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FanGraphs Red Sox/Astros ALCS Game 3 Chat
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AvatarDan Szymborski
10:34
Guest
10:35
I think the 2005 WS was the single most boring World Series of my lifetime.
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:36
Maybe try best three games?
AvatarJay Jaffe
10:37
2005 had some good games for a sweep. The 2014 AL Wild Card was wild af
10:38
but yeah, that list... doesn't work
Uncle Spike
10:38
Expectations for Greinke if he starts game 4? Starting someone that has only thrown 49 pitches over the last month seems awfully dangerous.
AvatarJay Jaffe
10:38
I think the context of this postseason tells us he's going through the order twice and not much more. I wouldn't have high hopes
10:39
He's not going to pitch 8 shutout innings and turn it over to the closer
TC
10:39
The list is mostly just 'Team [x] finds many ways to lose inventively in as few games as possible' (note two Twins-Yankees series)
APODionysus
10:40
Jay is that through the order twice in one or two innings?
Guest
10:41
I could see Dusty giving Greinke a *very* long leash, given Dusty still seems like a more traditional manager and the Astros' bullpen will be depleted after tonight.
AvatarJay Jaffe
10:42
If Greinke were fully healthy, sure. But he wouldn't be a huge question mark if he were healthy.
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:42
Ranking by three swingiest games is a bit better
There are some up there that don't excite me, but there are a *lot* of great series at the top of it
AvatarJay Jaffe
10:42
wait isn't that just the same list as before
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:42
oops, wrong link
10:43
AvatarJay Jaffe
10:43
that starts to look pretty good except I have no memory of that Rockies-Phillies series
Zack
10:43
Why divide by # of plays? Can we see it sorted by total WPA change
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:44
I can do that too
Zack
10:45
Also might be worth weighing later games in the series to try to get change in % winning the series instead of % winning the game. Sounds difficult though
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:45
It's something I could figure out with more time
But I'm kinda doing this on the fly!
Series ranked by probability change in top 3 games
AvatarJay Jaffe
10:46
that's got some bangers
1995 Mariners-Yankees was bonkers
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:47
Here's the least probability change in top 3 games
AvatarJay Jaffe
10:48
i think  you have to ditch the 1-game WCs in both lists
separate category
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:49
Yeah, I don't have a neat way of doing it without starting over with the data
johnk
10:49
I'm intrigued by that sox/giants 1912 series
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:49
Wait, I know how I can filter it
10:50
the 1912 WS had a great reputation
It's also the only best-of-eight WS
One of the games was called for darkness
called in the 11th with a 6-6 tie!
Can you imagine the hoopla that would ensue
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