JotCast | FanGraphs Book Club - The Shift

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Paul Swydan

9:01

Hi everybody!

Doing some polls. How is everybody doing tonight?

9:02

I finished ___% of the book.

0-19 (0% | 0 votes)

20-39 (12.5% | 1 vote)

40-59 (12.5% | 1 vote)

60-79 (0% | 0 votes)

80-99 (25% | 2 votes)

100!!! (50% | 4 votes)

What's a book? (0% | 0 votes)

Total Votes: 8

9:03

How will you be spending Thanksgiving?

Eating and drinking too much. (40% | 2 votes)

Avoiding family members. (0% | 0 votes)

Reading baseball books. (0% | 0 votes)

All of the above? (60% | 3 votes)

Total Votes: 5

9:05

So, OK, we're talking about Russell's book tonight. This is the first of the three books we've done for the Book Club that I didn't review for THT. But I loved this book. My favorite part was how Russell weaved in personal stories.

9:06

I thought it kept the book grounded. It also had the trademark touches, sharp wit about what people get wrong about the book without being acidic or bitter.

about the game, that is.

9:08

The other thing I really liked was his ability to use famous examples to kick start each discussion. Like the Gordon trying to score in Game 7 example.

Andrea's Fault

9:08

Plus weaving in all the personal stories stresses one of the book's key points--baseball players are people too. It's too easy for us to think of them existing only in game time (and perhaps fantasy baseball makes that even more of a problem).

Paul Swydan

9:09

Yes, that's a very good point. That comes across really well in the discussion about David Ortiz bunting. It's not just whether it would be the optimal outcome.

9:11

It also comes across in the chapter, "Why Does It Feel So Icky?" It's one thing to know the math, but it's another to put it into practice. I thought he did a great job of conveying that.

9:13

One of the big problems with non-fiction books like this is that it can feel like old news by the time it comes out. I remember every year holding my breath for the two months between when people submitted essays for the THT Annual and when we published the book. I didn't think this book felt stale though. What did you guys think?

Andrea's Fault

9:14

After all, how many of us feel after each day at work, "Jeez, I nailed it today!" But if baseball players don't nail it every day, fans aren't happy. The psychology angle Carleton brings is wonderfully illuminating.

Paul Swydan

9:15

Absolutely. Closers are expected to never blow a save. Starters are expected to put up a quality start every game. Etc. We have very little tolerance for poor performance, even in isolation.

Andrea's Fault

9:19

And there are so many reasons to not do well--you might just swing through a strike, or you might be thinking about your mom and her ALS.

Paul Swydan

9:20

Absolutely. Or maybe the pillow in the hotel was too lumpy or firm. I find that hotel pillows are rarely to my liking, because I don't like firm pillows. I couldn't imagine having to travel all the time. I'd probably become one of those people who travels with their own pillow.

Scott Lu

9:21

Hi guys, I feel the same can be said about Mike Jirschele's call in 2015 World Series, it could be the fear toward those little tolerance that he made a math proven poor decision to hold the runner.

Paul Swydan

9:22

Definitely. No one wants to be responsible for the final out of the World Series. If he sends him, and Gordon is out by a lot, is he fired on the spot? If he holds him, maybe something else good happens and everyone forgets about the decision.

9:24

I also liked the way Russell framed each discussion. For instance, in the "This Isn't a Babysitters Club" chapter, he breaks down all the things a manager actually does during a game. I thought that was great.

9:25

I do think a lot of what makes a book effective is how it is organized. If you flit from one tangent to the next, it's hard to keep people's attention.

svan

9:27

russell's technical chops are universally regarded, and part of what made the shift special to me was his ability to go beyond speculating about what implementation of saber ideas would do/mean/require psychologically. that said, i think the point that has stuck with me most was his materialist take on why media, spectators, etc. grew to appreciate batting average over, say, plate discipline (page 215 or thereabout, i think). it is [or was previousy] impossible for nearly everyone to tell how many pitches just off the corner a batter laid off of, whereas hits were very easy to observe.

Paul Swydan

9:28

Yeah, that is a great passage. If you didn't make it that far, here's my favorite part:

9:31

"By the time radio and television were widespread, baseball already had an entire language, poetic and numerical, that it used to talk about itself. The fundamental assumption of that language was what happened at the end of the at-bat was what mattered, with special preference given to things that the fans could see from the stands. Television might be able to show the movement of the pitches, but by the time television came around, there were few words to describe how pitch movement affected the game and the fans watching at home didn't grow up speaking them."

I think that last part is the most important. Our grandparents (or great-grandparents, depending on how old you are) simply didn't grow up watching baseball the same way we do today. That's certainly not something I had ever pondered before.

Russell Carleton

9:32

And good morning, good afternoon, good evening, as the case may be across these many time zones.

Paul Swydan

9:32

Hey Russell!

GYatch

9:33

Carleton does a great job at revealing a-ha moments. Why are we so results-focused as baseball fans, beyond, of course, we want our teams to win? We are certainly entering the great age of considering the process, thanks to Statcast and more. And it is a whole new language. For if you can't speak about it, does it happen?

Russell Carleton

9:34

Paul told me that if I showed up, there would be cookies, but apparently, you have to accept their privacy policy for that.

Paul Swydan

9:34

Absolutely. It's why so many people love Tampa Bay and Oakland right? They're thinking about the game the right way, even if it doesn't end with wins.

Wait, I thought you were making cookies, Russell?

Russell Carleton

9:35

I grew up making cookies with my dad, so I can whip up a batch.

Paul Swydan

9:35

Nice!

svan

9:35

thanks, yes, that exactly. a blindspot induced by the inability to measure, and then also the inability to communicate the importance thereof. actually also surely caused by the inability to think about a topic because we're missing the words needed to do so, another carelton touchstone :-)

Paul Swydan

9:36

Missing the words, and missing the perspective.

Speaking of, Russell, how did you go about selecting the topics for the book?

Russell Carleton

9:36

There's a point to be made in that the goal is eventually to win the game, but I think there's also some beauty in just watching a team punch above its weight.

9:37

The topics that ended up in the book were a mangled version of how I had originally laid things out. I was originally going to form them around different cognitive biases that people have, and use examples to show that... but it didn't work.

9:38

If you read the first 3-4 chapters, you can kinda see me winding up toward that

Paul Swydan

9:38

Oh, interesting. Yeah, definitely. Why didn't that approach work? Not relatable enough? Not enough material?

Russell Carleton

9:39

The material was there, but it turned out not to be a very interesting narrative

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