JotCast | FanGraphs After Dark Chat

Paul Swydan

10:44

What is tonight's best matchup?

LAD (Stewart) vs. PIT (Taillon) (7.8% | 8 votes)

BOS (Fister) vs. CLE (Carrasco) (11.8% | 12 votes)

WAS (Roark) vs. HOU (Morton) (23.5% | 24 votes)

COL (Gray) vs. KC (Duffy) (52.9% | 54 votes)

TEX (Ross) vs. LAA (Nolasco) (3.9% | 4 votes)

Total Votes: 102

10:46

20 AL position players have 3+ WAR. Which one surprises you the most?

Andrelton Simmons (3.3% | 4 votes)

Steven Souza Jr. (3.3% | 4 votes)

Didi Gregorious (4.2% | 5 votes)

Elvis Andrus (1.7% | 2 votes)

Justin Smoak (28.3% | 34 votes)

Jonathan Schoop (1.7% | 2 votes)

Logan Morrison (15% | 18 votes)

Tim Beckham (42.5% | 51 votes)

Total Votes: 120

10:47

23 NL position players have 3+ WAR. Which one surprises you the most?

Chris Taylor (45.1% | 55 votes)

Zack Cozart (7.4% | 9 votes)

Tommy Pham (29.5% | 36 votes)

Eugenio Suarez (10.7% | 13 votes)

Travis Shaw (7.4% | 9 votes)

Total Votes: 122

*** Tuesday, August 22 ***

Paul Swydan

9:01

Hi everybody!

Michael

9:01

Buxton or Hicks ROS?

Paul Swydan

9:02

According to the depth charts, it's a wash: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rfang...

9:03

I'm slightly more bullish on Buxton, because I feel like we haven't seen his best baseball and I think we *have* seen Hicks'. But I think it's fairly even. If there's a tiebreaker, it might be playing time. Hicks will likely sit a little more frequently than Buxton just because of the Yankees' depth.

Michael

9:03

Does WAR take park factors into account? If not, do you think it ever will?

Paul Swydan

9:04

Yes. Here's the specific post: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitcher-win-values-explained-part-six/

That is linked from our Glossary entry on WAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

Michael

9:04

What would you rank Andrelton Simmons as a position player? Top 15? Top 25? Or what? (Real-life not fantasy).

Paul Swydan

9:05

Real life, I probably would be more conservative than top 25, if only because I'd like to see the good hitting keep up for a longer period of time than the bad hitting.

ham porter

9:05

I was thinking that the Blue Jays should sell high on Justin Smoak this offseason, but 1B/DH types didn't draw much interest last winter in Free Agency. This year, that class includes Hosmer, Duda, Moreland, Alonso, LoMo, Santana, Beltran and Holliday. Do you think there will be demand for a Justin Smoak ($4.25M in '17, $6.5M option in '18) and what could the Jays expect in return?

Paul Swydan

9:06

The only demand I could see for him would be from a similarly cheap team like Toronto, and unfortunately with him already being on Toronto, one cheap team is already spoken for. Blue Jays are probably better off just riding it out. He's basically already earned his whole contract in year one.

El Chupacabra

9:06

Gallo or Devers in a dynasty league?

Paul Swydan

9:06

Oh, Devers. Not even close.

Cam

9:06

I'm firmly in the pro-Robot Umps camp, as to me it makes sense that we should be getting calls right, instead of continuing a system of 60 year old men trying to figure out if a 90mph+ ball goes through an imaginary box, 250 times a game. Realistically, is the main holdup to this the potential for the Umpires Union to throw a tanty? Or is it apprehension towards a significant change to the dynamic of our game?

Paul Swydan

9:08

I think that the robot vs human umps is only a concern for a small portion of an audience such as FanGraphs, and that makes it a REALLY REALLY small portion of the general baseball audience. In other words, MLB has a lot bigger fish to fry, and without a tangible, workable solution in place (which I doubt MLB has) we aren't going to see a change any time soon.

Martinez

9:08

There's two games a couple weeks ago, LAD @ AZ, that don't have Pitch Info data, does it not exist?

Paul Swydan

9:09

That is a fantastic question, and if you can point me to the specific dates, I will ask about it internally.

Doug

9:09

Could Verlander make sense for the Angels? They need durability in their rotation both now and next year, and have money to spend with Hamilton coming off at the end of the season.

Paul Swydan

9:10

They would be a team that makes sense only if Detroit just wants to clear cap space and isn't worried about getting good prospects in return for him. That's certainly not the way I'd go if I was Detroit, but it's a possibility.

Timbers > Sounders

9:10

If you had to pick three of the Mariners outfielders to consistently start, which would you pick of Dyson, Gamel, Heredia, Haniger, and Martin?

Paul Swydan

9:11

Dyson, Haniger and Gamel

John Gibbons' Waddle

9:12

How crazy is this Josh Donaldson at SS thing? I get the Jays lineup leaves much to be desired and therefore getting creative is key. Could this be the start of a more "little league" approach to fielding a lineup, with players becoming more multi-eligible then before?

Paul Swydan

9:12

First, that's a great handle. Gibbons is basically a monocle away from being The Penguin.

9:13

Second, I dunno, that one had me flummoxed. I'd be surprised if this became a regular thing though. Donaldson is too valuable to dick around with consistently. My guess is the players are always bugging Gibbons to let them have a little fun and he acquiesced.

Phamily Man

9:13

What happens to the Sox when Pedroia comes back? At first it seemed Devers demoted, but he's been boss. Nunez becomes a backup? Moreland?

Paul Swydan

9:14

Devers is going to play. That much I'm sure of. Nunez will probably split time between first and second. Moreland doesn't need to play at all IMO, and it seems like Pedroia will be gimpy the rest of the way.

Oddball Herrera

9:14

My argument for Chris Taylor - really the biggest surprise w.r.t. Pham is that he's healthy, he was always an interesting player. Taylor...if anyone bothered to have an opinion on him prior to the last couple months, it was probably to include him in the great constellation of failed Mariners prospects.

Paul Swydan

9:15

That's cold. Taylor is a great example of why you always want to take a good second/third/fourth look at a once-promising player.

Souza-Q

9:15

Hey Paul. Wondering where you stand on the Buxton Byronaissance? Does he keep it up ROS?

Paul Swydan

9:15

If you don't know, I'm a big Buxton fan. Earlier in the season, I wrote that Minnesota needed to just let him play. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/let-him-play/

9:16

And then in late June I noted that he had cut into his K%. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/in-celebration-of-the-brewers-and-twins...

And he keeps cutting into it. I'm very encouraged. By WAR, he's already having his best season, and we still have 4-5 weeks left.

Morris Buttermaker

9:16

Have you watched much of the little league world series? Are you surprised how many kids named Tebow as their favorite player? The oldest of them were toddlers when he was at florida.

Paul Swydan

9:17

No, I find it exploitative in a way I'm not comfortable with, although that catch by that one kid diving over the CF fence was amazing. Not too surprised by kids listing Tebow as their favorite player, he's all anyone can seem to talk about ever.

Mr. Roboto

9:17

How far off are we from technology aided strike/ball calls? I am not suggesting full robot umpire situation, but perhaps a tool that allows the Umpire to relay strike/ball calls from a K-zone type display. Also - sensors in bases/balls for accuracy of reviews and even more advanced analytics. Gotta be within 10 years i'd think. Thoughts?

Paul Swydan

9:18

Within 10 years seems fair, but I'd be on the more conservative end of that 10 years. MLB and the Umpires Union aren't even talking about it yet, nevermind having put a plan together and thought through the logistics of implementing it in all 30 parks.

I wouldn't hold your breath.

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