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FanGraphs World Series Game 3 Chat
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Ben Clemens
10:47
Yeah if you win G6, you probably win the series 75% of the time
10:48
Now I'm on that as the answer
The Stranger
10:48
Game 5, maybe? Big deal in a 2-2 series and a possible series ending win
Ben Clemens
10:48
if every game is 50/50, the G6 winner necessarily wins the series 75% of the time. That's quite solid
Chatz
10:48
That’s why the game needs more balls in play, that’s basically the first “highlight” in like 3 innings. I still watch every baseball game though.
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:48
You have to change the ball/rules in a way to incentivize it
Ben Clemens
10:49
Guess we can't talk about how the Astros sacrificed defense for offense JUST yet
Russ
10:49
What's your wine of choice for the night, Ben?
Ben Clemens
10:49
a blend from a really neat local winery, Clif Family
which is actually founded by the clif bar founders, but is a separate thing
Luke Hooper
10:50
Yea considering the low score there's been a big lack of defensive plays.
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:50
I like when he says "deals with Luke Jackson" like he's a crabby customer
Ben Clemens
10:50
Sir, I'm trying to help you.
Clemlibby
10:50
Are you eating a Clif bar with it?
Ben Clemens
10:50
No but they do offer a tasting where they pair Clif bars with wine!
Luke Hooper
10:51
Now that is weird.
Ben Clemens
10:51
Yeah I've never done it, haha
The Stranger
10:51
White chocolate macadamia nut is the best pairing with everything
Floyd
10:51
“This wine pairs well with our chocolate-peanut butter”
Russ
10:51
Hey I actually know of them. I'm in SF as well.
Ben Clemens
10:51
Oh nice! I highly recommend them, the food truck there is great too
chair user
10:52
How do y'all feel about his 4f/sl usage and do you think he should throw more heaters?
eastman
10:52
Inferring (dangerous) the intent of the question (which victory is most predictive of the series outcome) maybe series winning victories should be excluded from the calculation
Chatz
10:52
Totally agree, one day we’ll deaden them ball and lower the mound and it’ll be awesome until someone figures out how to get around it.
Ben Clemens
10:52
We talking about Jackson? If so, I'm fine with the pitch mix, it's nots like he's pinpoint with the fastball either
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:53
But does lowering the mound really change the *incentives* to an all-or-nothing offense?
Special Guest
10:53
What's the probability that this ends a no hitter at this point?
Ben Clemens
10:53
Dan, I've never thought about this seriously
But, have you?
10:55
Offhand, 10%-ish
1-(1-.270)^7
Luke Hooper
10:55
That Tucker liner was 108.9 and had a .670 expected batting average.
Fire Ken Tremendous
10:56
What's up gang? Sorry I'm late
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:56
It's too late to make me think
Guest
10:56
2022 Steamer projections are out.  Where are our new 2022 ZIPS projections, Dan?
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:56
You gotta wait!
Chatz
10:56
I think deadening the ball further might, with the lowering of the mound just counteracting the current strikeout rate (maybe) so as to hopefully not decrease overall offensive baseball? It probably wouldn’t work.
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:56
That would work better, I think
The Stranger
10:56
I think you have to deaden the ball to make spraying line drives an optimal hitting strategy again
AvatarDan Szymborski
10:57
I'd like to see one of the independent league test 88 feet to first
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