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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Brad Johnson
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Brad Johnson
11:56
Hey everyone, thanks for joining today's chat. These are always a blast. We'll get started in a few minutes.
Meanwhile, I'll nudge a few dynasty trade proposals along...
Lloyd
12:01
Brad, do you anticipate another injury-filled regular season, since players haven’t been able to coordinate with team medical staffs and may face another shortened Spring training?  If so, how would that change your planning for this year?  Thanks for joining MLBTR—great to have you here!
Brad Johnson
12:02
Good question. Honestly, I don't think there need be any special conditions for an injury-filled season. It's the new normal as teams and players both accept that issues we treated as things to play through in the past often require months of recovery.
The stoppage can't possibly help matters, but we should be ready for 2021 to look pretty normal even under perfect conditions.
12:05
I think it affects my planning on the margins. There are certain guys who are actively recovering from injuries which tend to have long-tails. Like shoulder issues, knees, core, etc. Most soft-tissue ailments. It's sensible to be a little more wary of them, especially if their recovery timeline falls within a month of whenever the seasons starts
And by long-tail, I mean the athlete will return to game play before they're 100%.
GBS42
12:06
Hi, Brad.  Thanks for the chat.  I have a category question for 5x5 leagues.  With fewer and fewer clear-cut, season-long closers, we are considering a move to SV+HLD.  What are your thoughts on this, and would you weight the two stats the same or something like 2xSV + 1xHLD?
Brad Johnson
12:07
I'm not a fan of holds personally, I'd rather make some design decisions in the league to give managers a deeper bullpen. i.e. add another RP-only slot.
12:08
Platforms define a "hold" slightly differently (which is mostly just annoying)
Saves leaders always outperform holds leaders. So even while holds are more plentiful, the fantasy managers with saves are going to crush the category.
12:09
I do prefer the 2xSV+1xHld formula, but I see it as a compromise offer for leaguemates who insist on having holds
12:10
You're still focused entirely on rostering saves and future saves in a 2xSV league
Personally, I *like* the closer chaos these days. It makes the game harder, and I'm all for adding difficulty.
12:11
^These are all just my opinion. There's nothing objective here.
Rene S., Dyer, IN
12:11
Any honest idea as to the direction and end result of the new CBA so we can get going with the actual business of the game itself?
Brad Johnson
12:11
I've been asked to focus on fantasy topics so I won't get too into this.
12:12
My read is that, if we're starting close to on time, things will look pretty familiar in the new CBA.
12:13
Sweeping changes, such as those the PA has requested, will probably require a lengthy delay to the season. That's just my personal read of the situation.
Josh Lowe
12:13
Do you think Nick Solak gets a full time gig for the Rangers?  Do you think he turns the corner of MLB relevance?
Brad Johnson
12:17
It seems like the Rangers are setting him up to be a (very) poor man's Chris Taylor. So there might be weeks where they're full strength and Solak plays twice. Usually, somebody will be hurt so he'll have a spot. As for turning the corner, there's nothing analytically pointing at a breakout. But he also has the traits for the light bulb to pop. If it happens, he'll be a tidy core performer. Think ~15-18 HR, 10-12 SB, maybe a .280 average and .355 OBP. Anything beyond that would be a surprise.
12:18
Sort of hoping he'll be a better Josh Rojas. And expecting less.
Rich C
12:18
Brad!  Hey .. glad to be seeing you with MLBTR!  Have always jumped to your articles at RW.  Always felt I getting a bunch of unasked questions answered when reading your stuff.  Today:  is K% - BB% the go-to stat if you could have only one to use for pitchers' quality of stuff?
Brad Johnson
12:19
For me, yes.
12:20
I like the combination of power and simplicity. And unlike a lot of all-in-one stats, it tells us a LOT for fantasy purposes too.
12:21
csw% is another good one for getting a clear picture from one number. The more Statcast-derived stats seem to require more interpretation.
12:22
Obviously, it's best to treat these stats as a starting point before focusing on more granular data - if you're doing analysis that is.
Alex
12:22
If spring training ends up getting shortened, which players become most more difficult to evaluate? (Health health, role, and other playing time expectations-wise.) Put another way, are there players you're waiting till spring to evaluate that might become wild cards with a shortened spring?
Brad Johnson
12:24
To be honest, I always try to put off as much analysis as I can until Spring Training begins. It's easier said then done - there are always January draft I need to prep for. But I find the later I can put off updating my priors, the less likely I am to over-anchor to past-season performance.
That felt like a jargony explanation. Put another way, I mislead myself less when I delay my prep until immediately before my drafts.
12:26
I should also point out that I do this full time so what's right for me isn't right for everyone.
Bruce
12:26
Playing Ottoneu for first time.  Any particular words of advice on drafting or distribution of cap space.
Brad Johnson
12:27
If it's a startup league, go tall AND wide. As in, pick up some pricey elite players, grab mid-priced core performers, then snag about 15 $1 guys at the end.
I'll try to avoid writing a full article here...
12:29
Ottoneu is dynasty-lite so it's tempting to look at going young as an option. Under the standard fgpts settings, the building from youth approach is a trap. I've never seen it work. You build from Mike Trout and Juan Soto and other guys who earn 2X points per PA or IP than others of their position
12:31
If you're joining an existing league, the key is to build a foundation that shields arbitration money (a process that happens in November) from all landing on your best players. It's not enough to spike the next Juan Soto, you need to hit a couple affordable young players.
12:32
I have a couple dozen articles covering pretty much every angle in ottoneu scattered in the rotographs archive. Remind me on Twitter and I'll pass you them. @baseballateam.
Steve
12:33
What is the outlook for playing time for Mauricio Dubon in 2022?  Utility guy or finally settling into a position?  Any guess on which position is most likely?
Brad Johnson
12:34
I'm not even sure he's going to make the roster. I'm pretty sure he's out of options so that's a point in his favor. Somebody would pick him up if the Giants pass.
12:36
I have not yet seen an everyday profile from him. I know you can kind of dream on 15/15 performance if he plays every day which is solid for a fantasy backup. But I don't think he'll be relevant unless he's manning center field for like the Phillies or otherwise starting in a tiny venue.
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