:29
I think he goes to the bullpen and may save him for the postseason. Maybe a long reliever
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