JotCast | FanGraphs After Dark Chat

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Jeff Zimmerman

9:34

I think you are rearranging deck chairs but why not.

Jay

9:35

Schwarber's stats haven;'t been good but the swstr% is good and are his swing rates. Is it only a matter of time?

Paul Swydan

9:35

I think so. Not everyone hits 14 homers in April.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:36

I think so, The Contact% is fine. The .224 BABIP is the issue.

Merkle's boner

9:37

Why doesn't Ron Guidry get HOF consideration? His numbers are not all that different from Koufaxs' . Oh, and Koufax did pitch on higher mounds.

Paul Swydan

9:38

I think the issue is that Guidry's stats were an accumulation of a lot of decent seasons, whereas Koufax's were more a few fantastic seasons. For example, Guidry had three seasons with 5.5+ WAR, and one with 9+. Koufax had six of 5.5+ WAR and three with 9+, including his last.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:39

It's definitely length vs peak. Mussina's issue IMO. http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=1005124,1007124

Adam Schiff

9:40

If the Yankees are winning what level of prospect do you think theyd be willing to part with for help? Frazier and Sheffield? or someone further away like rutherford? Torres is off limits right?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:41

All but Torres unless he brings in someone like Sale. The Yankees want to win.

Paul Swydan

9:41

Would bank on it being more in the Rutherford vein. I would also assume that Torres is off limits. In fact, promoting Torres may be what they do at the deadline instead of making a big trade.

Matt

9:41

Is the new 10-day DL going to increase value of multi-position utility guys that might have been tinge-fantasy-relevant previously? Gotta have that bench guy to fill in for those single weeks of DL.

Paul Swydan

9:42

I think so, yes. In a league with a thin bench, I've been rostering Adam Rosales because he has 2B-3B-SS eligibility.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:43

Yea, in some ways. I think the top guys will see a bump but most of my issues are from the long term DL stays, not and on-and-off guys

Gary

9:43

Hi! Heading to Boston for college. Paul, was wondering which sections you recommend sitting in at Fenway? I remember you saying you had preference a certain area.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:44

Not behind the poles

BRB, kids fighting

Paul Swydan

9:44

Congrats on attending college in America's greatest city. I like my seats in the Triangle a lot, but I think the most important thing you can do is to avoid seats in the first base-right field grandstand. The seats do not face home plate, they face the outfield, so you end up having to crane your neck the entire game to see what is going on. Might not affect you as a young person, but combine that with the wooden seats and it's death on me these days.

9:45

Also, sitting behind the poles can be bad. Though if you pick the right poles, it doesn't matter much.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:46

back

Matt

9:46

Serious question - intentional, or subconscious, does a longer question have a lower likelihood of being chosen?

Paul Swydan

9:46

I think it doesn't matter to be honest. Sometimes I intentionally select the longer ones because it gives me more time to figure out an answer.

Minty

9:46

Paul do you want Ball or Fulz?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:47

Not sure since we have agreed to let Paul choose them all

Low level Red Sox minor leaguers?

Paul Swydan

9:48

Fultz. For the record, I don't have a problem with LaVar Ball, but the media would lose its mind with him and that won't be fun for anyone. Plus Isaiah is all on board with Fultz, and may have played with him before since they're both U Wash guys. And Fultz may be better too.

Sorry, this is a baseball chat!

The Union

9:48

How come Ray Searage doesnt make more money?

Paul Swydan

9:48

Because he doesn't have a ton of leverage?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:49

Yep, no team as ponied up yet

Rated Rookie

9:49

Rougned Odor turning any sort of corner? Or, has his slump tutored him on the value of a little bit of plate discipline?

Paul Swydan

9:50

I'm going to need to see him maintain this higher May BB% for a lot longer before I buy it as real.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:51

He's a mess. Assume Adam Jone numbers and now he's slower: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2017-home-to-first-times/ I think something is wrong

Matt

9:51

Have you guys ever thought of starting a site called FanFeelings, where you write similar articles, but use no data whatsoever and just go with that you feel?

Paul Swydan

9:51

No, because that would be terrible and no one would read it.

Jeff Zimmerman

9:52

Except maybe Carson

Paul Swydan

9:52

Also, I honestly don't think we're wired as writers to just stop citing statistics.

True, Carson would be good to read in that format. Most of the rest of us wouldn't be though. If we were, we'd just be general columnists at bigger media outlets. :-)

Pikup Androppov

9:52

Say Rafael Devers gets 300 ABs this season. How's he do?

Jeff Zimmerman

9:53

Half a season? Major struggles.

Paul Swydan

9:53

Steamer has him down for .268/.310/.416, for a 89 wRC+, which seems fair.

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