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FanGraphs World Series Game 1 Chat
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TuffyGoeswich
9:05
Is ZiPS still sprinkling in playoff performance into next year's projections? Does a hot run like Yordan or Rosario move the needle that much?
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:05
It does, it can make a difference at the margins. It did for Arozarena and Daniel Murphy
Quarantino Martinez
9:05
Even the musical taste is gory
GoBarves
9:06
Alex, is the parity in baseball due to salary cap or due to the randomness of baseball playoffs in SSS?
AvatarAlex Sonty
9:06
Baseball is just weird.
So much room for devilmagik
Jake Cave
9:06
When Billy Beane says "my shit doesn't work in the postseason" in Moneyball, do you guys think that's true? Are the playoffs too small of a sample size?
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:06
Yes
9:07
You'll literally find nothing correlated with postseason excellence other than preseason excellence, once you take into consideration the top part of the roster gets a larger % of the playing time
errr season excellence, not preseason excellence
I love those liners when the camera can't catch up
Quarantino Martinez
9:08
I know the HOU lineup is seen as superior, but Chas and Maldonado are a pretty lackluster 8-9 for a ws team in 2021
AvatarAlex Sonty
9:08
Chas is fine, Maldonado is there to catch and get the ball to the outfield.
Oddball Herrera
9:08
Trouble isn’t small market teams getting into the playoffs, trouble is doing it consistently. Money buys getting you there every year, while small market teams rotate and get a couple shots a decade
ChuckNChino
9:08
Mason Ale Works, Checkerboard Silver (IPA), over here.
GoBarves
9:08
Love the weirdness. Embrace it!
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:09
Four of the ten winningest teams in the last decade are St. Louis (#2), Cleveland (#3), Tampa Bay (#6), and Oakland (#8)
5 Run Homer
9:09
From my experience as a hockey and baseball fan, “parity” usually just means the randomness of the postseason, and that’s a good thing
AvatarAlex Sonty
9:09
Parity in sports is usually code for rampant mediocrity.
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:09
And yes, St. Louis is a small market.
A very well-run small market team.
Jake Cave
9:09
Do you think teams should practice similar game environments to the postseason in the regular season? Like bringing in their ace to close out a close game or using more openers?
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:09
You're going to tire out your team by May doing that
ChuckNChino
9:10
how many WS between those winningest teams in the past decade?
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:10
What does that have to do with anything?
There's one WS a year. It's a volatile measure that you don't use for this kind of analysis.
9:11
Or at least, an argument why large market mumbo jumbo suddenly kicks in during the postseason.
Harmon Ripkowski
9:11
As long as you get to the postseason, you got a shot
AvatarAlex Sonty
9:12
And, again, everyone in the postseason has a shot like no other of the major US sports. Even the NHL is easier to handicap, series by series.
ChuckNChino
9:12
NHL used to reshuffle the playoffs after every round too
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:13
There are as many appearance in the WS by Tampa teams as teams in NY over the last decade. But it'd be bizarre to use that as backing for an argument that it proves NY teams have it harder to make the WS.
Brooks
9:14
It's absolutely good for MLB/"baseball" to have one or two really good, successful, dominant teams go deep in the playoffs consistently
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:14
Lopez/Matthews/Baumer estimated that for MLB playoffs to have the same "best team advances" record as the NBA, you'd have to play best of 75 series.
ChuckNChino
9:14
is 10 years big enough sample size?
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:14
No.
Mr. Hypothetical
9:14
If all the other AL teams decided to collude in secret against HOU beginning this offseason, how many wins could they shave off HOU in 2022?
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:14
Not many.
Mrs. Phanatic
9:14
I’m down for a best of 75 series!
AvatarDan Szymborski
9:15
Writing a gamer for Game 63 of a best of 75 sounds like some kind of weird hell fantasy.
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