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FanGraphs Phillies vs. Padres NLCS Game 1 Chat
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bosoxforlife
10:11
Would that be a hit next year or will teams play 4 1/2 man infields?
Davy Andrews
10:11
Ben Clemens
10:12
I strongly disagree with Mike on these
I'd get rid of the RF before the LF
Davy Andrews
10:12
I was kind of thinking the same thing.
But I respect his commitment to the bit.
Kyle Kishimoto
Ben Clemens
10:12
Hitters have clear oppo tendencies on balls in the air, and plenty of their pulled air balls are homers anyway
Erik
10:13
What does it even mean to "pitch to contact"? Don't even the supposed pitch to contact guys prefer it when hitters swing and miss?
Kyle Kishimoto
10:13
yes, it's a dumb buzzword used by boomer broadcasters who like it when pitchers get good babip luck
Ben Clemens
10:13
It's a real thing though
I think it's overused
But like, cutters and sweepers induce weaker contact
you'd PREFER a swing and miss
Kyle Kishimoto
10:13
yeah, we know pitchers do have a degree of control over the quality of contact they allow, but the magnitude of it is significantly overstated
Ben Clemens
10:15
Good way of putting it. It's both an announcer trope and slightly true.
bosoxforlife
10:14
The idea of pulling the RF in intrigues me.
Ben Clemens
10:14
but there are pitch types that induce weaker contact than other pitch types. Your sinker/sweeper type should run lower wOBACON than four-seam curve types
Kyle Kishimoto
10:15
yeah i agree - sweepers to same handed hitters get better results on contact than fastballs, but that's definitley not what the broadcasters are talking about when they say "he's pitching to contact"
Finnegan’s Seam Shifted Wake
10:16
Do east/west pitch types induce weaker contact even against hitters who have the platoon advantage? I know they tend to have bigger splits
Ben Clemens
10:16
They sure don't. You're exactly right here. I looked into the sweeping slider part of it earlier this year:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-secret-benefit-and-cost-of-sweeping-sl...
RTJ
10:17
Framber Valdez would like to talk about pitching to contact
(but he's obviously an outlier)
Ben Clemens
10:17
Haha I was gonna say, yeah. We'd all like to be Framber
Jon
10:17
Would you guys pull Wheeler now if you're Rob Thomson?
Jeremy
10:17
I would send Wheeler back out for the 8th.
Ben Clemens
10:18
I would send him back out
Kyle Kishimoto
10:18
if they let him face the meat of the order for the third time then why not let him face the bottom
Ben Clemens
10:18
Yeah
He was losing velo to be fair
10:19
You know.... I kinda get it the more I look at it
Erik
10:19
Highly doubt even analytics calls for him to be pulled here, but they're going to blame analytics when they pull him.
Kyle Kishimoto
10:19
every decision that ends up not working out gets blamed on analytics by a portion of the crowd
Ben Clemens
10:19
I don't think I would still
but his stuff was not the same
in that last inning
bosoxforlife
10:20
I am about to have a fit. Wheeler has thrown 83 bleeping pitches. Great pitchers don't only use shear velocity to get hitters out
Ben Clemens
10:20
His movement was down too
I mean I'd still have him in there anyway
I don't love the Philly bullpen at all and Wheeler locates really well
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